龙城旧梦

The web literature IP in the hands of $CHINA LIT(00772.HK) and the TapTap community of $XD INC(02400.HK) represent two business models in the content industry: one sells stories, the other sells traffic. The potential for AI adaptation to reduce costs has not yet been priced in by the market.

$Microsectors Gold Miners -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN(GDXD.US), $A CSOP HSCEICC(02802.HK), $Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box ETF(BOXX.US) These reverse, covered call, and cash-like instruments are used to cool down the market or seek stability. They are quiet when the market is hot, acting precisely as the other side of the mirror.

The more active the market, the more comfortable $Cboe Global Markets(CBOE.US) is as a toll collector; $AIA(01299.HK) and $CHINA LIFE(02628.HK) rely on the stability of long-term funds, while $BRIGHT SMART(01428.HK) and $YUNFENG FIN(00376.HK) depend on the mood of Hong Kong stock trading volume 🙃

$Plug Power(PLUG.US) betting on hydrogen, $Sunrun(RUN.US) betting on rooftop solar, $DAJIN(01081.HK) betting on offshore wind power. In the new energy sector, there are still people willing to slowly shoulder these particularly tough paths.

Just jot this down — $STANCHART(02888.HK), $Strive(ASST.US), $Veeva Systems -CL(VEEV.US). One is a multinational bank, one is an alternative asset manager, and one is a healthcare SaaS company. They're all solid players in their respective niches, so I'm putting them in the watchlist for future reference.

Small-cap stocks in optical interconnect and AI infrastructure are good at spinning stories. Stocks like $Lightwave Logic(LWLG.US), $Keel Infrastructure(KEEL.US), and $IFBH(06603.HK) — these recent listings and small-cap stocks ride on the hype of AI data centers. They are highly volatile; the faint-hearted should stay away. 🙈

Urban agriculture, insect protein, rare disease drugs, $Edible Garden AG(EDBL.US), $Cuprina(CUPR.US), $Eloxx Pharmaceuticals(ELOX.US) are novel enough, but liquidity and investor attention are still at a very early stage 😝

The Hong Kong stock market's biopharmaceutical sector showed significant divergence today 😔.

WuXi Biologics fell by 3.9%, and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group fell by 4.2%. CROs and traditional pharmaceutical companies are under pressure from short-term valuation due to overseas compliance risk sentiment.

CARsgen Therapeutics-B rose against the trend by 3.7%, reflecting selective capital attention on some innovative drug pipeline targets. Desheng-B remained largely flat.

The overall valuation of Hong Kong-listed pharmaceutical stocks remains relatively low globally, but regulatory uncertainty and geopolitical sensitivity are persistent discount factors. It is necessary to distinguish between systemic sector pressure and individual stock alpha.

IV data first: Astera Labs' recent month IV is around 85%, historical volatility is about 60%, with a 25-point premium, and IV Percentile is around the 80th. The Put/Call ratio is about 0.55, significantly skewed towards calls.

Open interest is heavily concentrated in the $85-$100 strike price range, with the market pricing in the upside elasticity for the Q1 earnings report (expected EPS YoY +63.6%, revenue YoY +83.5%).

The GEX positive gamma concentration zone is at $80-$90, and the negative gamma acceleration zone is above $100. The implied probability distribution from the options market supports a directional bullish view.

$Tradr 2X Long ALAB Daily ETF(LABX.US) As a 2x leveraged instrument, naked call buying is expensive when IV is high. Consider using LABX as an alternative for short-term directional exposure to control premium costs.

I've been keeping an eye on these few gold sector stocks again recently, $Newmont(NEM.US), $Sibanye Stillwater(SBSW.US), and these ETFs like $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX.US), $iShares Gold Trust(IAU.US), $SPDR Gold Minishares(GLDM.US). Honestly, the gains haven't been great. Gold always feels suppressed; it tries to rally a bit and then gets immediately doused with cold water.

Today, these stocks in the semiconductor equipment and photonics sectors are all surging, ASML, AMAT, COHR, Seagate, TSEM. It feels like market funds have gone crazy again 😀

Sunac Services suddenly surged 9%, making me doubt my own eyes. Having been taught a lesson by property stocks before, I don't dare chase the rebound now. On the pharmaceutical side, Hengrui and Geli seem ready to take off, and there are also obscure tickets like Maoji Kuiyong, but I'm too afraid to touch them, fearing I'll miss out. Only the slight gains of New China Life Insurance look more like a token gesture, but big money is probably still hesitating on the sidelines.

Today, I watched $TONGGUAN GOLD(00340.HK), $WUXI LEAD(00470.HK), $AXERA(00600.HK), and $FIBOCOM(00638.HK) all fall together. Especially Xian Dao Intelligent crashed nearly 8%. This wave of AI chips is really painful.

For main sectors like new energy, gold, and smart hardware, it feels like it's all about chips being slaughtered recently, with no sector effect at all.

I've reduced my position to a zen-like state lately. I have no choice but to watch more and move less. I'll just observe for a while first 😥

The expectation for GDS's privatization has been weighing on the market, with major shareholders continuously taking action. Referring to similar Chinese concept stock privatization premiums of 20-35%, the biggest stumbling block is getting past CFIUS.

Orbs is relatively small in scale, making its acquisition probability relatively marginal.

Serv is a potential target for DoorDash or Uber. The delivery robot sector has reached an integration point; whoever moves first will secure their position. There have been scattered unusual movements on the call side recently, with the 90-day GEX slightly positive. One could consider pairing it with a covered call for gains 🤖

Resource stocks have been a bit active again recently: gold and copper are especially strong, $Harmony Gold Mining(HMY.US) directly rose over five percentage points, $Freeport Mcmoran(FCX.US) also had a big bullish candle, feels like I missed the rotation.

At times like this, having no position makes you itchy, but being heavily invested makes you fear a pullback from the highs. $Alcoa(AA.US) is still falling. The rhythm of the rotation makes people increasingly zen.

That's the nature of resource stocks: either they don't move at all, or they all surge together. Holding them long-term is mentally exhausting, but once they start moving, it's a bittersweet feeling 😪

The defense sector concept is getting active again, KTOS took off directly, up 6% in a day. Although Raytheon and Amphenol dipped slightly, the overall sentiment is still there. Every time the defense sector moves, it's driven by news. It's hard to say how long this kind of stock will last, but those who held and didn't sell today must be feeling pretty good. I'm the type who wants to sell on a spike but is afraid of missing out. I never feel secure with defense stocks, really can't hold them🥲

$Regencell Bioscience(RGC.US) dipped a bit again today😥. The biopharmaceutical sector has truly tested patience these past two years; not encountering a black swan event is already considered "good news" for me. On the other hand, $Reddit(RDDT.US) with its volatile temper surged sharply during the session, reminding me of the collective frenzy of all-in new economy IPOs last year. Now I can only console myself: investing in pharma will surely rise tomorrow, at least investing in communities is lively. Watching the capital flow, my heart is filled with mixed emotions😥.

Precious metals are stuck in a churning market again recently. $First Majestic Silver(AG.US) keeps giving me small, gradual declines every day, grinding my conviction to dust 😪 Newmont Mining is relatively stable, not gaining much, but considering the gold narrative for this year isn't over yet, I really can't bear to exit.

I always feel this isn't the time to make quick money with these kinds of assets, but my hands can't resist and get restless. The longer I hold, the more confused I get. Just gonna stay zen and hold 🙏

$ LINGBAOGOLD-1K.HK is also falling along with metals, down more than 5%. It seems the market's defensive sentiment isn't working either.

It feels like those who piled into gold stocks in the last wave are now somewhat unwilling to cut their losses. Having heard the gold story for so long, it's actually easier to become reluctant to let go.

As the saying goes: to hold or to cut, it's always a psychological game.

The banking stocks in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are really frustrating. Holding them now feels hopeless, but not holding them makes you fear they might suddenly surge one day... Stocks like ICBC, ABC, and BOC are now in a low-volatility, stagnant zone. Only CMB is seeing significant movement, having dropped almost 3% in the past two days, dragging my mood down with it. As for Seres, with new energy being so weak, you can't hold on without some faith. My mindset is a bit detached lately; I've mostly just been staring at my account, trying to get by without cutting losses or averaging down. 😥

I checked my account today, and only $GOLDWIND(02208.HK) still gives a bit of hope. Wind power is really strong, and the environmental protection sector has been the market's main theme recently. Unfortunately, my position is too small. Sectors like digitalization, such as $DEEPEXI TECH(01384.HK), are exhausting whenever they pull back...

$WUXI BIO(02269.HK) and $JIANGXI COPPER(00358.HK) continue to lie flat and play dead. Holding these traditional and thematic stocks now feels like constantly mocking myself for 'just running along' while being unwilling to cut losses. I don't even feel like eating barbecue anymore.

Bitcoin miners are really having another moment of euphoria. $Cipher Digital(CIFR.US) $IREN(IREN.US) $Mara(MARA.US) $CleanSpark(CLSK.US) are collectively showing their strength today—who remembers the washout from two weeks ago when they're all surging? $Coinbase(COIN.US) is also wobbling its way up slowly.

In this market, those who missed the boat can only watch the excitement silently in the group chat, while those heavily invested fear a pullback. The unlucky ones are probably those who just got shaken out a couple of days ago.

As the saying goes, a day in the crypto world is like a year in the human world. This is truly not a place for the faint of heart to make money.

Recently, gold stocks have been a bit tangled. A few old gold mines can still bounce a bit ($LAOPU GOLD(06181.HK) even surged so high today). $ZIJIN MINING(02899.HK) and $CHIFENG GOLD(06693.HK) are also in a grinding state. It was said they would ride the rhythm of gold prices for a wave of excitement, but they slowly ground to sleep. As for lithium, $GANFENGLITHIUM(01772.HK) is even worse, falling and falling until it's almost numb. Going long on gold and lithium these days is almost like spiritual practice, both testing your mentality. Honestly, occasionally you can't help but want to adjust positions, but when you look back, it seems gold is still shining brightly, so you can only continue with a Zen-like attitude, sipping tea and enduring slowly.

Watching $RUIDA FUTURES(002961.SZ) and $FIT HON TENG(06088.HK) both falling today, my feelings are a bit mixed. Consumer electronics + auto parts, I always thought they were at least solid demand, but seeing both weaken together is really hard to guard against. Every time I think about adding some positions on the left side, when it drops back down, I start doubting myself again. I'm starting to wonder if I'm just incompatible with this sector, the market sentiment... looks like it's going to be a grind again, whatever.

Today is truly heaven or hell for leverage players and sentiment traders (you choose). $Direxion FTSE China Bull 3X(YINN.US) and $Direxion Daily Korea Bull 3x Shares ETF(KORU.US) gave me a direct blow, especially $Direxion Daily Korea Bull 3x Shares ETF(KORU.US), -7% is just helpless. $Direxion FTSE China Bear 3X(YANG.US) shot up in a counter move, ruthlessly. On the internet side, $Krne Csi China Internet(KWEB.US) continues to decline slowly, looking at Alibaba and Tencent, I can only comfort myself with "value investing requires patience." Recently, this market is quite frustrating whether you go long or short, holding ETFs also depends on luck, observation + Buddha mode is on... Is everyone still alive?