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In traditional financial markets, buying at the lowest point of a bear market and selling at the highest point of a bull market is almost impossible. Whether in the A-share market or the US stock market, it seems no one can do it. Even in the A-share market, I managed to exit at the peaks in 2015 and 2021, but I still think market timing is very difficult. However, there is one asset called Bitcoin. Its bull and bear cycles are extremely regular, so even ordinary people can easily do it once they understand the pattern. This pattern is very simple—just look at the calendar. Below are the peak dates for each Bitcoin bull market...

Some time ago, Bitcoin rebounded, and some people thought the bull market was back. Actually, this position is not the bottom. The reason is simple: the bottom of Bitcoin is a sideways consolidation range, followed by a rapid surge on the right side to confirm the start of a bull market. The current situation does not match this pattern. To understand this, just review the trends at the bottom of the previous bear markets. Below is the bottom of the 2015 bear market. Below is the bottom of the 2018 bear market. Below is the bottom of the 2022 bear market. Reviewing the previous cycles, we find striking similarities. At the end of a bear market, there is often a final drop that breaks through everyone's psychological line of defense...

Recently, I've noticed that many big players' circles are using the MA120 strategy to time the market for Bitcoin, which really puzzles me. First, let me explain what a moving average strategy is: it means holding Bitcoin when the price is above the 120-day moving average, and staying in cash when it's below. This is a simple yet effective strategy because Bitcoin has clear bull and bear cycles with relatively smooth trends, so a simple moving average strategy can improve returns. However, I don't recommend this strategy because it's too counter-intuitive. Once you encounter prolonged sideways consolidation, you'll end up constantly buying high and selling low, leading to significant attrition...

As the big coin recently stabilized above $70,000 after a period of sideways movement, there has been a clear divergence in views on the future market trend, with some bullish and some bearish. To sum up, there are roughly two perspectives. The first view holds that the $60,000 level in February of this year was the bottom of this bear market, and a gradual recovery will occur in the second half of the year. The second view believes that the four-year cycle is still valid, and the current situation is merely a bear market bounce; the true bottom has not yet arrived. I lean towards the latter view; $60,000 is not the bottom. Many say that the rebound from $60,000 to $79,000 seems like a stabilization and recovery...

For investing this year, just remember this one sentence: Buy Bitcoin on October 6, 2026. Other than that, don't look at anything else. The more you look, the more interference you get. For this year, buying the dip in Bitcoin during the crypto bear market is an excellent investment opportunity. Otherwise, do you want to FOMO buy A-shares? FOMO buy US stocks? Go all in on gold? If you think this opportunity isn't good enough, then ask yourself: Did your assets multiply by 5 times from 2023 to 2025? During that period, Bitcoin rose 5 times. If your asset growth rate hasn't outpaced Bitcoin's rise, then this year...

Recently, the big coin rebounded to 78,000, and I noticed some people are starting to be bullish again, only looking at short-term trends, as if it's bottoming out, but actually this is a bull trap. Every time I see this kind of comment, I want to say, if you always see a bull market when it goes up and a bear market when it goes down, it's hard to make money. Why is 60,000 not the bottom? The reason lies in insufficient time and space. From a time perspective, historical bear markets have lasted a year. Could this one bottom out after just half a year? That doesn't quite fit past patterns. From a space perspective, this bear market has only fallen 50%, far less than the 75% drop in the previous bear market, which also doesn't fit the pattern...