Heroic Lifesaver

The good news is that capital is not leaving the market, just rotating within. From high beta AI related names to more defensive ones like healthcare. And those still wanting to remain within tech are congregating in big tech names like Apple.

$ExxonMobil(XOM.US)

I find Exxon Mobil very valuable as both a counterbalance to my tech holdings in the portfolio. Although tied to oil, it has a lower beta and yet cushions the portfolio well in tech sell offs.

It serves to diversify away from cash which is the most obvious shelter in a general sell off. As of now, capital is rotating around seeking the best place to maximise returns.

@Captain's Treasure

Honestly, I am glad we have this dip. Makes the technicals clearer. Looks like the final 5th wave push into the C of a 4th on the SMH. This is the time to go for the win! 💪🏻

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Nvidia looks tired at these levels. For the past two weeks, she has been consolidating in a tight channel undecided where to go. AMD looks much stronger consolidating at around the ATH levels. AVGO looks similar to Nvidia as well as TSM.

And Tech is looking for a direction as well. It looks like it wants to bottom. The bounce will be telling to see if it will make rally to new high.

@Captain's Treasure

Well…what’s new. They have been dancing this way for a few months already! I am surprised the markets still care reacting they do. Technical wise, tech seems to have bottomed around here as well as precious metals.

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US)

AAOI is one of the important companies providing essential networking components in the AI sector. Their specialty is optics and they are expanding and ramping up just as demand skyrockets.

If AAOI can execute well and deliver, expect parabolic returns on this one. They have retreated to very attractive levels and look like they are looking for a bottom.

@Captain's Treasure

The broad market is selling off possibly in reaction to hot labour which means the Fed will have no reason to cut and the ongoing ME standoff which causes oil to rally.

$GE Vernova(GEV.US)

This is the follow up of my prior post on GEV.

Price has retreated post GEV’s earnings. However supports are still holding and the bullish pattern still intact.

Refer to my previous post where I posted the chart. Note the ascending triangle/running flat set up highlighted. Also note the HH HL.

This story says bulls are still in control. That blue lower line is where bears will attempt to take over. The bears have barely had a sniff so far but they are trying. Remember the ascending triangle/running flat mentioned above? That is a powerful bullish setup. Qualifies as a continuation as well as a reversal pattern. In this situation, it serves as a continuation pattern.

Supports must hold. Thats where the lower blue trend line is. Break above the ATH and targets are the box the arrow points to.

@Captain's Treasure

In all honesty, at this moment of time, you have to look at the beneficiaries of the AI buildout not the hyperscalers. The hyperscalers are cash machines building for the future so they are using their cash flows to invest.

Pre Earnings GEV treat

$GE Vernova(GEV.US)

On of my favourite stocks. Not much fanfare but very important in the AI space with excellent fundamentals and very good in what they do. Much like a star defender in a good team. Everyone talks about the strikers and players who score goals but doesn’t pay attention to the unsung heroes. GEV is that star defender.

Technicals and fundamentals align here. I have been buying in layers on the dip. Results in a short while. Let’s see if they can deliver.

I will follow up with another post after earnings.

@Captain's Treasure

$ExxonMobil(XOM.US)

I have highlighted this stock as one of those on the other end of the spectrum for my portfolio which is heavy on tech. Call it a hedge if you want but it is just one of those that tend to do well when tech pulls back.

And it has been doing well. Better than tech at least in the last two weeks or so.

However, when tech roared ahead like last night, instead of retreating at what also happens to be its upper resistance line, it breaks above it.

Chevron has done so earlier. So I am not surprised Exxon joined the party. Can it hold above the line now? That will be the tell.

@Captain's Treasure

Talk about a deluge of earnings to kick off tech earnings. Earnings for Tesla and Alphabet will be eagerly waited for. But before that, I am excited for GEV who will report before market opens.

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

I am leaning bullish on Alphabet into earnings, but the key test is whether its enormous AI investment is translating into profitable growth.

In Q1, Search revenue grew 19% while Google Cloud surged 63% to $20 billion, suggesting AI is strengthening rather than cannibalising the core business. So I will be watching Cloud growth, Search monetisation and operating margins closely.

The main risk is Alphabet’s planned $180–190 billion of 2026 capital expenditure, which could pressure free cash flow and increase depreciation.

Strong growth combined with disciplined spending would reinforce the bull case.

@Captain's Watch

$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US)

Let’s have a look at Gold’s chart and its price action. Since what looks like a local low on 24th June, Gold has held those lows and seems to have successfully retested it rebounding off the avwap at 365. If the price firms up and rallies from here, the bottom might be in. On a side note, price has made 3 waves off the ATH and a full 5 waves looks complete for the C wave. In other words, the fourth wave looks complete in terms of price and time.

@Captain's Treasure

It has been a healthy pullback for tech especially the AI names, much needed in fact. Price looks like it is stabilising and ready for its next leg up.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

It’s time to look at Nvidia for the week. Last week, she was holding right above the 200D MA precariously. However, she held that support and started turning up towards the end of the week as higher beta keeps getting sold.

When you look at similar big cap profiles in tech such as AMD, AVGO and TSM, AVGO is the closest whereas AMD is pretty strong followed closely by TSM who are both well clear of their 200D MA.

Now look at what is considered the defensive play for tech - Apple. She has been rallying ahead in the meantime.

Now digest all that and look at the big picture. It is actually telling you a story. Earnings are coming up and funds usually de risk into them especially when they are well green on their positions. And some funds are tech oriented so they must stay within the tech world. Guess where they park their money while waiting? They need huge mega caps which are less volatile and won’t move that much with that much capital. The names doing well in the tech mega cap space are the chosen ones. Apple is the clear beneficiary being a tech stalwart yet not a hyperscaler.

If earnings shows that AI is doing well and hyperscalers are not cutting back while starting to monetise AI and forward guidance confirms, I am expecting high beta AI beneficiaries which have sold off to rally hard surprising many retails who are now bearish.

@Captain's Treasure

Apple is benefitting from rotating tech capital that are seeking refuge in the big cap which wants to stay in tech rather than deploying into defensive names outside of tech.