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"Predictions on the Iran War"

When Iran initially blocked the Strait, its real intention was to use military pressure to force negotiations. The blockade was meant to make the US uncomfortable, gain better negotiation terms, draw international attention, and win sympathy in public opinion. It was certain that Iran was determined to retaliate, but at that time, its missile silos, air force, and navy were basically wiped out, leaving it with no combat capability. Otherwise, it would have directly attacked Israel at the highest level, and missiles hitting the US would have been the end. Precisely because it lacked the capability to fight, it could only resort to blocking the Strait, along with drone and small missile attacks on energy facilities in Middle Eastern countries. The clear-headed people within their ranks definitely knew that winning was impossible; they could only strive for good ceasefire terms through talks. There will always be people inside who prioritize interests and won't blindly treat fighting Israel and the US to the end as a matter of faith. So, if things had continued along the previous plotline where only Khamenei died, I think the war would have ended in 1 to 2 months. If Iran was unwilling to open the Strait, it would be bombed until it couldn't bear it and was forced to open it. Once the Strait is open, the war is effectively over for the US, and the US would withdraw. After that, Israel and Iran might be left in a protracted war, similar to Russia and Ukraine.

But now Larijani is also dead. He was the one actually in power in Iran. The officially appointed son of Khamenei is reportedly disfigured from a bombing and is now receiving treatment in Russia, or may already be dead. So now, Iran has no capable political representative to come out and negotiate, leaving only some military personnel prepared to fight to the death. But do they really have the strength? I think now that the entire top leadership has been taken out, it has actually become a disadvantageous factor for the US and Israel.

Now, to break the deadlock in the war, the US and Israel must make a major move within a week. It can be said that they must deploy ground troops with the aim of forcing Iran to open the Strait, either voluntarily or under coercion. Let's hold our positions and wait and see.

$Tesla(TSLA.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $United States Oil Fund LP(USO.US)

Well, the profits have withdrawn a lot in the past week, but I made a lot of 'happy beans'

At this year's CIIE, $Tesla(TSLA.US)'s booth was the smallest compared to BBA, but had the longest queue

Reviewing the stock price of $Tesla(TSLA.US) around the shareholder meeting, it reached a peak of 474 this Monday, with daily fluctuations of 3~5 points, indicating significant volatility. Those who went all-in, leveraged heavily, or made short-term calls betting on the meeting results and subsequent price surge must have endured intense emotional stress. Heavy positions and high leverage can easily lead to psychological imbalance, resulting in stop-loss or substantial losses. That's why many seasoned investors never gamble on earnings reports. Everyone knew the compensation package approval was highly likely. Norway's sovereign wealth fund, Tesla's sixth-largest shareholder, holds only 1.2%. Including other public oppositions like CalPERS and the New York pension fund, the total opposition stake is about 1.62%—a small fraction. However, short-sellers are eager to amplify such voices, and retail investors are swayed easily. For us retail investors, the best strategy is to hold onto our shares, avoid chasing highs, and only add positions or long calls during dips caused by sentiment shifts—not fundamental deterioration. Let Elon Musk lead us to prosperity.

Many people always look for reasons for the decline, trying to avoid it next time. For example, this time, risks like the US government's long-term shutdown, no rate cut in December, and big short sellers starting to short $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US). Little do they know, sometimes the decline is simply because the market has risen too much. Several giants have seen significant gains before or after the impressive earnings reports at the end of October, and the market sentiment has been a bit overheated recently. There will always be profit-taking and money worried about an AI bubble to cool the market. Personally, I believe AI is already genuinely boosting productivity, and it's not yet a bubble—just overheated. Don't touch the underlying stocks; buy the dips if you haven't accumulated enough. For $Tesla(TSLA.US), the cooling-off just ahead of the shareholder meeting is timely, and a new high is highly likely after the meeting. If you're thinking of buying calls on the cheap to gamble recently, estimate the corresponding option stop-loss price based on delta and set your stop-loss properly.

Holding your stocks is crucial. Fully understand the main themes of this era—AI, autonomous driving, humanoid robots—to build conviction.

Building conviction serves two purposes:

1. In irrational downturns where fundamentals remain intact, dare to hold and even add positions—buy more when prices drop sharply.

2. During continuous rallies or significant gains, stay invested because this is the outcome you anticipated when you made your decision. Don’t leave just as the flowers start to bloom.

Only consider reducing positions for intraday trading (T) under the following circumstances:

1. When prices show obvious bubbles.

2. When retail sentiment is overly euphoric (e.g., after Musk helps Trump win the election, despite no change in fundamentals).

3. When expecting monetary tightening cycles.

$Tesla(TSLA.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

If you've invested in the US stock $Alibaba(BABA.US), then there's no reason not to invest in $Amazon(AMZN.US). Both started as e-commerce companies and grew into the largest cloud computing and infrastructure service providers in China and the US due to their e-commerce needs. Now, both are full-stack AI players. Alibaba has an advantage in large language models and open-source ecosystems, while Amazon's AWS dominates globally. Amazon has higher certainty, while Alibaba is constrained by China's overall economic and political environment. Amazon can be said to have the least star power among US tech giants because its founder is relatively low-key. Some people (like Peter Lynch) prefer such non-trendy companies because they can be bought at cheap valuations. Today's market opening is the moment for short-term gains.

Top 3%, thanks to AI and these great companies, this great era has just begun, of course, the premise is that AI will not take over humans $Tesla(TSLA.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)

$POP MART(09992.HK) Technology retreated amid uncertainty, while consumption showed signs of picking up. It feels like a good time to invest in Pop Mart, and Pop Mart has almost completed its previous adjustment. The fact that both Pop Mart and Mixue rose yesterday also indicates that consumption is relatively resilient.

$Tesla(TSLA.US) If you really think Tesla's stock price can reach $2000~$3000 in 10 years, then buying at $400 or $300 now doesn't make much difference. The negative news and policy impacts have mostly been priced in over the past few months. The minor risks I can think of, like Musk's compensation plan being rejected, are outweighed by the potential positive developments in FSD and Optimus. So any short-term pullbacks are buying opportunities, with current support at $400-$420.

$Tesla(TSLA.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Should I go to Macau to play the big-small game? 😄

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Reviewing NVIDIA's performance around the earnings report, the market generally believed the results would exceed expectations, so the stock started rising a few days in advance and continued until before last night's opening. Although exceeding expectations was indeed highly probable, over 90%, as the saying goes, 'unanimous expectations must reverse,' it's not that easy to make money. As a result, the stock opened lower, with a relatively small intraday decline. After the earnings report was released, it seemed only the data center revenue slightly missed expectations, while total revenue still exceeded expectations. However, the stock dropped by more than 5% after hours, clearly oversold, and almost all the losses were recovered by today's opening. For options, this is what you often call 'killing both bulls and bears.' So, going all-in before the earnings report—how could it be that easy?