我不是母老虎

$Credo Tech(CRDO.US) Mad Max

An old talent indeed, that little card has finally served some purpose.

$Arm(ARM.US)Slow Horse

$Micron Tech(MU.US)In God We Trust

0 Leverage Decline Percentage Required Rise to Break Even

Fall 10% Rise 11.11%

Fall 20% Rise 25.00%

Fall 25% Rise 33.33%

Fall 30% Rise 42.86%

Fall 40% Rise 66.67%

Fall 50% Rise 100.00%

Whenever I get envious and want to jump in, there's always a clear echo in my mind: watch out for the pullback; I never seem to have the luck for quick money or the exposure to get rich overnight; "passive income" suits me better. The $Micron Tech(MU.US) at a cost of 190 is probably a blessing from above.

$Credo Tech(CRDO.US)nice edges

What often drives the slope of the net value are those small structures, such as $Credo Tech(CRDO.US).

As mentioned before, this year hasn't been friendly to people like me who are accustomed to one-sided trading. Because of this, I've been forcing myself to short squeeze my own thinking and re-evaluate the market from the ground up.

In this wave of AI, the next phase is no longer just about looking at the production capacity of "shovels"; it's about penetrating through to see organizational capabilities.

In the past, the market liked to look at models, computing power, orders, and capex first. The watershed going forward will become:

Who can truly embed AI into business processes and rewrite organizational efficiency; who is just using AI as a new round of story packaging.

Ultimately, AI in the near future may not necessarily kill the "software" label first, but it's very likely to kill that thin, brittle, replaceable application layer—

Those companies that still rely mainly on seat-based fees, lack proprietary data, lack distribution rights, lack compliance/trust barriers, and are also positioned where agents can most easily directly replace them.

For now, here are a few short positions on my watchlist:

$ZoomInfo Tech(GTM.US)$Asana(ASAN.US)$Freshworks(FRSH.US) plus a large-cap version: $Workday(WDAY.US)

This year hasn't been friendly to people like me who are used to one-way trading.

I say it's a lack of time, but to be more honest, it's a lack of ability to trade in and out of market swings. Most of my home's computing power is given to my kid: career planning, growth management, question banks, research reports... The research bandwidth and execution windows left for the market are indeed limited.

So this year, I will definitely lower expectations. The gold, silver, crude oil, and FCN positions I started building the year before last, plus the "spare tire turned main" $Micron Tech(MU.US) are all helping to hedge against time pressure and execution errors.

Diversification is self-awareness; spend some time to upgrade your viewpoint from single-point bets to structurally withstanding pressure.

GET RICH NOW!@长桥LONGBRIDGE @股主管理局@活动君

The backup has been promoted$Micron Tech(MU.US)

I've always felt ignorant about financial investments, relying on luck to stay in the market with trepidation; when confused, I binge-watch shows. Recently, a few old films gave me some inspiration:

1, "Person of Interest": Computing power, computing power, computing power; the core focus remains on $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Broadcom(AVGO.US)

2, "iRobot": Intelligence first lands "hands" and "feet". Embodiment and scenarios, focus on warehousing and healthcare: $Symbotic(SYM.US)$Intuitive Surgical(ISRG.US) plus a small bet on $Irobot(IRBT.US) for home scenario observation.

3, "Mad Max": The smallest unit of civilization is electricity. In energy fluctuations, nuclear and fuel chains act as the immune system of the bottom position: $Oklo(OKLO.US)$Cameco(CCJ.US); traditional cash flow is partially distributed in $ExxonMobil(XOM.US)

Position preference: Computing power > Electricity ≈ Robotics (early stage). Treat stories as clues and positions as answers. Recorded here to remind myself: less noise, more patience.

It's December again, and this year's lying flat came a bit early; on one hand, the post-pandemic buying spree of gold resulted in negative costs, on the other hand, after reducing positions in October, I didn't know what to buy and missed $Alphabet(GOOGL.US). Also, daily high-cost living expenses like cosmetic procedures have dropped. For the last month, I'll take it easy on the Nikkei $ISHRS Jpx Nikk 400(JPXN.US).

Haven't checked the market for a long time, missed a trading band, but got a few decent bottles of wine in return. The AI chip stocks along the way, like an old Scottish distillery moving from artisanal to standardized production, have clear styles and steady premiums, just like Glenfiddich 21 Rum Cask. Chinese concept car stocks have always been hard to appreciate—that forced upward momentum is somewhat like Jiangzhe bayberry wine: sweet on the palate, quick to hit, but the tipping point is hard to catch. As for gold and cryptocurrencies, it's probably the old rivalry between Bordeaux and Burgundy—on one side, the scale and discipline of the old guard; on the other, the scarcity and terroir of the nouveau riche. To each their own, each with their own positions. —Choose the right glass, open a good bottle, take it slow.

slow horse $Arm(ARM.US)

Some RMB assets still rely on fixed investment, such as gold