韭菜觉醒版

$Franklin FTSE South Korea(FLKR.US) riding the storage supercycle, $ISHRS MSCI Taiwan Capped(EWT.US) tied to the leading OEM, $Pro Vix Shrt Fut(VIXY.US) and $Pro Ultr Natural Gas(BOIL.US) one betting on panic and the other on natural gas—tactical positions are never meant to be held long-term; they're for expressing a view.

The advertising of $Trade Desk(TTD.US), the AI lending of $Upstart(UPST.US) and $Pagaya Tech(PGY.US), the IoT platform of $Tuya(TUYA.US), and the collaboration tools of $Atlassian(TEAM.US)—these different ways of surviving in the software world are all waiting for their respective second growth curves to be validated😪

When mentioning $Beigene(ONC.US), names like $SBP GROUP(01177.HK), $PHARMARON(03759.HK), $GENFLEET-B(02595.HK), and $HJ SCIENCE-B(06132.HK) always come to mind. The story of innovative drugs going global has been closely watched over the past two years.

The feeling of having heavyweight stocks as ballast is still steady. Core holdings like $AstraZeneca(AZN.US), $Abbvie(ABBV.US), and $Boston Scientific(BSX.US) actually make one feel more secure when the market is weak.

Nuclear power and critical minerals have become the hidden easter eggs of AI power, $NANO Nuclear Energy(NNE.US), $Niocorp Developments(NB.US), $Nova Minerals(NVA.US) have been waiting for the trend in uranium and rare earths.

$Cognex(CGNX.US), $Kulicke and Soffa(KLIC.US), $GSI Tech(GSIT.US), $ Sandisk - WI.US — these names are all relatively small-cap. In segments like machine vision, packaging equipment, memory chips, and storage, market sentiment tends to follow wherever AI capital expenditure trickles down to. 😎

Intel is rumored to be in talks with Apple about foundry cooperation, having already risen over 220% this year. Is this transformation finally successful, or is it just hype?

CIM Commercial Trust is a commercial real estate REIT, with valuations at low levels after being suppressed by high interest rates; Q1 office occupancy rate is a recent indicator;

Eightco Holdings has a mixed business of blockchain + consumer goods, with extremely low liquidity;

Swarmer is a micro-cap stock with no clear path to commercialization;

Redcloud Holdings focuses on digital finance in Africa, representing high risk in emerging markets;

Rectitude Holdings is a small technology company in Singapore.

All five share the common characteristics of small market capitalization and poor liquidity, collectively forming a highly speculative portfolio. Any single one requires independent, deep due diligence before any investment can be made.

Physical gold has performed strongly over the past year, but gold mining stocks have been continuously dragged down by cost inflation and operational pressures at mines — the gold mining sector fell over 7% in a single week in March, triggering a technical bear market.

This divergence is precisely the logic behind betting on $Microsectors Gold Miners -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN(GDXD.US): rising copper prices and mine energy costs are squeezing the per-ounce profit margins of gold mining companies, leading to a rare divergence between gold mining stocks and the gold price. VIX above 19 supports safe-haven demand for physical gold (benefiting GLDM), while the logic of inflation eroding miners' costs has not dissipated (supporting GDXD).

If the gold price falls below $4,500, the long position logic for GDXD will be stronger; if the gold price continues to rise and cost pressures on miners ease, the divergence between the two will narrow.

GigaDevice's movement today 😥 The chip sector's recent trend is still a bit weird.

ICBC is stable, but the gains are really sleep-inducing.

Weichai Power managing to show some momentum is a credit to the manufacturing sector, but honestly, take profits when you can. Who knows when it might turn on you.

Recently, mining stocks have been a bit quiet. The cyclical leaders like $Freeport Mcmoran(FCX.US) and $Alcoa(AA.US) haven't shown any signs of recovery either.

$Albemarle(ALB.US) took another dive. The lithium market has been chopped up repeatedly, going back and forth like a rollercoaster.

$Sigma Lithium(SGML.US) is still holding up, but it's unclear if it's just a feint.

And then there's $Global X Copper Miners(COPX.US), which is now just going with the flow.

$IBM(IBM.US) $Paypal(PYPL.US) $HSBC(HSBC.US) $JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF(JEPQ.US) $iShares Russell 2000(IWM.US)

After cross-validation, the soft landing narrative is currently barely holding, but cracks are widening:

High copper prices, credit spreads not expanding, and relatively stable corporate profits—these are all evidence that a soft landing is "still there." However, renewed oil price strength combined with tariff pressures is shaking the logic that "inflation is dead"; VIX for March exceeded 21, and the Consumer Confidence Index fell to 56.4, indicating a shift towards pessimism in sentiment.

This set of assets is logically a beneficiary of a soft landing: IBM's enterprise AI deployment is stable, PayPal's transaction volume has good resilience, HSBC is a barometer for global macro, JEPQ uses option income to smooth volatility, and IWM bets on small-cap stocks catching up under expectations of monetary easing.

The biggest risk is IWM—it's most sensitive to interest rate cut expectations, but the Fed's current rate cut timeline has been repeatedly delayed, with the probability of a cut at the April FOMC meeting close to 0%. A flat yield curve means long-term rates can't come down, so IWM's catch-up logic will be continuously delayed. If you want to hold this set, JEPQ's monthly dividend (just paid $0.559 in April) is a good tool for averaging down holding costs 🎯

Chips and semiconductors have been really underperforming these past two days. National Technology and Tianyue Advanced both turned green. I was still thinking that tech was going to have a rally, but in the end, I could only watch my account shrink bit by bit. All I can say is, while the faith is still there, my wallet has been 'educated' many times already 😰

Kingboard Laminates directly took a big hit of -5%, this round of adjustment in electronic materials is really disheartening. Ping An Good Doctor and MicroPort® Robot are both in the red, only Pharmaron finally turned a little green, but it's still better than nothing...

A few small-cap stocks: The volatility of Lionteng Holdings and Green Tea Group is so small it's like they're not awake, Silicon Xin Group was directly suspended, but China Silver suddenly pulled a big bullish candlestick, though it was still lying low the past two days, so I don't dare to chase. TravelSky only moved a little, feels like the main trend isn't here, the market is still shaking aimlessly, still gotta follow the main trend 🤔

Nanshan Aluminum International, Estun, and Montage Technology are all deep in the red, suffering heavy losses. It's unclear whether it's due to the fading of the AI concept or the market simply abandoning high-tech manufacturing. APT Satellite also can't hold on, really making one think that tech stock rallies are easy to form but also quick to fall apart. In contrast, Haitian Flavouring & Food Company drops a little bit every day just for show, but overall it remains relatively calm.

Watching these three big blue chips—HKEX, HSBC, and CK Hutchison—not moving at all, it's like they're asleep, I'm speechless 😪 Tech stocks like SenseTime and GigaDevice still bounce around a bit, but honestly, with all the volatility these past few days, chasing isn't wise, but not chasing feels like missing out. Wanting to cut old positions but can't bear to, holding them feels hopeless, just resigned to fate...

MeiGe ZhiNeng (002881.SZ) surged +5.8% today, tech

Small-cap stocks can be so volatile when they move, that feeling of missing out is back... I was thinking of getting in after a pullback, but I guess I'm just too timid. On the other hand, a "steady old friend" like Haitian Flavoring Industry (603288.SH) keeps falling, even defensive stocks don't feel safe anymore.

Both the tech and consumer sectors are giving me anxiety, I really don't dare to go heavy.

The DOE announced a list of hydrogen infrastructure subsidies, with Plug Power included, causing an immediate uproar on social media. Today's unusual movement isn't the first time—Plug Power has experienced several rounds of similar policy-driven rallies, and the price has basically retraced after each surge. The core issue remains unchanged: the cash burn rate far outpaces the speed at which subsidies can fill the gap. After the short-term sentiment subsides, where will the valuation anchor be? It's worth thinking carefully before deciding whether to participate. 💡

Opendoor had a pull-up during today's session. I looked up related information and found that a Fed official made dovish remarks that day, repairing interest rate cut expectations. Zillow and RE/MAX moved in sync during the same period, indicating this wave was driven by macro sentiment, with no fundamental changes in Opendoor itself. There's also no new action on the SEC filings or insider trading front. Therefore, it's more likely to be noise. 😸

This wave of new energy solar really shattered my mentality: SolarEdge and Canadian Solar each took a big hit in a single day. Not only was it a face-pounding, but it feels like the market really doesn't love them for the time being...

On the other hand, silver and nuclear energy have been on a roll lately. Pan American Silver and Constellation Energy have been rising as if driven by faith.

If I had held onto more cash at this point, I probably wouldn't be feeling so conflicted now. The wheel of fortune truly turns; now I can only watch the new energy sector and sigh 😪

Mastercard is also an old friend, with little volatility all along. After all, large-scale finance still requires stability. The market loves to tell stories now, but steady wealth accumulation still relies on these big, long-term players. They may seem unexciting, but the ones you can truly hold onto are actually these types of stocks.

The $Planet Labs(PL.US) I'm holding is still undergoing a slight correction. There have been too many story-driven rallies in tech stocks over the past two years, and I've become numb to it now. The robotics concept like $Richtech Robotics - B(RR.US) isn't rising or falling; this sideways movement is even more mentally draining than a drop, it's really agonizing. $GE Aerospace(GE.US) managed a slight gain, which at least lets me catch my breath a bit, but I still feel the old-school defensive plays are more reliable. $GEVO(GEVO.US) is so timid again. The new energy sector story has been hyped to the skies, yet the stock price gives me a -3%. I believed in too many trends, and now my wallet is getting lighter 😀

This recent wave in gold and copper mining stocks really tests one's character, $Microsectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN(GDXU.US) crashed hard, long positions were wiped out, while $Microsectors Gold Miners -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN(GDXD.US) and $Microsectors Gold Miners -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN(GDXD.US) soared. Those who missed the 3x short opportunity really know how to seize the moment. I see $SPDR Gold Minishares(GLDM.US) couldn't hold up either, copper prices also sank, and $Global X Copper Miners(COPX.US) turned green again. Honestly, in this kind of market, you really need to be zen in your approach. Chasing rallies and selling in panic just makes you cannon fodder. Better to have a cup of tea and wait for the cycle to turn. Whether you're long or short, someone's crying and someone's laughing. The key is not to get too carried away yourself.

The optical module sector performed poorly again today. Both $Zhongji Innolight(300308.SZ) and $Eoptolink(300502.SZ) are down, dragging even traditional equipment stocks like $SH ELECTRIC(02727.HK) along for the ride. Honestly, I thought these two small tech stocks could still make some moves, but with this current wave of gradual decline, those holding positions are almost becoming indifferent... The money is all locked in, hard to cut losses, and I can't bear to exit either. I miss out when it rises, but I'm always there for the fall. When even the main technical trend shows this kind of performance, it's really a bit disheartening. Who still understands us who cling to the "old dream"?