Alpha~

Alpha~

Last time AMD had a big data-centre share-gain quarter was Q3 2024. Stock ripped 18% in a week. Doesn't mean it happens again, but the setup rhymes. Stay nimble.

Last time AMD had a big data-centre share-gain quarter was Q3 2024. Stock ripped 18% in a week. Doesn't mean it happens again, but the setup rhymes. Stay nimble.

Intel reports Q1 Wednesday. The one line I'm watching: foundry external revenue. Everything else is noise until Lip-Bu Tan shows a real third-party customer win. Will it show up?

I've been watching AMD for a while, and today it finally hit what I think is a real inflection point.

All-time high at $279.34, up 7.8%, and now 12 straight days of gains. That's not a fluke — that's a thesis playing out.

The data center segment is becoming a true compounding machine. 41% server value share in Q4 2025. Revenue growing 34% year-over-year.

Earnings are May 5. I'm holding and paying close attention. In my opinion, the long-term story here is just getting started.

Intel's Google partnership validates their foundry strategy. But margins still under pressure — execution is key

Intel's Google partnership validates their foundry strategy. But margins still under pressure — execution is key

INTC just went nuts this week 🚀

Joined Musk's Terafab thing with Tesla/xAI — stock shot up like 15%, hit almost $59. Some call it hype, some call it a turnaround 🤷‍♂️

18A foundry finally got a real customer. Also bought back full control of Fab 34 from Apollo for $14B. Advanced packaging deals with Google/Amazon rumored.

But uh… foundry still lost $2.5B last quarter. Yields apparently only ~60% and needs 80%+ for Tesla orders. Earnings on Apr 23 expected to be negative.

Analysts can't decide: KeyBanc says $70, HSBC says Sell. Classic.

Musk narrative doing all the heavy lifting right now. Anyone actually buying this or just watching the show?🤔

Arm entering chipmaking is huge. Securing Meta & OpenAI orders validates the move. Direct Nvidia competitor emerging

Arm entering chipmaking is huge. Securing Meta & OpenAI orders validates the move. Direct Nvidia competitor emerging

Micron's earnings were explosive—everyone can see the details, so I won't go over them. Instead, I'll share what I've picked up on, which is also what many are wondering: why did such a strong earnings report cause Micron's stock to tumble? Is Micron done?

1. Overcrowded Longs: As mentioned yesterday, in the three days leading up to the earnings report, it was obvious to everyone. Options activity was overwhelmingly skewed towards calls. This led many short-term traders to take profits and flee the moment the report dropped.

2. External Factors: A combination of external factors made both institutions and retail investors more cautious. Last night, we had the Federal Reserve meeting and renewed concerns over the Iran-Israel situation. Logically speaking, this month was supposed to be the timeline for Kevin Warsh to secure his nomination. But with Trump deeply entangled in war efforts, he hasn't had time to deal with Fed matters. Following this timeline, there could be changes to Warsh's nomination in April, sparking market concerns.

3. Great Report, But No New Catalyst: The financials were solid, with healthy revenue. However, there was no new incremental growth story—it's still all about memory and storage, nothing else. Simply put, there were no unexpected surprises.

4. The Strangest and Most Crucial Point: The company indicated that capital expenditures will increase in both 2026 and 2027. This exceeded the expectations of big institutional investors. Their thinking then becomes: if you're aggressively expanding capacity, does that mean pricing power and high premiums won't last? Translated, they're asking: Is this the peak for memory pricing? Increased supply implies future price declines.

5. Options Massacre: It's very likely these two days are just about an options massacre. Markets can swing either way to wipe out option holders. We'll see how it plays out tonight. I won't speculate on specific price targets here to avoid misleading anyone.

What's the outlook from here?

I'm definitely still bullish. The fundamentals are this strong. Following the original thesis, there shouldn't be any major issues at least until the end of the year. Over the next few days, we just need to wait for major investment banks to re-price Micron. As long as the core HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) story remains intact, the fundamental logic hasn't changed. The main headwind is still external factors that might drag on the stock price in the short term.

For short-term traders, I believe the market tonight should offer a decent exit opportunity.

This is just my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice, please discuss rationally.

Micron's HBM4 win with Nvidia is the real story. Memory cycle now driven by AI, not consumer — multiples can expand

Micron's HBM4 win with Nvidia is the real story. Memory cycle now driven by AI, not consumer — multiples can expand

Watching Jensen Huang‘s speech

Why so focused on GTC

Because it supports the AI narrative

Looking at the overall stock prices, AI stocks are relatively resilient

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) has basically established cooperation with all the cloud $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) and others!

Micron earnings Thursday. Memory stocks been on fire. Please keep running 🔥

Micron earnings Thursday. Memory stocks been on fire. Please keep running 🔥

Nvidia's $26B pivot to open-source models is genius — lock in hardware dominance through software ecosystem

Nvidia's $26B pivot to open-source models is genius — lock in hardware dominance through software ecosystem

US expanding chip controls globally? NVDA to the moon!!!!

US expanding chip controls globally? NVDA to the moon!!!!

AMD up 6% again. This chip rally is unstoppable. FOMO is real.

AMD up 6% again. This chip rally is unstoppable. FOMO is real.

Looking at $Pro Ultr Silver(AGQ.US) price action post-crash and trying to make sense of it. Feb 5 hit $114.55 low, then ripped to $137 next day.

30% drop then 20% gain in 48 hours. This is not investing, this is survival training. The 52-week range is literally $31 to $431.

Where else can you get that kind of action? My heart can't take much more of this but my FOMO says buy the dip. Someone talk me off the ledge. 📉

Mixed signals on $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) . Daily ETF flows show QQQ taking #1 spot for inflows - $411B AUM now . But Stocktwits sentiment turned bearish after NVDA China comments . Meanwhile Rollins Financial trimmed position by 2.1% but still largest holding at 11.6% of portfolio . Who is right?

182 insider sales in past 6 months, 0 buys. Pichai sold 357,500 shares for $98M . Meanwhile Congressman Cleo Fields bought $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) 9 times in last 6 months, up to $795k . Insiders selling, politicians buying. Who knows something? I'm with the guy who has access to non-public briefings. 🏛️