韭菜日常

On days when you don't want to pick stocks, choose a basket. $Spdr Select Tech(XLK.US) steadily holds the major tech stocks, while $MicroSectors FANG+ Indx 3x Leveraged ETN(FNGU.US) is for the bold—same direction, two heart rates.

The more cutting-edge, the harder to price. Names like $Quantinuum(QNT.US), $Keel Infrastructure(KEEL.US), and $SharonAI(SHAZ.US) sound very 'long-term'—you're betting on the potential, so naturally, the volatility is high. It's a thrill ride.

The logic that AI is short of electricity has also heated up the power and materials sectors. $DATANG POWER(00991.HK) generates electricity, $SH ELECTRIC(02727.HK) makes equipment, $WOER(09981.HK)'s nuclear power materials, $SENIOR MATERIAL(06067.HK)'s battery separators — even the shovel sellers want a piece of the action 💪

$CTIHK(06055.HK), $Phillip Morris(PM.US), $Constellation Brands(STZ.US). The cash flow story of tobacco and alcohol is not new but never absent, and they always come to mind when it's time to rotate defensive positions.

$Mastercard(MA.US), $Fiserv, Inc.(FISV.US), $Morgan Stanley(MS.US) — payment networks plus investment banks, these are all large-cap stocks that feed on consumer and capital market activity. When risk appetite recovers, this type of financial infrastructure recovers first.

The components of $First Solar(FSLR.US) and the energy storage of $SIGENERGY(06656.HK). This old duo of photovoltaics and energy storage rises and falls with every shift in policy and demand winds, belonging to the batch that has to watch the faces of subsidies and installed capacity 🤔

$-1x Short VIX Futures ETF(SVIX.US) bets that the market won't panic, and $Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box ETF(BOXX.US) simply treats money as short-term bonds. The more directionless the market, the more people dig out these tools to use.

The quieter the market, the harder it is for $Pro Vix Shrt Fut(VIXY.US) and $Pro Ultr Cvix Shrt Futures(UVXY.US), while defensive plays like $Select Sect Spdr Util(XLU.US) quietly serve as ballast.

$HAIER SMARTHOME(06690.HK), $MGM CHINA(02282.HK), $DAMAI ENT(01060.HK), $CHINA LIT(00772.HK). Home appliances, gambling, performances, and online literature — each of these consumption and content sectors has its own recovery pace. Looking at this wave in the Hong Kong stock market, it's all about sentiment.

$Innodata(INOD.US) makes a living from AI data annotation, $Rezolve AI(RZLV.US) focuses on AI in retail, while $Snap(SNAP.US) and $Spotify(SPOT.US) hold massive user bases and are exploring ways to monetize with AI. Whoever can turn traffic into real cash first will see their valuation loosen up first.

NVIDIA's earnings clearly beat expectations, so why is the stock price still falling?

Jiangxi Copper rose 2.6%, in line with the copper price trend; Jiaxin International Resources rose 7.2% today, with small-cap stocks showing greater elasticity to copper prices; Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) rose 4.2%, with aluminum prices supported in a weak dollar environment; China Hongqiao Group, an aluminum manufacturer, rose 2.3%; China Daye Nonferrous Metals was almost flat. Within the sector, stocks with small free floats showed far greater elasticity today than large state-owned enterprises, reflecting capital's pursuit of high-beta exposure to non-ferrous metals.

Fiserv's payment processing infrastructure is robust, with revenue growth around 10% and a P/E ratio of about 20x;

Webull Securities is an internet brokerage targeting Chinese retail investors, benefiting from account openings in a high-volatility market environment;

Haitong Securities is also a small Chinese-concept brokerage;

PayPay is a leading payment company in Japan, with a leading market share but its valuation is affected by the yen exchange rate.

The four differ greatly in size and risk profile within the fintech sector: Fiserv is a core holding based on fundamental logic, while the other three are more speculative in nature.

$Schwab US Div Eq(SCHD.US) The defensive allocation value in a stagflation environment is being reassessed by institutions, with holdings primarily in high-dividend value stocks, showing significant outperformance relative to growth styles recently.

$iShares Russell 2000(IWM.US) represents small-cap sentiment, currently trading at a discount to the S&P 500 that is at a relatively high level in recent years. If expectations for Fed rate cuts heat up again, the rebound elasticity of small caps would be significantly higher than that of large caps.

$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US) and $NEOS Nasdaq-100(R) High Income ETF(QQQI.US) represent a pure index strategy and a covered call enhancement strategy, respectively. The latter generates higher option premium income in a high IV environment.

$Tema Space Innovators ETF(NASA.US) surged nearly 20% in a single week following its IPO, riding the Artemis II hype wave. Its holdings cover space-related assets like RKLB, ASTS, and PL, making it a low-barrier tool to participate in the space narrative.

$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) still hasn't shown much improvement today, continuing its slow decline by -0.25%. Holding through this rate hike cycle is really agonizing; it feels like holding your breath underwater.

The short-end $iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF(SGOV.US) is as steady as a rock, with impressive floating profits but no major fluctuations.

American Airlines closed up 5.55% yesterday, and United Airlines rose nearly 7.84% — the ceasefire between the US and Iran, coupled with expectations of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, caused oil prices to plummet, leading the market to reprice jet fuel costs.

American Airlines also benefited from a positive spillover effect from Delta's better-than-expected Q1 earnings report, breaking through its nearly one-month consolidation range on the same day. Short-covering pressure cannot be ignored — short interest accounts for 8.7% of the float, and Call option volume surged to 5 times the average on that day. UAL has stronger short-term momentum. Although TD Cowen lowered its target price to $120 in early April, Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating, indicating fundamental support remains.

The key observation points are whether the strait will close again and if negotiations break down, as the subsequent narrative on fuel costs could reverse quickly 😥

These few U.S. stocks today are just so-so: $Futu(FUTU.US) is so stable it's boring, $Kingsoft Cloud(KC.US) continues to lie flat, $Li Auto(LI.US) fluctuates slightly. The most exciting one is still $BABA 2x Long Daily ETF - GraniteShares(BABX.US), a gambler's plaything, occasionally checking it makes your heart race. Stocks like $Visionary(GV.US) are even harder for ordinary people to handle. Cutting losses is tough, but not cutting is even more distressing 😔

This wave of digital infrastructure is really exciting: MLGO directly surged +14% like a rocket, APLD rose a little bit, but CIFR is still falling. The most outrageous is UBXG, which dropped 40%. It's all a big reshuffle of AI concepts. A series of operations is not as good as relying on luck.

The market today was quite surreal. I thought gold would continue its strong performance, but Zhaojin Gold Industry dropped five points in one go. On the other hand, consumer stocks like Miniso Group managed to hold on, showing real resilience. The new energy sector's Longpan Technology continued to fall, while the tech stock Robosense didn't see much movement. Right now, it feels like the rotation is happening too fast. Those without conviction really can't hold on, and having too much conviction just gets you beaten up. Recently, it's been one slap after another, watching the market is giving me a sense of autistic despair 😪

Tech, blue-chips, and small caps all turned green (i.e., fell) today. QQQM, IVV, and IWM all plunged together—it's really hard to guard against. Everyone holding them understands the feeling of "the meat that was almost in your mouth flew away again." JEPI is still relatively firm, falling less. Friends holding SGOV can probably sleep soundly tonight. Sigh, it's only when the market switches between bull and bear that you realize how sweet cash is king and defensive strategies are. 😥

OKLO has been testing around 25 repeatedly in the past two days, with the 21-day moving average providing support from below. The Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, indicating a clear strong accumulation pattern. The distance between the MACD fast and slow lines is widening, and the momentum is not weak. Entry at 25.5, stop loss at 23.8, target at 30, risk-reward ratio about 1:2.6. LTBR's volume ratio showed a pulse-like spike three days ago, but the price didn't follow up afterwards, more like a test by major players. The moving average structure is bearish, so not participating for now. MP Materials has a solid foundation with its moving averages in a bullish alignment, and the RSI remains in the healthy range around 60. A recent pullback to the 50-day moving average is a good opportunity to buy on dips. Consider entry at 18.5, stop loss at 17.6, target at 22, ratio 1:3.9, offering high value for money 😸 NVA's trading volume is extremely low, the Bollinger Bands are extremely narrow, and the RSI is stuck around 45, neither rising nor falling. There might be a directional breakout in the short term, but entering now is betting on the direction. It's not recommended to intervene before a clear signal emerges.

$Chegg(CHGG.US) has been battered by ChatGPT, but its brand, user data, and content library still have residual value, making it a good target for a low-priced acquisition. Rumors of acquisition by Pearson or private equity funds have surfaced intermittently, with the historical average premium for similar edtech M&A ranging from 35% to 55%. Regulatory risk itself is low, but if Chinese capital gets involved, political variables could significantly lengthen the approval cycle. GEX has been negative over the past 90 days, and no significant large order anomalies have been observed in the options chain.

Long-term strategy: Hold out-of-the-money calls with a maturity of over 12 months, using a small position to bet on M&A or AI transformation catalysts, with cost control being the core 🤔

Recently, $Rolls-Royce(RYCEY.US) is worth focusing on ✈️. The moving averages are in a bullish alignment, the RSI is healthy around 60, and the volume ratio has been increasing recently.

$Vnet(VNET.US) is tied to the AI data center narrative, currently testing the support of the 50-day moving average.

$Echostar(SATS.US) and $Palladyne AI(PDYN.US) are experiencing high volatility.

$WeRide(WRD.US) is primarily driven by social media, with relatively high noise.

Staring at COSCO SHIPPING Energy's -5.5% drop today, honestly, it's a bit suffocating. Every time I think the adjustment is almost over, I get hit again. On the other hand, JD Logistics has been surprisingly resilient lately. Other JD-affiliated stocks like Health and Industrial have become stagnant—not rising much nor falling deeply, just showing little significant improvement. Actually, my account is quite stable now, and my mindset is the same as theirs—just lying low for now, waiting for the market to show its hand.

Today, the tech and semiconductor sectors have completely collapsed like this. $HUA HONG GRACE(01347.HK) and $SMIC(00981.HK) can't hold up either. $HORIZONROBOT-W(09660.HK) also plummeted in one go. I can only say the Hong Kong stock market is really numb from the fall.

I thought the semiconductor sector could hold on a bit, but the more I watched, the more panicked I got. Even $SANHUA(02050.HK) joined the decline. The capital really has no honor. Only $YOFC(06869.HK) managed to stay barely in the green. Looks like I need to be more 'Buddhist' (detached). Thinking from another angle, maybe everything is cheap chips now? Anyway, I'm already numb; I've trained my mentality.