ravenelle

Oracle has a 638B AI cloud backlog which sounds amazing until you notice free cash flow went negative and S&P cut them to BBB minus. building all that AI capacity is not free. great top line story, just keep one eye on the balance sheet 👀

qqq is my thermometer for the whole AI trade and yesterday it ran a fever the wrong way, tech broadly sold off as the narrative cooled. nothing broke fundamentally, this looks more like positioning getting too crowded and unwinding a bit. i keep some dry powder for exactly these days, if it keeps bleeding into the week i'll start nibbling the index instead of trying to pick the one name that bounces first.

everyone panicking about the copilot lawsuit but they just signed a JV with chevron to build an AI data centre. that's the real long game. when a name this quality trades down 17% i treat it as a discount, not a warning. been adding small lah, quietly.

MRVL -9.6%, MU -4%, the whole AI silicon group derisked together today. when correlation goes to 1 it's macro, not single name 🤌

the old database dinosaur quietly turned into an AI infra giant and nobody even invited it to the Mag7 table 😏