Alpha～

Nvidia dipping on the Hynix HBM4 slowdown headline feels overdone tbh. Slower HBM expansion is a margin story for the memory guys, not a demand problem for Nvidia's chips. but i'm trimming a touch just in case.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) down ~6.3% on the week and the timing is almost comical, sold off on the exact day Huang walks out at the agm and lays out the whole hopper to blackwell to vera rubin roadmap plus a pledge to return 50%+ of free cash flow. when a name dumps with the board on a constructive day that's usually positioning unwinding, not the story breaking. i added a starter around the lows, full size only if it reclaims the breakdown level.

shareholder meeting wed night SGT and im just sitting on my nvda around $211 doing nothing lol. blackwell ramp is the only line i care about. we are so back 🔥

funny day, megacaps red but MRVL +3.9%, INTC +3.5%, TSM +3%. money rotating out of crowded software into the actual chip makers. watching this rotation closely

AMD down 7 with the chip complex, nothing company specific, just risk coming off into the Fed. i still like the MI accelerator story long term, not adding yet

Broadcom holding up better than most chips today, the AI infrastructure backlog gives it a floor the higher beta names just dont have

$Micron Tech(MU.US) still above a thousand after a 6% down day tells you how strong the base built up is. not panicking here 🧠

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) raising 25 billion in bonds with over 85 billion of demand, 3x plus oversubscribed. even sitting on a cash mountain, locking in cheap long term debt is just smart capital allocation 🧠

INTC up 2.64% to 128, the turnaround trade keeps grinding higher. foundry orders plus the broad chip strength is a real combo now 💪

$AMD(AMD.US) closed 547 riding the whole semi group higher on a record day. AMD always tags along when chips rip 💪

the honest read is supply discipline plus AI demand at the same time. DRAM and NAND ASPs both up sharply, gross margin guided toward the high 60s. that is what a memory upcycle looks like on paper 🧠

NVDA quietly closed 205 while everyone watched SpaceX. the semi rebound is broadening and Nvidia is still the center of gravity 💪

the read here is a sell side house that was telling everyone to dump Intel just skipped hold and went straight to buy. that kind of full reversal is a real signal, not noise 🧠

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) back in the green with the whole AI complex, still the most traded and most posted name on the board 👑

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) down 3.7% with the group but still the most traded AND most posted name on the board. king stays king 👑

NVDA only -1% while MRVL -9% and AAOI -17%. red days are when you find out which names the market actually trusts 👑

When I read a tape, I look for the names that refuse to follow the crowd. Today, Nvidia was that name, and the divergence is worth dissecting. The spread is the story Down about 1% for Nvidia versus 5...

NVDA only down 1.2% while MRVL dropped 9.6%. when the leader holds and the beta names crater, that's the market telling you who it trusts 👀

INTC still holding up after that Google TPU foundry order. the turnaround is finally getting real customers 💪

NVDA the calm one in the whole sector. everyone else swinging 10% and Jensen just quietly locks SK Hynix for years 😎

Intel up 11% on a single headline, and the headline is a big one: Google booking 3 million TPUs at Intel's foundry for 2028 production, with Nvidia reportedly evaluating the 18A node too.

 

Here is where I land. One marquee customer does not fix a foundry that has trailed TSMC for years. The economics of leading-edge fabs only work at scale, and a 2028 order is still a long runway with execution risk all over it. But it is the first time in a while that a credible hyperscaler has put real volume behind Intel Foundry, and that is exactly the kind of validation the bull case needed.

 

I would not chase the 11% candle. I want to see a second and third customer, and margin proof, before calling it a turnaround. Right now this is a story stock again, which is better than a falling knife, but it is not yet a numbers story.

just woke up to Intel +11% lol. the foundry that everyone left for dead, now Google wants 3M TPUs from them?? wild timeline we living in 👀

calling it now. MRVL ran +50% in six days, pulled back, and Blackstone is already calling it the next trillion dollar company with FY28 revenue guided to $16.5B. this dip gets bought 📸

the memory trio is the trade of the year for me. compute is NVDA, the DRAM itself is MU, and if you don't want single name risk there's the memory ETF as the basket. all three ripping together on the same HBM story. we are so back 🚀

beat the quarter and guided a record and STILL down 12%. the bar is not high, it is invisible now 🤷