海梦

Dear friends, I'd like to put the conclusion first: I believe the current trend is more likely a correction within a bull market rather than the end of the rally. Many people have been panicking after seeing the recent volatility and pullback, but if you lay out the logic, the answer is actually very clear. 1. With risk-free rates this low, there's no reason for equity assets not to rise The current risk-free rate is at half the level in 2021. What does this mean? It means stocks are more valuable and more worth investing in now than they were then. Look at the equity-bond yield spread: it was only at the 12th percentile in 2021, now it's around the 50th percentile. In other words...

Dear friends, last Friday the Fear & Greed Index directly dropped to 6.76, which is already a standard "extreme fear" state. When was the last time the Fear & Greed Index dropped to single digits? It was on April 9 this year—during the global tariff war and "global crash." And the result? The single-digit temperature only lasted for three days, and then the market turned around and went all the way up. This once again verifies the rule we have repeatedly highlighted: a rise is the reason for a rise, and a fall is the reason for a fall. The power of trends is always the core driving force behind short-term market movements. We are in a "critical turning interval" now...

Dear friends, as the year-end approaches, the market has indeed been a bit sluggish recently, and the overall sentiment is relatively poor. But I want to say a hard truth: short-term sentiment decline does not mean a change in the medium- to long-term trend. The data we see, the views of global investment banks, and the actual behavior of capital all indicate that the future direction is still upward. 1. UBS: China's stock market will usher in another "bumper year" next year. UBS made it very clear in its latest report: continuous development in innovation, multiple favorable drivers still ongoing, and strong medium- to long-term support for the A-share and H-share markets. Their judgment is straightforward: China's stock market will usher in another "bumper year" next year...

Friends, today a friend said: "Why does it feel like the global market is falling?" I told him—this is not a "feeling", this is a fact. To be honest, this kind of scene where global stock markets and commodity markets are all in the red is really something I haven't seen in a long time. But it's not without reason; there are two main reasons behind it: the Federal Reserve and the Japanese government. 1. Federal Reserve: From "definitely cutting rates" to "uncertain" The most significant change in the market these past two days is the sudden collapse of rate-cut expectations. Previously, the probability of a 25bp rate cut by the Fed in December was as high as 94%...

Dear friends, recently the voices about the "AI bubble" have started to spread everywhere again. Last week, the prototype of the big short just shorted NVIDIA, and this week it came out again to accuse US tech giants of extending depreciation periods and inflating profits; then SoftBank liquidated its NVIDIA holdings, although SoftBank itself said it wanted to use the money to invest in OpenAI, but does the market care if you have an explanation? Emotions were instantly ignited, with doubts, panic, and skepticism all coming at once, causing the AI sector to fluctuate wildly. But we must tell the truth: from a valuation perspective, AI is indeed not cheap. But from a historical perspective—every truly world-changing technological revolution...

Dear all, today I want to talk about what's on everyone's mind—is the market currently "expensive"? To be honest, most people entering the market aren't really concerned about "whether valuations are reasonable" but rather—can they still make a bit more profit? But once you truly understand the market, you'll realize that market trends are never a math problem driven by valuation levels but rather a game of emotions and strategy. "Expensive or not" is never the core issue; belief is. Many people like to say—this stock is too expensive. But the question is, so what if it's expensive? In the market, what truly drives prices isn't rationality but human sentiment...

Dear friends, recently, the tech sectors such as computing power and AI in the U.S. stock market have become a "disaster zone." The decline has left many questioning their life choices. The reason is actually quite simple—AI is being bottlenecked by electricity. You heard that right—it's not an algorithm issue, nor a capital withdrawal, but a fundamental problem with energy supply. The U.S. power infrastructure is too outdated, and the pace of construction and upgrades simply can't keep up with the development of AI. OpenAI once ambitiously claimed it would deploy 250GW of computing power centers by 2033, but now it's stuck on the power grid. In short...

Dear friends, the recent market volatility has made many people anxious again. Just a few days ago, two top investment banks, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, almost simultaneously issued warnings—they cautioned that global stock markets could see a 10% to 20% correction in the next 12 to 24 months. Upon hearing this, many people's first reaction might be: Is the bull market ending? Should we exit again? But in reality, whether you carefully read their reports or consider historical trends, their main point isn’t a 'crash' but a 'natural correction.' Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley emphasized...

"Independent thinking is the strongest trump card in investment" Dear friends, the performance of innovative drugs has indeed been a bit weak in the past two months. Many people panic when they see stock prices fall, but this actually highlights one issue—too many people in the market have yet to learn independent thinking. We’ve emphasized countless times: the foremost principle in making investment decisions is independence. You can lack confidence in the market, but this 'lack of confidence' shouldn’t stem solely from a few days of falling stock prices; you can be bearish on a sector, but you shouldn’t let past losses cloud your judgment. Investment is not an emotional game but a contest of cognition and logic. Truly mature investors...

Dear friends, since the wave of decline in early October, I have been firmly bullish. This time is different from the past. When the market fell before, I mostly comforted everyone not to panic. But this time, I truly have confidence in the trend itself. The market logic is very clear: the earlier pullback was more of an emotional release rather than a trend reversal. So back then, I repeatedly emphasized one sentence—"A decline is not a bad thing; it's an opportunity." As it turns out, friends who have been following the review rhythm during this period have now secured decent positions at low levels. For example, the opportunity to add positions in AAC at 38 yesterday was perfectly executed...

Dear friends, is it a good time to invest in Hong Kong stocks' innovative medicine sector? Many people have been asking me this question these past two days. This year, the best-performing sector in A-shares has been technology, such as the STAR Market, which has risen by over 40% this year. As for Hong Kong stocks, the main theme is actually innovative medicine. As of October 31, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's innovative medicine index has risen by 87.8% this year, far outpacing the Hang Seng Index (30.4%) and the Hang Seng Tech Index (32.55%). At first glance, everyone's immediate reaction must be—with such a big rise, is there a bubble? Can we still buy? I want to say very clearly: it's not a bubble...

Dear friends, in this round of market trends, if you take a closer look at the performance of foreign institutions, you'll understand a very important point—they are currently in a rather "high" state. Over the past six months, foreign investors have become increasingly optimistic, not only with capital flowing back but also with noticeably more positive language in research reports. For example, Fu Si, Goldman Sachs' China equity strategist, clearly pointed out: China's stock market is entering a new growth cycle. The three key logics they are bullish on—AI, anti-involution, and going global—are all solid structural drivers. Goldman Sachs even predicts...

Friends, if you've been following the A-share market recently, you must know—the Shanghai Composite Index has once again broken through the 4,000-point mark. Although it only held for a day, the momentum was impressive, with the overall trend continuing to hit new highs. The capital power in this round is indeed strong. On the other hand, the Hong Kong market seems a bit "lagging behind," falling from 27,381 and only briefly rebounding to around 26,600 before dropping again. I won’t repeat the well-known reasons—tight liquidity, ongoing policy adjustments—these are just surface-level. In my view, the most crucial phrase for this phase is: "Secure the home front before venturing abroad..."

Dear friends, in today's review, I want to say four words—endure the solitude. The hardest thing in the market is never analyzing fundamentals or predicting K-lines, but patience. Patience to endure volatility, patience to resist temptation, patience to watch others profit while you don't. Those who can endure will laugh last. First, let's look at the macro picture. Last night, the U.S. released September CPI data—3% year-on-year, core CPI also 3% year-on-year, both below the market's expectation of 3.1%. What does this mean?—It means inflation is cooling, and the market instantly switched to 'easing mode.' The result: all three major U.S. stock indices hit record highs...

Dear all, the recent performance of Hong Kong stocks has indeed been quite "grinding." After rebounding for two days, it started to fall again, with the Hang Seng Index retreating nearly 13% from its previous high. Many people panic when they see this kind of trend, thinking the bull market might be over again. In fact, this kind of adjustment is completely normal—the Hang Seng Tech Index has risen 31% this year, and it even hit 6,715 points in early October, reaching a nearly four-year high. After such a sharp rise, it’s only natural to take a breather, right? Veteran investors know that the market never goes up in a straight line—a technical pullback after consecutive gains is the healthiest thing...

Dear friends, there have been many voices in the market during this recent downturn—some say it's due to the escalation of the tariff war, some blame emotional sell-offs, and others believe the bull market has ended. But what I want to say is: don't be misled by this noise. In my view, the tariff war is just the trigger for this decline; the real reason is that the market has risen for too long and too fast, and it needs a healthy 'look back.' It's like when a person runs for too long, they need to catch their breath; the same goes for the market—it needs to rest when it's time. 1. The tariff war is just the surface; the market's essence remains unchanged. The so-called 'tariff war' escalation is, after all, just another move in the game...

Dear friends, recently gold can be said to have "gone crazy"—the international gold price has risen nearly 60% this year, directly hitting $4,216 per ounce. This upward trend is making people itch with excitement, hitting new highs every day, and someone always asks me: "It's so strong now, can we still get on board?" I know, seeing this kind of trend, many people are almost unable to hold back, but I want to say, don’t rush, stay calm. First, gold is also a risky asset—don’t let the rally cloud your judgment. First of all, gold is not a safe haven; it is also a risky asset, and this understanding is crucial. Don’t forget the risks just because it’s been performing well lately. Even gold...

Dear friends, the market sentiment has been stirred up by the "tariff war" recently. As everyone can see, the market generally believes that this so-called "tariff increase" is more of a gesture before the Sino-US negotiations, used as a bargaining chip. It needs to be done formally, but the actual damage is really limited. This time, we also made a move—charging port fees for American ships, while ships built in China will be exempted. Unexpectedly, besides the "big stick" of rare earths, we now have another new "chokehold" tactic. I actually think this move is quite brilliant: it not only shows our stance but also gives us the initiative...

"Trump is back? Don't panic, he really can't make waves this time" Friends, Trump has started his "verbal attack" mode again, this time threatening to impose 100% tariffs on China. We talked a lot about it in the channel yesterday, so today I'll just summarize it in one sentence—this is really nothing new, just the same old trick. Looking back at his operations over the years, in terms of investment, he's almost become a "reverse beacon." Every time he speaks out, the market trembles for a short while, but it quickly recovers. Why? Because his cards are basically all figured out. This time is no different...

《》Dear friends, has this bull market suddenly ended? I see many people panicking today, with voices of "it's over, it's over" flooding social media and group chats. But I want to ask—if our bull is this fragile, collapsing at the slightest breeze, can we really keep playing with it? Honestly, don't be scared by short-term volatility. These market pullbacks and fluctuations are nothing. Instead of obsessing over the ups and downs of a few K-lines every day, take a longer-term view—understand the market from a macro perspective and analyze trends based on core logic. Otherwise, the short-term emotions reflected in daily or weekly charts will just lead you around in circles...

Dear all, today let's talk about something at the "philosophy" level. I've always believed that the stock market is a journey of life. Some people make money in it, while others learn hard lessons. In fact, no matter the outcome, as long as you grow and gain insights in the process, that is already a reward. Not everyone can achieve "perfection," nor is it necessary to deliberately pursue it. The market is always changing, and your knowledge, skills, and mindset are also evolving. This process itself is the greatest wealth. I share this today not from the perspective of a "lecturer," but as someone who has walked this path...

Dear friends, the holiday passed so quickly. To be honest, I haven't checked the market at all these days and completely cleared my mind. For me, today is the first real trading day after the holiday. After a long time without looking at the market, revisiting it actually feels fresh, like returning to a familiar battlefield after a long break. What makes me happiest is that 326 China Star, which I've been waiting for a long time, finally shows signs of starting today. This stock has indeed tested our patience since we first positioned it, but I always thought time would tell. Today's trend has given us a long-awaited signal...

Dear friends, first of all, I wish everyone a happy National Day! During this holiday, take a break if you need to, go out and have fun if you want to, don't keep staring at the market all day. Investment is a long-term process, and life should also have its ups and downs to maintain enthusiasm for the stock market. Being too tense all the time can easily lead to wrong decisions at critical moments. So, take advantage of the holiday to relax your mind and body, go out for a walk—it's also a way to recharge. As for the market, AAC Technologies, which we just opened a position in yesterday, performed quite well today. Plus, JD.com and Meituan, which we're still holding, also delivered good results today...

Friends, today let's talk about how to operate in a bull market. First and foremost, the most critical point is the shift in mindset. It's essential to quickly switch from a bearish mindset to a bullish one—this is extremely important. In a bearish market, people are always hesitant, afraid of pullbacks and getting trapped, so they tend to sell at the slightest fluctuation. But if you bring this mindset into a bull market, you'll end up selling at the first sign of a rise, inevitably missing out on big gains. Right? The most taboo mindset in a bull market is this "fear of falling." Since the trend has already turned bullish, you must dare to hold on. In a real bull market, the biggest risk isn't a drop...

Dear all, today I want to talk about why I never recommend discussing 'whether technical analysis is useful or not.' It's simple—because you're not even talking about the same thing. In the eyes of many, so-called 'technical analysis' is just a few isolated candlestick patterns, moving averages, and indicator signals used to predict future trends. Frankly, this understanding is like fortune-telling—it relies on divination, not a system. But in the eyes of those who truly explore trading systems, technical analysis is nothing like that. It is a geometry of market structure, a sociology of crowd psychology...