$Tesla(TSLA.US) has been experiencing significant price fluctuations these days. Let me share my personal views and trading suggestions.
First, about my positions: I closed the 7.17/400calls on Monday during the rebound because the position was too large with further downside risk, and my account had little liquidity, so I took a small profit and closed it. Currently, I only hold the 7.17/450calls and Tesla shares. I reduced the 7.17/450call position on Monday and bought back in over the past two days. Today, I added some more shares at 381.
Let's talk about the logic for adding positions. There's not much to discuss at the macro level recently, as there have been many major news events: the World Cup, the SPX IPO, the Fed's interest rate meeting, etc. We'll just wait for these events to unfold and see the market's reaction before making decisions. Regarding Tesla, the main points are whether SPX will be linked to Tesla, the Roadster launch event and market reaction, news about FSD, the V3 enterprise edition launch and delivery status. These news catalysts are concentrated in the second half of the year, roughly from mid-June to the end of August. This feels very similar to the pattern last year when it surged to 500: first a rally to test the resistance at the previous high of 488, then a drop to the 38Xs, with two instances of finding support and then the price rising in line with news catalysts. You'll notice this time is almost the same: first up to 450 to test resistance (multiple attempts to touch the top), then two sell-offs to around 38X with repeated rallies and sell-offs. Looking at the daily chart might be a bit limited; looking at the weekly chart, you'll see the trend structure is even more similar. So, the key is whether the price can close above the 378-382 range this week. I expect that as long as there are no black swan events at the macro level, the broader market will rebound over the next two days. Also, as mentioned before, there might be a probability of news about SPX-Tesla linkage/business integration around the time of the SPX listing. That's the main focus for next week. Currently, that's probably the news most likely to drive sentiment among external funds. If there's really none, then we'll have to wait for the new car launch event at the end of June. But don't worry too much. As long as there are no major macro issues, for a company like Tesla, after the SPX listing, it probably won't continue to fall sharply, at most it will grind lower in a slow decline, making retail investors uncomfortable, forcing them to give up their chips—at least it won't be like March-April. After all, with so many news catalysts ahead, medium- to long-term funds won't be foolish enough to miss the opportunity.
If it closes below the 378-382 range this week, you need to control your position size, cut some losses first, and wait for 350-365 to add back. Even if you want to speculate based on news catalysts, if there's no movement on the SPX-Tesla linkage news, you'll have to wait until the end of June to see if the new car launch has any 'tech magic'. However, my advice for the shares is still to hold. If it rebounds to 400-410 over the next two days, you can reduce your position or buy puts to hedge. The rest is just waiting for time to verify whether the logic is right or wrong.
The above is for reference only. Please manage your own risk and positions accordingly.
