markypots

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xiaomi is doing my head in sia. YU7 is selling like hotcakes and they just announced their biggest ever buyback near 20B HKD, but the EV unit still burned 3.1B RMB last quarter and the stock is down nearly 36% ytd. classic case of one number screaming buy and another screaming wait. holding a small position for now but not adding until the EV losses actually narrow.

held MU through two of these earnings cliffs already. learned my lesson, im not touching the position before wednesday, not adding not trimming, just watching with kopi in hand

the SK Hynix 2x ETF on HK is up huge because Hynix owns 70-80% of HBM and sold out through 2026. memory is the new oil and nobody's pumping fast enough

calling it now, first real earnings print decides if this 2.6 trillion holds or halves. screenshot this 📸

2.5 trillion on day two and an analyst literally says it needs a 50x revenue jump to make sense. amazing company, absurd price. i am out up here 🎪

2.5 trillion on day two and an analyst says it needs a 50x revenue jump to justify it. incredible company, absurd price. happy to wait for the float to widen 🎪

over 2 trillion intraday on a tiny float. amazing company but that price is pricing in Mars already. watching, not chasing 🎪

1.75 trillion with a 4% float on day one is engineered scarcity. I'll watch the fireworks, not buy them 🎪

1.75 trillion with a 4% float is just engineered scarcity. priced for Mars colonies before it earns Mars money. hard pass at the open 🎪

1.8 trillion for a company that's mostly Starlink hopes and Mars promises. I'll watch from the sidelines, this screams sell the listing to me 🎪

held Keppel since the offshore marine days lol. watching it go from oil rigs to AI data centers is wild. this Korea move is exactly the pivot I stayed for

Xiaomi quietly buying back shares into the weakness while everyone panics about the list. someone's not worried 🤔

Xiaomi reports Q1 2026 tonight at 7:30pm Hong Kong time. The stock is down 24% year-to-date. Jefferies cut the price target to HKD 26.98. The setup is clear: expectations are depressed, and a clean be...

Supply chain contacts suggest SU7 Ultra production is ahead of schedule. Xiaomi Q1 revenue beat expected. The gap between Xiaomi and legacy automakers on software iteration speed keeps widening🚗

Xiaomi phones doing great, EV still burning cash. The SU7 better start making money soon or my patience runs out faster than the battery range 😭

1/ Xiaomi Q1 2026 results due tonight, 7:30pm Beijing. Supply chain contacts say SU7 Ultra production is running ahead of schedule. One number I'm watching above everything else: auto gross margin. 🚗

2/ FY2025 EV segment hit RMB 106.1 billion, up 224% YoY. First time Xiaomi auto crossed the RMB 100 billion mark. The Q1 question: did momentum hold, and did gross margin improve from the ~20% level reported at year end?

3/ Also tracking: memory component cost headwind. Xiaomi flagged this earlier in Q1 as a watch item. At their scale, component pricing swings matter for gross margin. Could surprise either way.

4/ One thing I confirmed: tonight's earnings call will include a dedicated Q&A section on the auto segment roadmap. Management is clearly signalling that SU7 volume and margin trajectory is the story. That's new. Listening carefully. 📱

Baidu Q1 actually quite decent leh, AI Cloud +79% and AI biz +49% but share price not really reflecting it yet. Bilibili tonight will be another good gauge of China consumer sentiment.

The most interesting PM observation across the three: how each one is monetising AI. Tencent has gone aggressive on Cloud AI compute pricing (+5% recently). BABA is rolling out HappyHorse commercial in May (its agentic product). JD is using AI primarily in logistics optimization. Three different productisation strategies, three different revenue paths. The earnings calls will be more informative on AI revenue contribution than the headline number. Listen to language carefully

$MEITUAN(03690.HK) Meituan Set to Report Q4 & Full-Year 2025 Earnings — All Eyes on Core Local Commerce Pressure

Revenue Outlook

Q4 revenue is expected at RMB 92.1 billion, up ~5% YoY, with full-year revenue around RMB 380 billion — growth slowing amid fierce competition.

Core food delivery orders are projected to grow 7–10%, while Flash Purchase (instant retail) is expected to deliver over 20% growth, helping offset weakness in the in-store, hotel, and travel segments.

New businesses — including Keeta's overseas expansion and community group buying — are forecast to contribute RMB 25–28 billion, though subsidies continue to weigh on gross margin.

Profit Outlook

A full-year net loss of RMB 23.3–24.3 billion is expected, swinging from profit to loss. The core local commerce segment is estimated to post an operating loss of RMB 6.8–7.0 billion, driven by a sharp rise in ecosystem investments amid intensifying competition.

Adjusted net profit for Q4 is expected to show a loss of RMB 1.0–1.5 billion, following the RMB 16 billion loss recorded in Q3.

If subsidy pressure persists, gross margin could dip below 15%, potentially delaying the profitability recovery timeline.

Core Business Breakdown

Food delivery remains resilient, holding over 60% market share with strong user stickiness — though price competition is squeezing margins to historic lows.

Flash Purchase & on-demand retail are scaling fast, hitting 20 million daily orders and surpassing 500 million transacting users, positioning it as a key growth driver.

New businesses have narrowed losses to under RMB 1 billion. Keeta's overseas expansion and supermarket global expansion show long-term promise, though they remain a near-term drag.

Bull vs. Bear

Bear case: Intense competition (e.g., aggressive subsidies from Douyin) is eroding core profitability — a trend that looks hard to reverse. The stock is already down 22%, wiping out billions in market cap. Caution advised near term.

Bull case: Meituan's moat remains intact — 800 million users, strong logistics network, and algorithm advantage. Flash Purchase penetration plus overseas expansion could unlock long-term value. A re-rating may follow once the competitive landscape stabilizes.

My Play

As a Hong Kong trader, I'm staying neutral for now. I'll look to build long positions in batches after Q4 results confirm a bottom in losses, with a stop at HKD 75.

For those trading options (US/HK listed), selling out-of-the-money puts (strike HKD 70) could be a way to collect premium — targeting 5–8% returns, with position size capped at 10% of the portfolio for risk control.

$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK) Just saw Xiaomi dropped a new AI model (MiMo-V2) last night.

Honestly? Pretty impressive timing right before the SU7 event tonight. It's apparently ranking #2 in China on some leaderboard, and the wild part is—someone anonymously uploaded it to OpenRouter days ago and everyone thought it was DeepSeek's new model😂

What I like: they're pricing it aggressively (cheap tokens), promising to open source it, and it's already integrated into WPS. That's actual distribution, not just tech demos.

Kinda feels like Xiaomi is quietly building real AI capability while everyone's focused on the car hype. Anyone tried it yet?

$Oracle(ORCL.US) technicals: broke above $150 resistance today, now $152.30. 52-week range $118.86-$345.72, currently 56% below highs. RSI recovering from oversold, MACD bullish crossover forming. Oppenheimer upgrade catalyst. $185 PT implies 21% upside. Bottom fishing season? 🎣

$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) 52-week range $481 to $697, currently $681 . Near highs but still below ATH. Question for the group: Trim here and take profits or hold through 2026? FOMC minutes today could decide direction . Mixed signals everywhere.