Pure Luck

$Ondas(ONDS.US)

Support level: 7.78 (previous low). If it falls below this, it may continue to seek a bottom.

Resistance level: around 9.85 (MA20). A sustained breakout above this level is needed for further rebound potential.

Summary: Currently in a weak rebound phase within a downtrend. Moving averages have not formed a bullish alignment, and trading volume is moderate. In the short term, watch to see if it can hold above the MA20 (around 9.87). Otherwise, there remains a risk of retesting the previous low.

$Ondas(ONDS.US)

Hold on a bit longer, wait for the mid-May earnings report 😭

$Ondas(ONDS.US) When will the war end? 😭

$Ondas(ONDS.US)

$Ondas(ONDS.US) just revised its Q4 and FY2025 earnings report again... This is the second revision in two weeks 🤔

The title looks outrageous:

Net profit turned from a loss of about $53 million to a profit of about $50 million.

Here's the truth of the matter:

This adjustment has nothing to do with revenue. It's a non-cash warrant liability revaluation, involving an accounting entry of about $102 million, which has been excluded from adjusted EBITDA.

What exactly changed for 2025:

Q4 revenue: $29.1M to $30.1M — exceeded expectations ✅

Fiscal year revenue: $49.7M to $50.7M — exceeded expectations ✅

The performance guidance for 2026 is reiterated at $170M to $180M...

This is the guidance part that people think is unimportant 👀

This expectation does not include revenue from all acquisitions announced in 2026.

Rotron, BIRD, Mistral, and INDO will all make significant contributions to the company's business this year.

The floor is $170 million.

The ceiling remains an open question 🤷‍♂️

The final results will be announced before the market opens on March 25th 👊🏼

$Ondas(ONDS.US)

ONDS has been continuously upgrading its strategy, similar to spending money to hoard resources and expand its territory.

However, the market still lacks confidence in the management's execution capabilities. News of new contracts frequently emerges, but the stock price reaction remains tepid.

On the earnings report date of March 25th, if the management can present solid data proving that concrete project contract orders are indeed in operation, then the market's narrative logic will reverse.

$Ondas(ONDS.US)

The stock borrowing fee for ONDS surged from 3.79% to 6.36% in the last approximately 30 minutes before the market close on March 12, 2026 (from 3:33 PM to 4:04 PM). The cost of shorting the stock increased sharply, while the number of shares available for shorting decreased dramatically.

$Ondas(ONDS.US)

The Game Between Warrant Backlog and Institutional Hedging

That's why there's about 40% short interest

$Ondas(ONDS.US)

I noticed some people are wondering why $Ondas(ONDS.US) barely moved when there's good news recently (like the $20 million purchase order today).

⬇️Here's a simple breakdown:

Large institutions bought a lot of $Ondas(ONDS.US) stock through two high-price deals:

• $425 million, around $11.50 per share (stock + 2 $20 warrants)

• $1 billion, around $16.45 per share (stock + 2 $28 warrants)

They paid extra for each package: real stock + long-term warrants (similar to call options).

To protect their principal, they hedged the warrants by shorting the stock. This maintains a neutral strategy, but it also means they'll sell when the stock price rises.

Current price is around $10-11:

• Their shorts are printing money

• The warrants still have time value (2032-2033)

Therefore, they're happy to profit from the hedge now, rather than waiting for the price to go above $20/$28.

❌So, how/when does it stop?

Don't forget they also hold those quality shares! So once $Ondas(ONDS.US) climbs to around $16 or higher (the entry point for the bigger deal), their entire position can be profitable just from those shares.

This means they don't have much reason to rush to sell shares in response to market fluctuations. They might relax the hedging, close out the short positions, and let the market run.

✅Conclusion: These hedges act like a protective blanket, preventing upside until a massive catalyst (a $50-100 million contract, strong earnings, etc.) triggers unstoppable buying that overwhelms selling.

Retail frustration is understandable, but this is a typical warrant overhang situation. Not hopeless forever, just needs bigger good news and a favorable market environment! 💥

$Ondas(ONDS.US)

It felt like a short squeeze at the beginning, then leveraged the AVAV analyst downgrade before earnings (originally the stock was up 20%, then turned to -20%). Feels like a smokescreen, dragging down ONDS so the market maker could test support levels on the pullback, shake out weak hands, and then, with the AVAV earnings around March 10th (possibly beating expectations) boosting sector sentiment, finally pump and dump around the mid-March ONDS earnings.

Not sure if this is how the script plays out. Anyone share a similar view, or have a different take?

$Ondas(ONDS.US) Needs a bit of a catalyst to break through 11

$Ondas(ONDS.US)2026 Catalyst List:

After February 12, 2026

- February 17, 2026 - Department of Defense Drone Dominance Program (Challenge Phase 1). Last week, the 2500 Wasp order from Rift Power was competitive for ONDS.

- February 2026 - Ukraine/NATO Joint Brave bid deadline (C-UAS innovation, ISR/frontline focus; winners to be announced later in 2026).

- Late February 2026 - Confirm World Cup C-UAS integration.

- March 2, 2026 - NATO NCIA C-UAS framework contract award.

- March 6, 2026 - Should respond to participation in DEVCOM Armaments Center Kinetic C-UAS Industry Day.

- March 2026 - Q4/FY 2025 full financial report release (expected mid-March): backlog/acquisition update, European airport C-UAS progress, pipeline execution.

- March 24, 2026 - DEVCOM Kinetic C-UAS Industry Day (Picatinny Arsenal, New Jersey).

- April 20-22, 2026 - European Counter-UAS Technology Conference (London): networking/introductions with decision-makers; potential new bids/partnerships.

- Throughout 2026 - Roboteam integration ramp-up.

- Throughout 2026 - Deploy recently received funds: $10 million new autonomous systems order (announced December 31, 2025; counter-UAS/UAS/ground platforms, primarily 2026 revenue).

- Throughout 2026 - Scale up European airport C-UAS (e.g., recent two $8.2 million Raider deployments; more orders expected).

- 2026 - Norwegian Defence Materiel Agency C-UAS procurement (Class 1 threat, multi-phase).

- 2026 - Dutch Ministry of Defence made significant investment in C-UAS.

- 2026 - Potential expansion of German Bundeswehr C-UAS via Securiton (framework maintenance/support costs up to approx. $79 million).

- Beyond 2026 - European Drone Defence Initiative (multi-layered, interoperable C-UAS for detection/tracking/neutralization, related to NATO, possible joint EU bids).

- Ongoing 2026 - Broader pipeline execution: ongoing $500+ million sales opportunities; 7 advanced-stage M&A/acquisitions; launch of core + strategic growth initiatives; partnerships (e.g., Norway Rift Power/Nammo, Heidelberg for EU manufacturing).