当美股来敲门

1. Market sentiment rebounds: Tariff negotiation expectations boost risk appetite. The U.S. stock market has shown a significant rebound recently, with $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) and $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) rising consecutively. Market sentiment has shifted from cautious at the beginning of the year to phased optimism. The core logic driving this trend lies in the potential expectation of Sino-U.S. tariff negotiations—as Trump publicly mentioned "possible trade dialogue with China," market hopes for easing trade friction have heated up, and risk asset valuations have entered a recovery window. From a sector performance perspective...

Today's view and strategy: US stocks continued to rise yesterday, achieving three consecutive gains, with the S&P 500 rising 6.33% in 3 days. Currently, the S&P 500 is between the 20-day and 30-day moving averages. The effectiveness of the 20-day line as support has not been tested, but the pressure from the 30-day line is real. In addition, as mentioned before, the high of 5481 on April 9 is still difficult to break through. Before the tariff crisis is actually resolved, US stocks are likely to fluctuate between 5000-5500, currently facing dual pressure from the 30-day line and the resistance line...

Today's views and strategies on gold: I've been reminding everyone since April 16th that the recent deviation in gold prices is too high, advising caution in adding positions, and have posted two or three articles consecutively. Yesterday, gold prices corrected by 1.23%, continuing to drop after hours, and are down 2.28% at the time of writing. Multiple factors are at play: first, Trump hinted at reducing tariffs on China; second, gold has risen too much recently, and any selling pressure triggers profit-taking. In my view, gold still holds investment value—regardless of Trump's unpredictable policies, we just need to know that the U.S.'s ultimate goal is debt reduction, and with fewer U.S. bonds...

1. Delivery and Production Capacity Dilemma: Weak Demand and Structural Contradictions Highlighted$Tesla(TSLA.US)  Q1 2025 deliveries fell 13% year-on-year to 336,700 units, the lowest level in three years, significantly below the market expectation lower limit of 377,000 units. This decline was mainly due to production line shutdowns caused by the Model Y facelift and the risk of product matrix simplification (Model 3/Y accounted for more than 95%). Notably, the decline in capacity utilization led to an inventory backlog of 26,000 units...

On April 17, at the invitation of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) CEO Jensen Huang arrived in Beijing for a visit. Beyond the glamorous facade of a tech giant visiting China, this trans-Pacific trip is essentially a survival strategy demonstration by a commercial company caught in the cracks of great power rivalry — after all, even with a 90% share of the global high-end GPU market, Nvidia remains just a commercial pawn tied to the chariot of geopolitics. I. Survival Rules Under Commercial Rationality: When a Chip Giant Meets the Iron Curtain of Export Controls In the web of technological blockade woven by Washington...

From a technical perspective of the S&P 500, yesterday's trading volume slightly increased, and the decline was significantly larger than the previous two days. The moving averages are in a bearish alignment, and a downtrend has basically formed. As for gold, there was a pullback yesterday, but the magnitude was not significant. The KDJ is overbought, and the bias rate remains high. There may still be some degree of pullback in the near future. Based on the current trend of the gold market, you can wait for the price to retest the 5-day moving average or for the 20-day moving average bias rate to fall below 5 before adding positions opportunistically. The VIX trend has diverged from the broader market. Under the general decline of the broader market...

In the previously published article "They laugh at me for being crazy, I laugh at them for not seeing through! On Trump.", it was written that Trump likely adopted the strategy of befriending the distant while attacking the nearby. This perspective isn't entirely wrong, but there's one issue: he didn't "befriend" the EU, Japan, South Korea, etc. Instead, he treated them as equal founding members, though some were just given a band-aid and a pat on the shoulder after the founding. Therefore, perhaps the Prisoners’ Dilemma is a more appropriate model to explain the current situation. 1. What is the Prisoners’ Dilemma? The Prisoners’ Dilemma is a classic non-zero-sum game model in game theory...

Today's view and strategy: From a technical perspective of the S&P 500, yesterday's trading volume increased slightly, and the decline was significantly larger than the previous two days. The moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, and technically speaking, a downtrend has basically formed. However, the S&P 500 has pulled out three consecutive negative lines, and there was a rally at the end of yesterday's session. SPY rose 0.9% in after-hours trading, so short sellers need to control their positions and be cautious of an oversold rebound. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) had already bottomed out in pre-market trading yesterday, with strong support at 105, and the intraday fluctuations were minimal. If the broader market shows signs of recovery tonight...

Today's View and Strategy: Yesterday, the three major U.S. stock indices were under dual pressure from moving averages and resistance levels, opening higher but closing lower again during the session, indicating weak bullish momentum. Additionally, after-hours and overnight, the U.S. government first announced export restrictions on NVIDIA's H20 chips, followed by a statement imposing 245% tariffs on China, triggering another market decline. The volatility index futures surged 7.25% overnight. As for gold, multiple brokerages have once again raised their target prices for gold, pushing prices to new highs. Caution is advised when adding positions—the gold thesis remains intact, but recent gains seem slightly excessive due to sentiment-driven factors...

Market: Rally followed by pullback, panic sentiment eased S&P 500: closed up 0.79%$NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) : closed up 0.64%$iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX.US) : closed up 0.31%$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US) : closed up 0.78% Volatility Index: closed down 17.76% The US government announced a "temporary exemption" on import tariffs for consumer electronics such as smartphones, computers, and chips, easing cost pressures on tech companies...

Shorting U.S. stocks, fluctuating tariffs, insider trading—U.S. inflation is already on the rise, and even our Mexican amigos have started selling eggs. As a businessman and politician who was elected U.S. president twice and made six comebacks, why would Trump short his own country? Is he really an idiot? As the saying goes, despise the enemy strategically but take them seriously tactically. Let’s first assume he’s human and analyze the logic behind his actions. 1. What is dollar hegemony? First, we need to understand why the U.S. maintains dollar hegemony—it’s not about pride but practical interests...

1. Review of yesterday's operations Yesterday's post strongly bearish on US stocks, only traded one stock $2x Long VIX Futures ETF(UVIX.US), made 12 points profit. Although didn't capture the full move, still quite satisfied. As for the bearish logic, mainly three points: 1. As described in yesterday's post, Trump's tweet about delaying tariffs likely involved insider trading, which undermines the logic behind the previous day's stock surge. 2. The previous day's US stock rally...

First of all, I declare that I do not hold any short positions. I even made some profit from gold yesterday, so I'm not venting frustration due to losses—I'm just expressing my views objectively. I believe everyone is already well aware of what happened last night. At 9:37 PM Beijing time, Trump posted a tweet on his Truth Social account: "Now is a great time to buy!" followed by the stock code of Trump Media Group, DJT. About four hours later, Trump announced a suspension of additional tariffs on 75 countries, causing U.S. stocks to instantly explode...

Part I: Recent Trading Review The US stock market made a carp leaping out of water move the day before yesterday, staging a beautiful comeback with an oversold rebound, but then faltered again yesterday, opening high and closing low. $S&P 500(.SPX.US) fell 1.57%, $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) fell 2.15%, $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US) fell 0.84%. The above only accounts for intraday declines, with continued drops in after-hours and night trading. And don’t forget, the Nasdaq opened high and closed low—taking the Nasdaq as an example, it opened at 16,181 and closed at 15,603, appearing to drop 2.15%...

Rumormonger Reuters previously falsely reported Intel's acquisition, and last night claimed a 90-day tariff delay, only to retract it 7 minutes later, causing a $2.5 trillion fluctuation in the U.S. stock market. Investors trapped at the peak have already filed police reports, suggesting the SEC investigate Reuters for obvious market manipulation. After a roller-coaster ride, $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US)  closed up 0.1%, $S&P 500(.SPX.US)  closed down 0.23%, and $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US)  closed down 0.91%. Taking Nasdaq as an example...

The Trump tariffs continue to ferment, and tonight the $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) fell by 5%, with a slight rebound in pre-market trading, down 4% from the previous closing price. Since March 26, the Nasdaq has fallen nearly 20%, signaling a stock market crash. Now, the most pressing question on everyone's mind is likely just one: buy the dip or cut losses? We hope this article provides some insights. As previously mentioned, the Trump tariffs are merely a trigger—the underlying issue is the valuation regression of U.S. stocks due to overvaluation. Everyone understands the theory; the key is whether the regression has reached its limit. 1. Valuation Position First, let's look at the absolute position from the Nasdaq's standpoint...

Last night it kept rising during the session, $Robinhood(HOOD.US) fell 4% in pre-market but recovered within 5 minutes after opening. I never intended to bet on tariffs anyway, so I set a sell order at 44 (slightly above my cost basis) for half of my position, then used 10% of the cash from selling FBL to buy some $2x Long VIX Futures ETF(UVIX.US). Trump's move was indeed unexpected - in the end the gains from UVIX offset the losses from HOOD...

CoreWeave (CRWV): A sudden surge two days after breaking issue price As one of the most anticipated $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) spin-off stocks in the 2025 U.S. market, $Coreweave(CRWV.US) listed on Nasdaq last Friday at an issue price of $40. Despite pricing below the original $47-55 range and reducing the offering size, it still couldn't avoid breaking issue price on its debut, with intraday losses exceeding 6%. However, the stock staged a reversal on Tuesday, closing up 42% at $52.57, pushing its market cap above $24.3 billion...

US stocks rebounded yesterday, and many friends in the circle are bullish tonight, but I personally have reservations. Trump's tariffs have a significant impact in the short to medium term, but in the long run, they are just a trigger. It leads to the valuation regression after the US stock bubble bursts. As of January 2025, Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves have surged to $325 billion, exceeding the combined cash holdings of the five largest tech giants, including Apple and Microsoft. This unusual move strongly resonates with the 'red alert' signaled by the Buffett Indicator: the ratio of the total US stock market capitalization to GDP (Buffett Indicator) has reached 211%...

On Friday, US stocks fell again. Since last Wednesday, the $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) has experienced three consecutive declines, dropping over 4%. I sensed the trend was off last Friday at the open and sold about one-third of my stock positions, increasing my gold holdings to 50%. But clearly, I didn’t sell enough stocks or buy enough gold—even the 2x leveraged $Pro Ultr GLD(UGL.US) couldn’t offset this kind of drop. Have US stocks bottomed out? The key is tonight’s session. Based on pre-market activity, the Nasdaq has already broken through short-term strong support...

$Robinhood(HOOD.US) previously reduced half of the position, bought back at 43.5 yesterday, and now it's my top holding again. Let me briefly talk about why I'm bullish on this stock and its investment logic. 1. Unique and solid business model Founded in 2013, Robinhood broke the profit model of traditional brokers with "zero-commission trading". Its founders, with strong technical backgrounds, built a low-threshold, high-efficiency investment platform that successfully attracted a large number of young investors. As of 2025...

On March 26, 2025, the $NASDAQ Composite Index.US fell 2.04% in a single day, while $NVIDIA.US's stock price plummeted 5.74%, with its market value evaporating by 1.2 trillion yuan in one day. After-hours and night trading continued to decline, and as of the time of writing, it was down 1.5% from yesterday's closing price. This sudden shock is not an isolated incident but the result of a triple whammy of tariff policies, technical compliance issues, and industry supply-demand imbalances...