长桥富家

skill 工作流逻辑：chrome mcp 下载直播视频- 转成音频- 转成文字- prompt 约束下梳理总结。一、京城 Z 先生画像投资风格特征维度特点核心理念价值投资 = 基于价值低买高卖，"长期"是结果而非目的选股逻辑景气周期 + 估值合理 + 自己能懂偏好标的动量强的中小盘（确定行业向好时）> 行业龙头风险态度不做空、不追高、不碰不懂的领域持仓风格集中持有看好板块...

Don't rush to guess the ups and downs, first learn to 'filter out the noise'. Over the years in the stock market, I've seen too many newcomers who immediately want to 'predict the ups and downs,' always thinking about which day it will rise or fall, as if guessing right once will make them rich. But to be honest—the market isn't about guessing. If you rely on guessing, sooner or later, the market will teach you a lesson. Look at the recent CRCL$Circle(CRCL.US) trend—how many people chased highs and sold lows, going in and out, only to get repeatedly harvested? When buying, they were full of confidence; when it fell, they panicked; after selling, it rose again, leaving them full of regret... It's like riding a roller coaster...

不要相信爱情，要相信人格，因为当爱情消失的时候，如果对方是个好人，至少你就不至于遍体鳞伤。硅谷著名的投资人纳瓦尔先生，他曾经说过一句话，他说选择伴侣是你这一生最重要的决定，甚至比你做什么工作，赚多少钱都重要，因为当工作没了就可以再找，钱赔了你可以再赚，但是如果选错了伴侣，代价就是你后半生的安宁。我前段时间刷到一篇文章，就大概意思是就是刚好结合了纳瓦尔先生的这个观点和现实生活...

AI Industry Map

I promised to write an article on position management earlier, but I haven't had time until now to make up for it. After trading U.S. stocks for a while, you'll realize a harsh truth: what often ruins an account isn't stock-picking ability but position management skills. I'm sure you've heard this line many times: 'Can I still chase this one? Should I average down on that one?' But the real question should be: At this price, how much are you willing to risk to test the waters? If you're wrong, how much can you stomach losing? 1. The underlying logic of position management Going all-in is thrilling, but it essentially bets years of future opportunities on the fantasy that this one trade must be right...

Under the AI megatrend, the most scarce resource is electricity. I've sorted out the stocks related to the electricity value chain...

Talk about IV value, the underlying stock rises but the option doesn't rise and instead falls—20251021

Why was there almost a floating loss when I checked the account this morning? The market was so good last night, but the options didn't follow the rise of the underlying stock? Suddenly interested, I flipped through books, checked materials, and even used DeepSeek and Gemini. For now, I attribute the main reason to the fluctuation of IV value and made a record.

1. The impact of IV value during earnings season fluctuates greatly (the peak occurs within 3 days before the earnings report). The 260618 call has multiple earnings seasons, relatively mild, while the 260116 call is only relevant for this earnings report. It's crucial to sell during the earnings season peak if you want to capitalize on it. Those who remain bullish post-earnings can ignore this.

2. Posted a few positions. Subjectively, the underlying stock rose, but the options didn't rise or didn't rise according to the previous volatility (compared to the close on 10.17). For example: Meta underlying +$15, option +1 / Google underlying +$3, option +0.6 (the underlying hit a new high, but the option was far behind). Like brk.b, the underlying rose, but the option was still at a position corresponding to a $2-3 drop.

3. Here’s a simple summary of the reasons for IV value fluctuations in options: sudden uncertainty in events (e.g., earnings reports, major information disclosures) / supply-demand imbalance (reduced trading) / volatility smile skew (fear of a drop during earnings season outweighing the rise).

4. The reasonable range for IV value varies. For example, brk.b:

· IV range: Usually 14% - 20%

· IV peak range (around earnings release): 1-2 days before earnings, IV climbs to a peak, usually between 22% - 30%. Compared to normal times, IV rises by about 50% on average before earnings (if you remain bullish or there are multiple earnings seasons, it’s much smoother).

Last night was a pitiful lower bound of 15.5%, quite a floating loss 😂

5. The relationship between time decay and IV value: They jointly affect option value, but for long calls, time decay is steady, while IV value fluctuates greatly. This is why, at the same underlying stock price, options a week apart can differ by nearly 10%. Therefore, the best time to sell options successfully is finding the optimal balance between high IV (Vega) and time decay (Theta)—usually before major events (unless you’re long-term bullish).

6. Next, observing other targets (apple/avgo/nvda/orcl/mstr/bmnr, etc.), it’s the same, especially mstr, which crashed.

Finally, I hope everyone finds value and rides the wave of success!

🚨Morgan Stanley has just released a list of 39 "national security" stocks—this is essentially the secret to America's industrial dominance in the next decade.

This is not a typical watchlist—it's a list of companies the U.S. needs to maintain leadership in energy, defense, and AI supply chains.

Let’s break it down👇

⚛️Nuclear and Uranium:

The U.S. wants energy independence—that means uranium.

Companies like $Energy Fuels(UUUU.US), $Centrus Energy(LEU.US), $Cameco(CCJ.US), and $Nexgen Energy(NXE.US) are riding the wave of a nuclear revival. As the U.S. rebuilds its nuclear backbone, even microreactor firms like $Oklo(OKLO.US) are making waves.

🔋Batteries and Energy Storage:

$Tesla(TSLA.US) is still here, but the real edge may come from lesser-known $Amprius Tech(AMPX.US) (next-gen lithium-ion) and $Microvast(MVST.US) (solid-state tech).

These are the quiet enablers of the EV and grid storage boom—every megawatt stored now ties into national security.

🪨Rare Earths and Strategic Metals:

China controls 70%+ of this market—and the U.S. wants out.

Morgan Stanley highlights $MP Materials(MP.US), $Critical Metals(CRML.US), $IVN, and $Wheaton Precious(WPM.US) as key players securing rare earth supply chains for chips, missiles, and EVs.

⚡Lithium:

No lithium, no clean energy transition.

Watch $Albemarle(ALB.US), $Lithium Americas(LAC.US), $Sigma Lithium(SGML.US), and $Standard Lithium(SLI.US)—these are the lifelines of the world’s next-gen battery superpowers.

💡Bottom line:

This "National Security Index" isn’t just about defense—it’s about controlling the raw power of the future: energy, data, and materials.

The companies on this list aren’t just suppliers—in a world of rising geopolitical tensions, they’re gatekeepers of U.S. sovereignty.

If you’re tracking where government money flows next…this could be your roadmap.

HPC / AI infrastructure$Nebius(NBIS.US)  – AI cloud / GPU hosting leader$IREN(IREN.US)  – Bitcoin + AI computing backbone$Cipher Digital(CIFR.US)  – Data center + AI infrastructure builder robots / automation / drones$UiPath(PATH.US)   – Process automation platform$Richtech Robotics - B(RR.US)  – Industrial and...

Stocks worth watching in the energy and power sector: Power and Utilities $Vistra(VST.US) — Leader in the power sector (strong momentum, trend continues) $Constellation Energy(CEG.US) — With nuclear energy concept and growth (uptrend continues) $Brenmiller Energy(BNRG.US) — Cash flow giant (solid structure...

2025 Core Robotics, AI, Biotech, Nuclear Power, and Aircraft Concept Overview🎯 Small Robotics Sector: SERV / RR (ARBE)$Serve Robotics(SERV.US)$Richtech Robotics - B(RR.US)Small robots are gradually penetrating logistics, healthcare, and even household life, with SERV and RR (ARBE) emerging as leaders in this field due to their unique technological advantages. ARBE specializes in high-resolution 4D imaging radar technology...