市场是对的我才是错的

$GBA AI COMP(01396.HK) As machines are piling up over there, electricity is becoming insufficient. $American Electric Power(AEP.US) and $Global X Uranium(URA.US) are consequently pushed to the forefront. The ultimate bottleneck for AI is actually a power shortage first—this plot is a bit mind-blowing 😎

Once trading volume picks up, the brokerage firms start to have stories. $CICC(03908.HK), $CITIC SEC(06030.HK), and $Morgan Stanley(MS.US) — these are the ones that get lively first when the bull market scent arrives.

Mixing the concepts of AI and quantum is really mind-blowing. Names like $BigBear.ai(BBAI.US), $Quantinuum(QNT.US), $SENASIC(06675.HK), and $MAN YUE TECH(00894.HK) sound so futuristic, but they're still a bit far from materializing. It's all for fun and a bit of a gamble 😎

Copper and aluminum were basically flat today, with Freeport-McMoRan down 0.6% and Alcoa almost unchanged 😔

Bulk metals had no clear directional drivers today. Copper prices oscillated at high levels, with the market waiting for new incremental macro data. The valuations of both targets are closely linked to spot prices of copper and aluminum. The current trend indicates the market has no particularly strong new expectations for the economic outlook.

WuXi Biologics has maintained relatively stable order visibility amid overseas regulatory uncertainties thanks to its global CXO platform, with its current P/E ratio of about 25x being lower than the average of 30x for the Hong Kong stock healthcare sector.

Insilico Medicine's AI-driven drug discovery platform has a differentiated advantage in pipeline advancement speed, but the pace of commercialization is currently the biggest variable.

Junshi Biosciences is undergoing commercial expansion after its toripalimab was approved in the US, with marginal growth in overseas revenue being the trigger for stock price recovery.

I-Mab, as a clinical-stage oncology immunotherapy asset, has pipeline progress as its sole valuation driver. Overall, the combination of CRO + innovative drugs tends to underperform the broader market when geopolitical risk premiums are high, but in the long run, Hong Kong-listed healthcare stocks still trade at a discount compared to their A-share counterparts, making them worthy of continued attention.

Shandong Molong's decline is clearly linked to the weakness in oil and gas. It's really a case of surging one season and plummeting the next. Those trading cyclical stocks without conviction can't handle it. On the other hand, Biren and Horizon Robotics have been quite resilient recently, with AI chips still holding up in this wave. 😸😸

Uber benefits from the expected improvement in travel demand, and a weaker DXY is a positive for the currency conversion of its international business revenue.

Verizon is a high-dividend defensive stock, with the attractiveness of its dividend recovering in an environment of expected interest rate declines.

Crocs maintains strong pricing power against the backdrop of resilient consumer spending, with its valuation at a relatively low level.

Diageo and Constellation Brands belong to the spirits industry, with a slowdown in high-end consumption being a recent headwind. However, a weaker DXY provides a positive foreign exchange contribution to DEO's international revenue, while STZ's Mexican beer brands, which rely on imports, are significantly affected by the uncertainty of tariffs.

$Cemtrex(CETX.US) and $Dreamland(TDIC.US) are speculative small-cap stocks on Nasdaq, and their price swings can be extreme. $Fundrise Innovation Fund LLC(VCX.US) is in the dental equipment sector, while $Figma(FIG.US) follows a stable, utility-like style.

The common characteristics of these stocks are their small size, sensitivity to news, and susceptibility to being pushed by capital flows. For retail investors, the biggest risk in trading such stocks is the liquidity trap—holding is fine, but once negative news hits, you might not be able to exit. It's crucial to be extra cautious with position sizing.

$Kratos Defense & Security(KTOS.US) $Lockheed Martin(LMT.US) The defense sector has completely taken off this wave; in contrast, $Red Cat(RCAT.US) and $Swarmer(SWMR.US) have fallen so much it's disheartening. I should have allocated more weight to the large caps in my portfolio, at least it wouldn't be so agonizing. 😪

Extreme Vision directly +20%, AI stocks are really not for humans to play, missed the boat again this time. Watching others with a big bullish candlestick, trying hard to tell myself not to chase highs, haven't forgotten the lesson from chasing AI last time, but my heart is still itching 😰

Kailaiying and Rongchang Biotech feel like they're about to take off. The pharmaceutical sector still has something going for it. 😂

Yuejiang and Chery Automobile aren't falling behind either. Tech and automakers are taking turns on stage, making those losing stocks in my portfolio look especially glaring. 🥲

Feihe is still not showing any improvement. The infant formula sector has been really tough these past few years, with the birth rate being what it is, demand has pretty much hit its ceiling. Those who got trapped earlier can't be bothered to move now; holding on doesn't mean they expect to break even anymore.

The distinction between the new and old market themes is crystal clear today:

Insilico Medicine and RemeGen directly delivered a massive short squeeze; missing out on this wave of biopharma + AI is another warning.

Leapmotor is also doing well; new energy vehicles are indeed the resilient "pigs in the wind" that just won't die down.

On the flip side, looking at Ubtech, although AI robotics is a hot theme, it always seems unable to take off.

Stocks like Wolong Resources in the materials sector are indeed tough to hold; even a small dip leaves one feeling numb.

In the current market, if you're one step too slow, you miss the trend; if you're one step too fast, you easily get buried. 😥

Today I looked at the Shanghai Electric and Muyuan shares I hold: the narrative on the information side is about high-end manufacturing, but the stock price is just quietly falling. Shanghai Electric has ground down almost -3% again; Muyuan is even worse, down over -4%. The promised valuation recovery has once again turned into a mirage😥

Bank of America and JPMorgan have reasonable valuations under the soft-landing narrative, but once credit spreads widen, the pressure from bad debt repricing will be transmitted quickly.

SoFi is highly dependent on a steepening yield curve; if the curve doesn't move, the catalyst will be absent.

Oscar Health and Planet Labs have low macro sensitivity and are independent growth stories; they shouldn't be evaluated under the same framework as bank stocks🧐

$Applied Digital(APLD.US) and $USA Rare Earth(USAR.US) performed like this today, are AI and rare earth stocks hitting new highs again? I thought they would cool off after last week's surge, but they're still holding strong. I missed the boat and could only sigh while watching them go up +5%, +7%. Watching these thematic rotations, I really don't dare to chase the highs anymore, but every time I think 'wait and see' is safer, it just leaves a mess of regrets in the end 😰

The crypto mining machine group is too strongly correlated with BTC, and the independent reference value of technical analysis is limited ⚡ CleanSpark's moving average alignment is relatively healthy, with support at the 50-day line holding steady. The volume ratio of IREN and APLD has recently increased. Entry reference is near the 20-day line of CleanSpark, stop loss if it breaks the 50-day line, target is the previous high resistance, with a risk-reward ratio of about 1:2. CAN and Bitdeer have too much volatility, position size needs to be controlled 🙈

A few ultra-small cap stocks: $Swarmer(SWMR.US) surged 520%, this kind of meme stock really isn't something normal people should touch. The two tech stocks in my hands, $Sidus Space(SIDU.US) and $SMX Security Matters(SMX.US), one fell nearly 3%, the other directly turned green by 8%. Whatever I buy doesn't move, and whatever I don't buy keeps rising every day. $Sidus Space(SIDU.US) and $Solaris Energy Infrastructure(SEI.US), these hype-driven stocks are also flying, the market looks exactly like a game of musical chairs. Honestly, right now I'm just afraid of being one step too slow, and then when the hype passes, I become the naive investor. I can only be a bit more zen, just watch the excitement and not follow the trend 🙈

The three driving forces of storage, connectors, and semiconductors all emerged together today. Seagate and Amkor directly shot up with a big red candle each. The tech hardware chain has been performing quite strongly lately. I was watching the storage stocks dragging their feet before, but they finally showed some improvement these past couple of days. 😂

Today, watching China Financial International and CNOOC Petrochemical rise slightly, I feel the sector rotation has been particularly confusing these past two days. Occasionally catching a small gain is purely down to luck.

Bank of China and BOC Hong Kong are old veterans, just that steady, with little excitement whether they rise or fall.

Lexing Outdoor has recently turned green again, this trend is really something. They keep talking about undervaluation, growth, and concepts in turn. The Hong Kong stock market's situation has really worn me out. If it weren't for the pain of cutting losses, I'd have given up long ago.

$Commercial Vehicle(CVGI.US) took off directly, surging over 25%. Feels like I missed the boat and can only watch silently…

This year, the market keeps popping up these big gains from obscure stocks that come from behind. Unfortunately, I'm still stuck flipping between a bunch of large-cap stocks. Boeing and American Airlines are in the red again, and there's no sign of stabilization in the aviation sector at all. Those who bottom-fished earlier, if you really can't hold on, just take a break for now. Concept stocks like ACHR have risen a bit, but compared to CVGI, it's still depressing. Lately, it's really been about gaining index points but not making money. So frustrating 🥲

Seeing $LENOVO GROUP(00992.HK) still manage a small gain today is truly a mix of laughter and tears 😂

Other tech stocks have been a complete mess these past two days, with Fanxing Intelligence and Innoscience continuing to show no hope of recovery. Investing in semiconductors and smart manufacturing feels like signing a timely stop-loss agreement.

The tiny gains from Rongchang Biopharma and Junda shares are just about "surviving is enough." It's a phase of zen-like holding now; anyway, the position isn't heavy, so I can't be bothered to move.

The market is just like this now. Everyone wants to find the main trend, but individual stocks are all going their separate ways. I'll just keep hammering away here, waiting for the wind to come back someday 😀

My portfolio today looks a bit interesting 🧐 $Opendoor Tech(OPEN.US) rising slightly makes me wonder if the US real estate market has really bottomed out. $Disney(DIS.US) and $Walmart(WMT.US) have always been the big brothers in US stocks, not rising much but stable, the kind you can hold with confidence. The recent trend of $Lululemon(LULU.US) and $Nike(NKE.US) is really grinding; the sports consumption line seems to have little enthusiasm now, so the holdings have returned to a 'Buddha-like' mode.

It feels like the market has no emotion lately, but my positions have turned into 'sleep-earned income' in the meantime. That's fine too; grinding is better than a bomb going off 😂

Data hardware stocks have really been disappointing lately. $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) had its moment in the spotlight, but looking back, it's lonely at the top. Several memory stocks like $Western Digital(WDC.US) and $Seagate Tech(STX.US) have also made the necessary adjustments. $Corning(GLW.US) is down almost -7%, which is painful just to watch. We used to say "buy the dip" for hard tech, but now it's really testing faith and blood pressure... The market is completely flat. Let's continue to play dead and wait and see, no more messing around for now.

$Vnet(VNET.US) is green again today, and the autonomous driving company $WeRide(WRD.US) also fell. It's just been a triple whammy of losses all day. The recent performance of small-cap tech stocks is really hard to describe. I had some hope for $Echostar(SATS.US), but it disappointingly followed the decline. In this current market, it feels like all "innovative tech" has become a tool to increase account volatility, making it hard to adjust positions. Whatever, whatever. Those with patience can only continue to endure.