温哥华的小雨

$Alibaba(BABA.US) A rebound is a good opportunity to add to your position, because when it's falling you don't know where the bottom is. In the short term, you can see a price of 130-140 after the earnings report.

$LUXSHARE ICT(02475.HK) Saw the news. Rumor has it that the confident upper limit price has been set, really leaving no room or flexibility at all.

$LAIFUAL(03952.HK) failed to be included in the Stock Connect, so it's basically not favored. The subsequent trend can be referenced to another stock that failed to be included, Lin Qingxuan.

$Alibaba(BABA.US) Recently sold puts in the 100-120 range and took on quite a bit of BABA. It was indeed unexpected for BABA to break below 100, but now is definitely not a good time to bottom-fish. We need to wait for all the negative news to be fully digested. The reason for less posting is because I'm really too busy. Didn't expect BABA to break below support, so sometimes what affects the stock price isn't the company's fundamentals, and that's something you can't calculate.

$LAIFUAL(03952.HK) bought a few lots between 85-90, let's see if it gets included in the Stock Connect for Hong Kong tomorrow.

$Alibaba(BABA.US) A brief farewell to BABA comments, expecting to return within 1-2 months, now focusing on applying for Hong Kong stock IPOs.

$TENNOR THERAP-B(06872.HK)

See if it can make a comeback and hit 200+ to break through the issue price today

$DEEPZERO(02723.HK)$VIEWTRIX TECH(03310.HK)$SDMC(00901.HK)

Three lousy stocks, value investors can just skip them. But now reason tells me that even if the fundamentals are terrible, I can still take a look for opportunities. My personal move is to apply for all three. Capital allocation priority: Yunyinggu > Huaxida > Shenyan, considering the lot size and subscription rate.

$TENNOR THERAP-B(06872.HK)

There's only one stock in the same period, it's an all-in rhythm. The lottery winning rate is expected to be pathetically low. Let's win the lottery first, then think about the stock price issue.

$TOPNC(07688.HK)$UISEE TECH(01511.HK)

Subscription closes tomorrow.

1. UIS is easy to get allocated (18c). A 20% clawback is like getting a 4x lottery card. 2. Top's cornerstone investors are good, quality is good. The mainstream view is to focus on Top first, then UIS with the rest.

Personally, I'm willing to take some risk and focus on UIS this time. Because Top is too crowded, the new IPO on Tuesday will incur 3 days of financing interest. Then, if you only get one lot (worth over 2000), you need a 100% gain just to break even. UIS's issue price likely has the idea of being included in Stock Connect. There's a possibility of loss, but it's not high.

$Alibaba(BABA.US)

Below my personal expectations, but why did the stock start rising after a financial report that everyone thought was terrible was announced?

1 Stock price isn't just about looking at profits; it's about future expectations. The investment in Qianwen's food delivery red packets has been stopped, and regulatory requirements are for platforms not to harm each other, so next quarter's profits are bound to recover.

2 The impact on cloud AI revenue was greater from April to June, so the feedback in the August financial report is expected to be even better. The big AI chip pie has been drawn.

3 The financial report didn't have too many unexpected shocks; in other words, the reduction in profits to invest in AI was already priced in long ago.

$Alibaba(BABA.US)

Analyzing the earnings report from a metaphysical perspective

1 FY26Q3 earnings report was delayed by one month, and the results were disappointing.

2 FY26Q4 earnings report was announced on schedule. Last year it was announced a few days early, with a 2-month gap from the previous report. From a metaphysical viewpoint, those that can be announced early usually don't disappoint. AI will definitely be the key talking point.

This time they should address the dividend issue. There's a high probability of a regular dividend of 1 USD, but don't expect too much from a special dividend.

$LDROBOT(01236.HK)

Subscription Strategy

1 The company is quite average, but based on the current market enthusiasm and the concept of robotics, the probability of breaking the issue price is very low.

2 The market cap is estimated to be aiming for the Stock Connect target. The current entry threshold is 10.5 billion, so from this perspective, there is a floor.

3 It doesn't conflict with the large funds below, so you can subscribe with confidence. Since there's nothing conflicting now, it's probably another All-in stock, just see if you can get an allocation. Jitai is rumored to be listed tomorrow.

$METIS TECHBIO-P(07666.HK)

$COFOE MEDICAL(01187.HK)

Grey market strategy: Considering Kefu is an A+H share and the A-share market won't open tomorrow.

1 If it's up 10%+ or more, you can decisively consider selling.

2 If it's between 0-10%, wait and see, but there's a high probability of selling.

3 If it's below 0, buy 1-2 lots and wait for the first day's opening.

The essence of applying for an IPO is arbitrage, not betting on stock price movements. If you're confident, you can directly buy Kefu's A-shares. Currently, for A+H shares without a greenshoe, the success rate of entering on the first day is relatively high.

$Alibaba(BABA.US)

The next earnings report will focus on dividends and whether there will be a special dividend. I boldly guess that the regular $1 dividend will be maintained this time, with a reduction or no special dividend, because BABA used a large amount of cash in the food delivery war and made significant investments in AI infrastructure over the past fiscal year. $Alibaba(BABA.US) is a company registered in the Cayman Islands, and regardless of whether you are CN or have other tax statuses, no dividend tax will be withheld. Those who have received BABA dividends in the past can take a look at the dividend tax aspect.

$STAR SPORTS MED(01609.HK)$COFOE MEDICAL(01187.HK)

Subscription strategy:

All in on Tianxing. Subscription heat is expected to double, entering the Stock Connect.

Kefu cash application (financing requires 4-5 days of interest). In the current market, there's a high probability of a small profit.

$XIZHI TECH-P(01879.HK)

Based on current market sentiment, congratulations to those who were allocated shares in Xizhi Technology for getting a piece of the pie. The grey market strategy is summarized below; no need to rush to sell.

1. The market is talking about gains of 300-400%. If it really hits 400%, decisively cash out and leave.

2. Don't get too hung up on whether to sell at 50%, 80%, 100%, or 150% gains. Focus on the price difference between Futu's grey market and Phillip's grey market. If the price is higher on Phillip's side and there's strong buy order support, you could consider holding for a few more days. More aggressive traders can try to pick up some shares on Futu.

3. The grey market trend is upward. Consider not selling in the grey market, and instead wait until the first trading day or a few days later to sell. Because cornerstone investors hold 68% and institutional allocations are locked up with little supply, it's highly likely they will still come in to buy.

$XIZHI TECH-P(01879.HK)$SUNMI TECH-W(06810.HK)$MABWELL-B(02493.HK)

This question is simple. The priority of capital allocation is as follows:

Xizhi > Shangmi > Maiwei

Maiwei might be skipped.

$XIZHI TECH-P(01879.HK)Skip the lengthy introduction, go all in directly!

1 Luxurious cornerstone investors

2 Shareholders even more luxurious than the cornerstone investors

3 An industry at the forefront of trends

A must-pick for IPO applications, the price per lot and lot size (15 shares per lot) have the potential for MiniMax to become a meme stock.