复利进行时

The business of a cup of coffee and a cup of tea is fiercely competitive, with $Luckin Coffee(LKNCY.US), $Starbucks(SBUX.US), and $GUMING(01364.HK) all in the mix. The story is all in the store numbers, from price wars and store opening speed to penetrating lower-tier markets.

$Cadence Design(CDNS.US) handles EDA tools, $AXERA(00600.HK) makes edge-side AI chips, $Himax Tech(HIMX.US) deals with display drivers, $Formfactor(FORM.US) does testing, plus a $EFUND A SEMICON ETF(03486.HK) that wants to cover it all — the chip industry is a deep and murky pond 😵‍💫

$ANTA SPORTS(02020.HK)'s multi-brand matrix and $MAO GEPING(01318.HK)'s high-end domestic beauty products represent two paths for Chinese brands to move upmarket: one relies on acquisitions, the other on brand appeal. They are the face of Hong Kong's consumer stocks. 😸

Hong Kong stock financial heavyweights are the ballast type, $ABC(01288.HK), $CICC(03908.HK), $CITIC SEC(06030.HK), $LINK REIT(00823.HK). Banks, brokerages, plus REITs, they rise when the market warms up, and can rely on dividends and scale to weather volatility.

These old-school, heavyweight stocks in the Hong Kong market haven't been forgotten either. The conglomerate $CKH HOLDINGS(00001.HK), the investments of $LEGENDHOLDING(03396.HK), the real estate of $Sunac China(01918.HK), and the telecom business of $CHINA UNICOM(00762.HK) — each has its own ups and downs, belonging to the undervalued category that could potentially double🙃

For rides, use $DiDi(DIDIY.US); for grocery shopping, watch the livestream of $EAST BUY(01797.HK); for social media going global, rely on $NEWBORNTOWN(09911.HK); for medical appointments and registration, there's $160 HEALTH(02656.HK). China concept internet stocks have taken care of all the trivialities in life, but their popularity always fluctuates between hot and cold.

$HAITIAN FLAV(03288.HK), $YUM China(YUMC.US), $Diageo(DEO.US) — soy sauce, fast food, and imported spirits. The business of food and drink can weather economic cycles, with less dramatic price swings. These are the kind of stocks that require patience.

Theme ETFs are all about imagination. $Procure Space ETF(UFO.US), $IShares Ethereum Trust ETF(ETHA.US), $A CSOP HSCEICC(02802.HK), $XL2 BOS CHINEXT(07234.HK) — from space to crypto to Hong Kong/China leverage, you can find the right tool to bet on whichever trend you fancy.

$NU Holdings(NU.US) holds the top spot in Latin America's digital banking market, $Webull(BULL.US) operates as a retail broker, telling stories of emerging markets and young retail investors. As long as the user base keeps growing, there will be believers.

Both hedging and inverse hedging strategies are on the table. Which one to use, $SPDR Gold Minishares(GLDM.US), $Pro Vix Shrt Fut(VIXY.US), $Pro Ultr Cvix Shrt Futures(UVXY.US), $Microsectors Gold Miners -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN(GDXD.US), or $MicroSectors™ Gold -3X Inverse Lvrgd ETN(DULL.US), depends entirely on which narrative you believe more in these two weeks.

Strategic ETFs diverged today 😔

The MSTU MicroStrategy 2x leveraged ETF rose 7.7%, following MSTR's gain today, indicating the positive elasticity towards Bitcoin remains;

OKLL rose 2.7% today;

The SCHD US high-dividend ETF was almost flat. High-dividend strategies logically benefit when interest rate cut expectations heat up, but the movement wasn't obvious today.

ALLW was basically flat.

Vistra fell slightly by 0.63%, supported by expectations of AI data center power demand but saw a minor pullback today along with the energy sector; Venture Global LNG company trended weaker; Battalion Oil dropped 1.5%, as the sensitivity of small-cap oil stocks to oil prices amplified the impact of recent oil price weakness.

Vistra's data center power supply logic is fundamentally different from pure oil and gas companies. While it's bundled within the energy sector, its medium-term narrative should be viewed separately, with the power track receiving more attention from the current AI infrastructure theme.

$EOS Energy Enterprises(EOSE.US) This wave directly surged nearly 30%;

Pfizer has been dipping again recently, the big pharma brother shows no sign of improvement;

The small-cap stock $Onconetix(ONCO.US) inexplicably surged again, and $Nine Energy(NINE.US) couldn't hold up either 😪

$American Express(AXP.US) This gain feels quite steady, $Paypal(PYPL.US) PayPal is dragging its feet again, when can it get fired up and have another run like before? $Interactive Brokers(IBKR.US) and $UP Fintech(TIGR.US) aren't moving much, guess we just have to be chill when there's no hot topic 😔

Yesterday I was still struggling over whether to hold through the pullback of IONQ and RXRX, and then I turned around and saw AGPU directly take off and double 😰

Tech small-cap stocks are just like this. Normally they drop so much you question your life choices, then suddenly a big green candle comes along and you regret not going all in.

LAES and AGPU are also moving at a pace that's hard to keep up with. Short-term trading is really exciting.

Commodities like crude oil and copper have really been frustrating lately: BNO, UCO, and COPX have all been trending downwards, and it feels like they haven't bottomed out yet. 😰 The most infuriating part is the gold mining short ETFs DUST and GDXD. As soon as gold prices stabilize a bit, these short positions just collapse. Today was another -6% cliff-diving level... Real gold and silver can't withstand the volatility, let alone leveraged ETFs. One second you're making money like a cheat code, the next you're getting hammered into the ground.

Silicon Xin Group, it managed to edge up another 3 points today, truly the lurking king of small-cap stocks. It's been ignored for so long, and occasionally pops up with a move of unknown origin. Honestly, this kind of stock can trade sideways all day, making you angry, and when it rises, you can't help but wonder if you should chase it, fearing you'll catch a falling knife. The Hong Kong stock market is so quiet. Occasionally seeing such unusual activity, besides sighing, it's better to just watch. I don't dare to jump in easily, not knowing when it will surface next time 😰

$PDD(PDD.US) You say it's bad, but Pinduoduo and Temu still have a massive scale and strong user loyalty. You say it's stable, but as soon as the earnings report comes out, the market starts picking it apart. PDD just released its latest quarterly results on March 25th: Q4 revenue was 123.9 billion yuan, slightly lower than the market expectation of 124.4 billion yuan; net profit was 24.5 billion yuan, down about 11% year-over-year; adjusted earnings per ADS were 17.69 yuan, also below expectations. The company itself mentioned that domestic competition is getting more intense, and overseas it still faces uncertainties like taxes and compliance.

To put it bluntly, PDD is now very much like this: its core business is strong, but the market is more concerned about whether it can keep running in the future. Temu's overseas growth is still there, but regulatory pressure is also increasingly on the table. Domestically, Pinduoduo is still the king of low prices, but at the end of the day, the low-price business model can easily see profits eroded by subsidies and competition.

So my take on PDD is very down-to-earth:

It's not the kind of stock that gets your blood pumping. Instead, it's more like a large-cap stock that 'looks cheap but actually makes you uneasy inside.'

Bulls will focus on its scale, cash flow, and globalization. The cautious will fear slowing growth coupled with a volatile external environment. Anyway, my own conclusion is: You can keep an eye on PDD stock, but don't automatically project its 'past glory' onto the future. As it is now, it's more like a top student who's starting to get picked on by the whole class.

Today's market was really hard to describe in a few words: Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric Company Limited directly gave me a -9%, Jiaxin International Resources also plunged. It was really a beating. I feel like these small-cap stocks have completely failed to hold up recently. Selling isn't an option, holding is painful, so I can only grit my teeth and keep watching. As the old saying goes, faith in one hand, stop-loss in the other. I'm really tired of selling, now I've become completely zen about it 😪

$CHIFENG GOLD(06693.HK) Today's -7% drop really diluted my faith in it. The gold concept was quite strong not long ago, who would have thought I'd get trapped buying at the peak before I could even taste any profits. I know gold is a safe haven, but this pullback feels like it's being held up purely by sentiment. While watching the market, I couldn't help but mutter "feel sorry for myself". Honestly, with a drop of almost 8 points in a single day, I'm starting to consider cutting losses on my short-term positions. Sigh, gold has been a roller coaster this year too 😰

$EAST BUY(01797.HK) is up again. The content e-commerce and live-streaming sales track really is a little expert at turning things around. Every time I hesitate about averaging down, it gives me a beating to show me, and missing out really makes my blood boil. Why does it feel like I'm always half a beat behind when catching rebounds or making up for short-term trades? Another entry on the list of human nature cultivation.

Chips, data centers, these stocks just won't take a break, $Arm(ARM.US), $Credo Tech(CRDO.US), $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US), $Astera Labs(ALAB.US), just keep pushing higher.

Every time I think they've risen enough and should take a breather, the main logic just keeps coming in waves. The feeling of missing out is a bit explosive, wanting to chase but afraid of buying at the peak and getting stuck, might as well just hold my coins and watch the show.

But strangely enough, this wave $Synopsys(SNPS.US) hasn't really followed, making me doubt if I should change my approach…

In the current market, when it comes down to it, sentiment is even stronger than logic.

$GIGADEVICE(03986.HK) went straight up +5% today. Who still remembers the version of themselves that sold at a loss last month? With tech stocks moving at this pace, the moment the semiconductor sector gains momentum, you can instantly feel the momentum of the chips flying. Even though you know it might just be a sector rebound, missing out on it is genuinely frustrating. Brothers who still have faith in it are probably filled with regret in their dreams tonight.

Today, I've been watching $MIXUE GROUP(02097.HK), $Li Auto(LI.US), $CATL(03750.HK) and the like. It's really a bit draining. Mixue held up relatively firm, but the new energy sector is in a state of despair. Li Auto, CATL, and $BIREN TECH(06082.HK) all took a dive, especially $DZUG(600635.SH) with that -9% drop—truly impressive. Those holding positions can only console themselves that the market won't fall forever. Tech, auto, and battery sectors are dragging each other down in a continuous decline. It feels like the market is constantly testing everyone's conviction. For short-term trading, I really want to cut losses, but seeing it drop this much makes me reluctant to sell at a loss. I guess I'll just lie flat and wait for the next trend to emerge.

Lately, I've been getting a headache just looking at anyone. $Sea(SE.US) skidded, completely shattering my confidence in setting stop-losses, another -16%. Can't the internet giants these days stop performing their death-defying stunts? $Shopify (SHOP.US) just pokes its head up hesitantly, $Trip.com(TCOM.US) is clinging to life with gusto, while looking at $Luckin Coffee(LKNCY.US) and $UP Fintech(TIGR.US) makes me feel zen, my mindset has learned to go with the flow. Is it only stories like $SaaS Related(20039.HK) that can still hold up? Getting on any other sector feels like a rollercoaster ride, thrills for free.