ひかりちゃん

AI keeps shouting about power shortages every day, and before the power even arrives, it has already hyped up the attention on $Global X Uranium(URA.US) and $Select Sect Spdr Util(XLU.US) — the endgame of selling shovels is selling electricity, which is absurd but seems to make some sense.

$MARKETINGFORCE(02556.HK), $Zoom Communications(ZM.US), $Zscaler(ZS.US), $MongoDB(MDB.US), $Veeva Systems -CL(VEEV.US), $Fiserv, Inc.(FISV.US) From marketing cloud to meetings to databases to payments, it's all covered. The SaaS sector has been brought up again recently, and once you attach AI to it, the valuation story becomes easy to tell. It's just that translating that into actual revenue still has to wait 😪

$NCI(01336.HK) and $CHINA LIFE(02628.HK) are slowly recovering their policy values, $BRIGHT SMART(01428.HK) is benefiting from the trading volume of Hong Kong stocks, and $YUNFENG FIN(00376.HK) is about licenses plus ecosystem — the financial sector's game seems to be reshuffling its cards recently🤔

When AI is applied to specific businesses, $MARKETINGFORCE(02556.HK) handles marketing, $INSPUR DIGI ENT(00596.HK) provides enterprise services, $BigBear.ai(BBAI.US) and $Zeta Global(ZETA.US) tackle data, while $Quantinuum(QNT.US) even wants to leapfrog into quantum computing. The stories keep getting bigger; it's all about who can generate real profits first. 🤔

$LINK REIT(00823.HK) collects rent from shopping malls, and $Realty Income MD(O.US) distributes money to shareholders monthly. The old business of collecting rent is steadily guarded by people on both sides of Hong Kong and the US.

Whenever geopolitical tensions rise, attention on the defense and aerospace sector increases, and names like $RTX(RTX.US), $GE Aerospace(GE.US), $ViaSat(VSAT.US), and $CIRRUS(02507.HK) always come to mind.

$SMOORE INTL(06969.HK), $BONJOUR HOLD(00653.HK), $GUOXIA TECH(02655.HK) These few small-cap Hong Kong stocks have small market caps but significant volatility. They're usually quiet but easily ignited by any news. Play with a small position. 🙈

$Cadence Design(CDNS.US)'s EDA is an indispensable tool for chip design, $Photronics(PLAB.US) makes photomasks, $indie Semiconductor(INDI.US) bets on automotive chips, $Atomera(ATOM.US) sells new semiconductor materials—when AI chips are hot, upstream tool sellers also benefit.

Bond ETFs performed flat today. The short-term treasury ETF SGOV was completely stable with no change, while the long-term treasury ETF TLT fell 0.6%😔.

Regarding the direction of the yield spread between the short and long ends, the short end is basically anchored by Fed policy and barely moves, while the long end experiences slight fluctuations based on market adjustments to economic expectations.

The limited drop in TLT indicates that today's shift in interest rate expectations is hawkish in direction but limited in intensity.

$GraniteShares 2x Long INTC Daily ETF(INTW.US) performed flat against the backdrop of overall weakness in traditional semiconductor stocks; $T-Rex 2X Long HOOD Daily Target ETF(ROBN.US) benefited slightly from improved market sentiment; $Defiance Daily Target 2X Long AVGO ETF(AVGX.US) rose moderately, following the structural trend in AI chips; $Direxion Daily MU Bear 1X Shares(MUD.US) gained 2% today, corresponding to the weakness in Micron's stock price, indicating internal divergence within the semiconductor sector; $iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF(SGOV.US) remained unchanged, as risk appetite returned today, making defensive positions relatively less attractive.

IBM's ability to implement enterprise AI relies on the watsonx platform, with the conversion of To-B AI orders in 2026 being a key KPI; its PE of around 20x is within a reasonable range.

Tempus AI focuses on medical AI data analysis, with revenue growth exceeding 40% but still unprofitable; its valuation needs to be measured by the PS ratio, and a PS of around 15x indicates high market expectations.

C3 AI recently missed both earnings and revenue estimates and lowered its guidance, with its stock price falling over 20%; it is currently an underperformer, awaiting signals of a fundamental rebound next quarter.

$Oscar Health(OSCR.US)'s stock price rose 22% this week, currently around $14.75, with an IV of about 80% and a trailing P/S of approximately 0.23x. If the 2026 EOS guidance of $250-$450M is achieved, the room for valuation repricing is clear; otherwise, persistently higher-than-expected medical loss ratios will become the main downside risk.

VIXY has fallen again these past two days. The panic sentiment was directly crushed by the market, and now even going long on volatility has become an uphill battle. Every time I just think about adding a bit to my position to hedge against a bomb, it ends up being a money giveaway...

On April 6th, Kratos surged approximately 7.63% in a single day. The direct catalyst was Jefferies upgrading its rating from Hold to Buy with a target price of $85. Simultaneously disclosed news included: securing a $49M contract from the U.S. Navy for rocket motors, being selected as the prime contractor for the MACH-TB 2.0 hypersonic test program, and collaborating with Airbus to develop an unmanned collaborative combat aircraft for the German Air Force. Updated information reveals the company also won a U.S. Space Force contract for missile warning and tracking ground management integration, with a potential value of up to $447 million. This is the more long-term valuation support. 🎯

To be honest, keeping an eye on the recent wave of MP Materials and USA Rare Earth has been like a roller coaster ride. The rare earth/critical metals sector is completely driven by hype, changing by the minute, one day at a time. It's a bit surprising to see Critical Metals manage to rally against the trend, but I don't have the courage to cut my losses on those falling stocks in my portfolio... Lithium Americas' lithium has already flatlined, and Energy Fuels is still the same old story. It's supposed to be about seizing new energy opportunities, but in reality, I'm just being led around by the market. I don't want to move; I'll just treat it as a portfolio convalescence.

$EFUND GOLD MI ETF(02824.HK) has indeed been performing quite well recently, with a nearly 6% gain adding a bright spot. I originally intended it as a hedge, but unexpectedly made a small profit. Gold still has some substance to it, although I myself don't believe it can go much higher now, but it's still a bit of a relief 😸

Consumer stocks like China Tourism Group Duty Free and Mixue Group have seen a slight rebound recently, while on the other hand, Muyuan Foods and Nations Technologies continue to stagnate. It's a very mixed feeling 😰. Holding Muyuan, this hog cycle is truly discouraging, but even knowing it's in the bottom zone, I always hold back and dare not add to my position. Conversely, chasing the gains in the consumer sector is easy to buy at the peak. Thinking about it, 'Buddha-like observation' is the safest. Trading in and out will really teach you a lesson from the market 😔.

Silver and jewelry stocks have been eye-catching these past two days. China Silver Group is up +5.62%, Chow Sang Sang has also risen, and May Day Vision isn't bad either.

It feels like the market is looking for new stories again. Everyone is chasing themes and speculating on hot topics. Tech giants like Lenovo seem to have little presence in this market trend.

Insurance companies like China Taiping are more like invisible players in the market, with their ups and downs barely causing a ripple. Sometimes I really think it's not that I lack vision, but just bad luck—every time I switch to a hot topic, it cools down. I've just been going with the flow, and any floating profits in my holdings are purely by chance.

I don't even dare to look at the market today. China Nuclear International was almost halved, down nearly 13%, and Giant Biotech also fell sharply. Seriously, when can these main themes like new energy and medical aesthetics give us fewer of these scary opportunities? While thinking about bottom-fishing, before any rebound even happened, the account value directly shrank another chunk😪

RDW is seesawing near the middle Bollinger Band, with RSI around 55, direction unclear, MACD histogram narrowing, waiting for a breakout. SATL has directly broken through all moving average support, the bearish alignment is very clear, no need to bottom-fish at this level. SIDU recently showed consecutive low-volume consolidation, coupled with the 21-day moving average turning upward, which is a characteristic signal of a stage bottom, but liquidity is too poor, position size needs to be controlled. VELO's technical structure is relatively clean, holding above the 20-day moving average, RSI back above 50, can pay attention with a small position, entry at 3.1, stop loss at 2.8, target 3.8.

Opendoor has been hit hard by the market in the past two years, but low valuation itself is a catalyst for M&A. The logic for Zillow or some PE firm to step in during a housing market recovery cycle has always existed, with historical premiums for similar real estate tech M&A ranging between 30%-50%.

There are currently no obvious large abnormal orders for far-dated calls on the options chain, but their appearance would be an early signal.

The current GEX distribution is skewed negative, indicating significant capacity for price swings in both directions. It is recommended to use out-of-the-money calls with far expiration dates for low-cost M&A bets, with the total exposure controlled within 5% of the portfolio 🤔

The market taught me another lesson: small-cap stocks like Yimai Sunshine can crash in an instant, dropping nearly 10% in a day, my heart almost stopped 😰 On the other hand, East Buy directly reversed with over eight percentage points. I didn't add to my position, just watched the show, so I missed the excitement. As for the big financials like China Life, Ping An, and Agricultural Bank of China, their gains are just so-so, putting on a show of supporting the market, not aiming for big profits, just seeking mental stability. The rotation is so fast it's dizzying, I really wonder if you can still hold stocks based on fundamentals these days.

While A-shares are partying over there, looking back at these few Hong Kong stocks gives me mixed feelings. Bank of China's rise is as steady as a deposit rate, really has a retirement vibe; China Mobile's movement isn't big, still that elephant walking slowly. The most heartbreaking are the oil services companies and China Hong Kong Oil, directly getting slaughtered, that feeling of "buying at the peak" is back again. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings is up a bit, but container shipping is also very volatile now, I just don't dare to hold much 😪

These few stocks today are really good at setting the pace: $Lens(06613.HK) Another green day, morale in the tech manufacturing sector is almost worn out. $MIXUE GROUP(02097.HK) rose slightly, feels like the new tea beverage story isn't over yet, those who missed out are starting to get restless. $GANFENGLITHIUM(01772.HK) continues to hold on, no one dares to add to their position in the lithium sector casually. Only $QINGSONG HEALTH(02661.HK) is quite resilient, seems like the healthcare track really has capital support lately. $XUNCE(03317.HK) is just ridiculous, -18% is a direct bone-scraping cure, who's catching the falling knife at the bottom? Let's light a cigarette for everyone, Hong Kong stocks are just great at amplifying emotions.