Revolution～

with SpaceX listing Friday and robotaxi ramping, is the whole Musk complex about to move together? asking cos I only hold TSLA rn 🙋

robotaxi live in Austin and the market gave it a polite +5%. either it's priced in or the doubters still doubting 🤔

Tesla reinstating the Syrah deal is about securing non-China graphite at scale. Graphite for anodes is still overwhelmingly China-dominated. Any alternative supply matters for long-run EV supply chain security, and Australia is a natural partner for this. The % is small now but the direction is right.

Li Auto Q1 2026: revenue RMB 23 billion, down 11% YoY. Deliveries 95,142 units, up just 2.5%. Gross margin collapsed to 7.9%.

Q2 guidance came in below analyst expectations: 95,000–100,000 deliveries, revenue RMB 24.1–25.4 billion. Management is not raising the bar.

The premium EREV segment is more crowded now. Aito M9 and BYD's flagship lineup are both competing in the same price bracket. The moat that drove Li Auto's 2023–2024 run looks thinner heading into H2.

Li Auto revenue down 11%, Q2 guidance misses. Meanwhile Xpeng loses RMB 1.78 billion but delivery guidance beats. Both are "wins" depending on how you squint 🤡 EV earnings season is something else.

1/ Xiaomi Q1 2026 results out tonight at 7:30pm HK. Stock down 24% year-to-date, near 52-week lows. The bar is extremely low. Here's what actually matters. 🔍

2/ Auto gross margin. Q4 2025 came in at 22.7%, down from 25.5% in Q3. Culprit: model mix, fewer high-margin SU7 Ultras shipped late in the quarter. Q1 is when new-gen SU7 deliveries started ramping in volume. If margin recovers toward 24%+, the EV thesis gets a clean data point.

3/ Memory component costs. Xiaomi flagged this explicitly on the Q4 call as a headwind for smartphone margins. Whether that pressure eased in Q1 matters for the overall gross margin line. A smartphone margin recovery alongside EV stabilisation would be a double positive.

4/ Confirmed: April deliveries hit a record 30,000 units. SU7 Ultra sold out. If Q1 total came in above 100,000 units, the path to 550,000 for 2026 becomes visible. That number anchors the entire long-term valuation case. 🚗

5/ The RMB 200 billion R&D commitment for 2026-2030 is the multi-year play. Tonight's print is specifically about whether near-term margins are stabilising. If yes, the drawdown is an entry. If no, there is more pressure ahead.

SpaceX IPO at $75B+ valuation would be largest in years. But space infrastructure monetization still early stage

SpaceX IPO at $75B+ valuation would be largest in years. But space infrastructure monetization still early stage

Xpeng earnings last of the week. EV margins still under pressure

Xpeng earnings last of the week. EV margins still under pressure

Xiaomi SU7 in stores! Finally. Might go check it out this weekend🤩

Xiaomi SU7 in stores! Finally. Might go check it out this weekend🤩

XPeng says full autonomy in 1-3 years. Sounds optimistic. Might buy some calls🤔

XPeng says full autonomy in 1-3 years. Sounds optimistic. Might buy some calls🤔

I'm trying to wrap my head around $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) dropping 5.46% on a $68.1B quarter… with $78B guidance.

On paper, that’s not a “bad” report. That’s a monster report.

Then you’ve got Wolfe Research flagging three risks, like Blackwell timing, AI spending durability and Custom chip competition

But they still call NVDA their top AI pick for 2026.

Morgan Stanley reiterated Overweight before earnings, talking about “clear visibility into 2026.”

Goldman Sachs keeps a $250 target. That’s ~30% upside from here.

And the stock still tanks.

So what is this really? Expectations were just too high? Big money trimming after a massive run? Or the market finally stress-testing AI spend assumptions?

Feels less like “numbers are bad” and more like “valuation + positioning + nerves.”

My portfolio is definitely feeling it. But fundamentally? Nothing in this report screams broken story.

Either analysts are asleep at the wheel…

Or this is just one of those moments where the market overshoots on emotion.

I’m still holding. Painful, but holding.

Citron calling $Sandisk(SNDK.US) a short at these levels is classic top-calling behavior. Stock up 1200% in one year and they suddenly appear . But SK Hynix just told investors NO customer can get enough supply in 2026 and prices rising through year end . Who do I believe, the short seller or the actual memory manufacturer?

Crypto bloodbath today: BTC -5% to $64k, ETH down with it. $Circle(CRCL.US) -4% to $63.07 on 5.28B volume . Market dumping everything crypto-related. But USDC circulation just hit $73.7B, +108% YoY . Volume washed out, fundamentals intact. Classic overreaction. 📉

$AMD(AMD.US) guaranteeing $300M Crusoe loan to buy AMD chips for Ohio data center . Also supplying India 200MW data center build . This is Jensen Huang playbook - create your own demand. Stock down 7.5% YTD while NVDA flat. Market sleeping on demand creation.

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) 2026 revenue is +30% YoY guided, with a 2024-2029 CAGR "approach 25%". 2nm H2 mass production, A16 ready by the end of the year, and overseas FABs diversifying risk. Motley Fool calls this "AI winner hiding in plain sight". 27x forward PE for 25% structural growth. I buy 100 shares monthly through DCA, without market timing.

$Netflix(NFLX.US) has seen trading volumes of around 40 million shares for three consecutive days, yet the price has been consolidating around 79-80. This isn't a structure that retail investors could create by dumping shares. It's clear that large funds are rebalancing, while algoto on the buy side is slowly accumulating.

$AMD(AMD.US) MI400 series ramp and server share gains are the real story for 2026. Everything else is noise

The recent surge in discussion surrounding $Circle(CRCL.US) essentially reflects a revaluation of the stablecoin narrative by the market. Circle's core is USDC, and its revenue model is highly correlated with interest rates, offering significant returns during periods of high interest rates. However, the market is currently more concerned with two points: the progress of regulatory compliance and the actual penetration of $Circle(CRCL.US) into the payment system. Many consider it a pure cryptocurrency beta, but it's more like a financial infrastructure stock. If USDC penetrates deeper into banking and cross-border settlements in the future, its valuation logic may be entirely different. Personally, I feel that short-term price movements are driven by BTC, while the medium to long term depends on the practical application of payments.

$Intel(INTC.US) After nearly doubling in six months, this sideways action feels healthy. The market is reassessing valuation, execution risk, and the pace of Intel’s turnaround. This is classic consolidation after a massive trend reversal.