人间半盏茶

$3SBIO(01530.HK) rose by four percentage points, and $BRAINAURORA-B(06681.HK) also rose by four percentage points. Sentiment for innovative drugs and digital therapy in the Hong Kong stock market is quite good; however, the major pharmaceutical company in the US stock market, $Merck(MRK.US), fell by two to three percentage points instead. This round of Hong Kong stock Biotech is recovering along with the story of risk appetite and AI healthcare, while US major pharmaceutical companies are being weighed down by old issues of medical insurance and pipelines. Both are in the pharmaceutical sector, but small-cap stocks in Hong Kong are speculating on elasticity, while heavyweight stocks in the US are bearing the pressure😔

$JOINN(06127.HK) rose over 7%, leading the gains. CROs are moving in line with expectations of a recovery in biotech investment and financing. $WUXI BIO(02269.HK), $INNOVENT BIO(01801.HK), and $AKESO(09926.HK) all saw slight gains, while $CSPC PHARMA(01093.HK) and $SBP GROUP(01177.HK) edged lower. Hong Kong's biotech and CXO sectors were generally strong today, with Zhaoyan showing more resilience than the others. The recovery in CXO has always been expectations first, orders later. Is this wave a real confirmation of an inflection point, or just another bout of sentiment running ahead? For now, I'm treating it as a sentiment recovery—until investment and financing data show continuous improvement, earnings realization will have to wait another two quarters.

$Unitedhealth(UNH.US) dipped slightly, and $Health Care Select Sector SPDR(XLV.US) is also trading sideways and weak. The entire sector has entered a quiet period before the earnings report 😷

$Unitedhealth(UNH.US) The key point of this earnings report is not EPS, but the medical cost ratio. The valuation collapse caused by previous cost control issues was only halfway repaired before stopping. Management must provide evidence this time that costs have peaked.

For a stock whose recovery logic has only played out halfway, should we bet on the earnings report or wait for confirmation? I lean towards waiting — an insurance company's cost inflection point is never confirmed in just one quarter. Trading the first day's gain for certainty is a good deal.

$Tempus AI(TEM.US) rose by over seven percentage points, showing strong momentum. The AI medical data sector has seen a lot of catalysts recently—obtaining FDA approval for tumor detection, deepening cooperation with Bristol-Myers Squibb, and the Q2 earnings report is about to be released. $Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US) dipped slightly, while $Direxion S&P Biotech Bull 3X(LABU.US) rose a bit. Overall sentiment in the biotech sector is leaning warm.

The integration of healthcare and AI is one of the most imaginative directions this year. $Tempus AI(TEM.US) focuses multimodal data on high-value indications like oncology and neurology, and its revenue path is gradually becoming clear. This rally is solidly supported by events, not just hype.

$Tempus AI(TEM.US) has dropped nearly five points, $Recursion Pharmaceuticals(RXRX.US) has dropped over three points. These two AI biotech stocks saw significant intraday declines, and the market has become more cautious about the valuation of 'AI-accelerated drug discovery' for another round. It's still in the validation phase before data comes out.

$Crinetics Pharmaceuticals(CRNX.US) barely moved, with no new updates on pipeline progress. $WUXI APPTEC(02359.HK) has a different logic, rising a little under two points. As a CXO 'shovel seller,' it follows global R&D outsourcing demand, which is a different story from biotechs betting on a single pipeline. Among this batch, the ones with real cash flow certainty are still like WuXi AppTec.

$Gilead Sciences(GILD.US) rose over five percentage points, leading the gains among this batch of large pharmaceutical companies; $Eli Lilly(LLY.US) and $Unitedhealth(UNH.US) rose two to three points, while $Merck(MRK.US) saw a slight increase. On the day when AI stocks in the tech sector were selling off, money fled to safe havens with strong certainty like large-cap pharma stocks — $Eli Lilly(LLY.US) has the long-term logic of weight-loss drugs and oncology pipelines, and $Unitedhealth(UNH.US) is stabilized by cash flow from the Medicare side. On days like this, the stability of big pharma is more valuable than anything else 😎

$Intuitive Surgical(ISRG.US) rose by six percentage points, the leading surgical robotics company is moving quite well in this wave; $Johnson & Johnson(JNJ.US) also rose by three to four percentage points, considered stable among the large-cap healthcare stocks.

VIX is suppressed at a low level, capital is moving towards healthcare leaders with strong certainty. This kind of large-cap stock doesn't need any specific catalyst; it can gradually move upwards by following the sector's dual attributes of defense and growth, holding it feels reassuring 😎

$AKESO(09926.HK), $3SBIO(01530.HK) have both risen by seven to eight percentage points, and $WUXI BIO(02269.HK), $WUXI APPTEC(02359.HK) have also followed higher, with Hong Kong-listed innovative drug stocks collectively rebounding in this wave. The adjustment to the Stock Connect Southbound list has included a batch of innovative drugs and CXO companies, coupled with the ongoing large license-out deals, mainland capital is chasing these stocks with relatively small free-floats. Once sector sentiment is ignited, innovative drugs and CXO move together, this wave looks more like a resonance between capital flows and fundamentals 😀

$Eli Lilly(LLY.US), $Abbvie(ABBV.US) basically didn't move, $Merck(MRK.US) fell slightly by two points—big pharma companies are just lying low and steady during market volatility, with very little fluctuation when there's no earnings reports or data catalysts. $Unitedhealth(UNH.US) has a different logic, rising by more than two points. There's been a recovery in policy sentiment around the health insurance sector recently, which is a different driver from big pharma. The certainty of defense and dividends is what people hold big pharma for, so the moves aren't intense; $Unitedhealth(UNH.US), on the other hand, is more sensitive to the direction of health insurance policy 🤔

$Merck(MRK.US) rose about four points, $Unitedhealth(UNH.US) also gained slightly. The large-cap pharmaceutical and healthcare stocks are relatively strong. $Moderna(MRNA.US) and $Eloxx Pharmaceuticals(ELOX.US) both fell slightly, $3SBIO(01530.HK) basically didn't move. The innovative drug and small-cap biotech sectors are relatively weak.

Even within the same healthcare sector, large pharmaceutical companies and health insurers with stable cash flow and low valuations are being bought as defensive assets during market volatility, while small-cap biotechs lacking catalysts can only follow sentiment down. Large caps are stable, small caps are weak😔

$METIS TECHBIO-P(07666.HK) fell five or six points, and it fell more among the unprofitable small-cap AI pharmaceutical stocks; on the other hand, $LONGBIO-B(01779.HK) rose three or four points, $REMEGEN(09995.HK) rose slightly, $CSPC PHARMA(01093.HK) fell slightly. This batch of Hong Kong stock innovative drug stocks is moving very divergently. Capital seems to be switching within the innovative drug sector—from long-term narratives like AI pharmaceuticals to targets like Rongchang and Tianchen that have clinical progress or commercialization expectations. Targets with closer catalysts are more favored, while pure narrative ones are being abandoned first. Do you think this round of correction in AI pharmaceuticals has bottomed out?

$Regencell Bioscience(RGC.US) rose five to six points, which is quite eye-catching. $Moderna(MRNA.US) also rose two to three points. Biopharmaceuticals were a rare bright spot on a down day. $HENGRUI PHARMA(01276.HK), $Intuitive Surgical(ISRG.US), and $Recursion Pharmaceuticals(RXRX.US) basically didn't move much 😸

Capital is shifting from high-beta chips to more defensive pharmaceuticals. Large pharmaceutical and medical device companies are holding steady, while small-cap stocks with clinical catalyst expectations can still bounce up a bit.

Biopharmaceuticals were strong overall today, with two main themes. $Abbvie(ABBV.US) rose six points, having just announced the acquisition of Apogee for approximately $10.9 billion in cash at $135.11 per share, bolstering its next-generation immunology and inflammation pipeline. The market recognized this deal and reacted positively. $METIS TECHBIO-P(07666.HK) also rose six points, continuing the strong momentum since its IPO for this AI drug delivery Hong Kong-listed secondary new stock.

$Johnson & Johnson(JNJ.US) and $WUXI BIO(02269.HK) saw slight gains. The $SPDR S&P Biotech(XBI.US) rose three to four points, with overall sector sentiment leaning warm. Clinical-stage micro-cap stocks like $Eloxx Pharmaceuticals(ELOX.US) saw minor declines. Large pharmaceutical companies are using acquisitions to buy pipelines, and AI drug discovery is telling a new story. There was capital willing to flow into both of these lines in biopharma today.

$Legend Biotech(LEGN.US) plummeted by more than ten percentage points. The direct cause was a dilutive share placement—$226 million, 7.7 million ADS, priced at $29.35, significantly below the previous day's close. When such a discounted placement is announced, existing shareholders' first reaction is to vote with their feet.

Carvykti sales are actually still ramping up, and the fundamentals are not bad. However, the short-term dilution pressure outweighed the performance results, and it coincided with existing short positions, amplifying the decline. This kind of drop caused by financing rather than operations usually recovers after the sentiment is digested.

$Intuitive Surgical(ISRG.US), $Recursion Pharmaceuticals(RXRX.US), and $HJ SCIENCE-B(06132.HK) are all lying flat and not moving, just being dull all day long 🤔

The big medical device stocks have no catalyst and are too lazy to move. $Recursion Pharmaceuticals(RXRX.US) is waiting for AI-driven data to come out. Small-cap Biotech stocks like $HJ SCIENCE-B(06132.HK), stuck at a clinical milestone, can only wait idly even more—it feels stifling. It's likely to stay this way until the next milestone is reached.

$Tango Therapeutics(TNGX.US) surged +53% today, driven by two catalysts stacked together: renewed attention on early-stage data from its pancreatic cancer pipeline, followed by the company's announcement of a $500 million secondary offering.

In the small-cap biotech space, this combination of 'positive data plus large financing' is quite delicate—the data ignites sentiment, the financing secures cash, pushing the stock price up short-term. However, the gap between the dilution from the offering and the pipeline's actual delivery is the key to mid-term valuation. This move looks more like an emotion-driven spike, with the real clinical readout still far away.

$Intellia Therap(NTLA.US) surged over 13%, driven by strong Phase 3 data for hereditary angioedema, which is expected to facilitate a rolling BLA submission. The potential U.S. launch is targeting the first half of 2027. Q1 revenue of $15 million also exceeded expectations, with net losses narrowing year-over-year. Cathie Wood's ARK bought 214,000 shares in a single day.

What the gene editing sector currently lacks is the "delivery of clinical milestones." This time, the combination of strong Phase 3 data, regulatory progress, and institutional buying provides fundamental support for the sharp rise. The next focus will be on the review timeline for the BLA.

Brain Regeneration Technology rose by two to three points, Intuitive Surgical edged up slightly; the medical device and small-cap biotech sectors showed some independent momentum. Pfizer was basically flat, while Hengrui Medicine and Kangfang Biotech both fell by two to three points. The innovative drug sector as a whole was relatively weak😔

On days when the broader market is volatile, the pharmaceutical sector is also stratified: surgical robots and small-cap stocks with clinical catalysts each have their own stories, while traditional pharma companies and Hong Kong-listed innovative drug stocks are still waiting for the outcome of medical insurance negotiations and data releases. Without catalysts, they can only drift along with the broader market.

Hong Kong stock innovative drug stocks diverged today: Insilico Medicine and WuXi AppTec both rose slightly, AI drug discovery and CXO followed sentiment with a small rebound; RemeGen fell slightly, TenNor Therapeutics dropped nearly five points, weaker.

Also in the innovative drug sector, CXO companies with platforms and orders held steady, while small-cap Biotechs with pure pipelines are still worried about cash flow and data.

Is this divergence capital starting to pick targets with self-sustaining capabilities, or is it just small caps being mispriced due to poor liquidity? It looks more like the former—in an uncertain environment, the market is becoming increasingly harsh on pure pipeline companies with no revenue.

Zhongbei Energy fell by more than eight points. China concept small-cap stocks + energy, the valuation/fundamental signals are very weak, but the market is still pushing it back and forth. If you hold this kind of stock, the question is not 'whether you are bullish or not' but 'when to liquidate'—how do you handle small-cap stocks with no bright spots in their fundamentals, by technical stop-loss or by time stop-loss?

Visa, PayPal, Lemonade, and the Fundrise Innovation Fund all fell slightly—payments, digital insurance, and private equity ETFs faced minor simultaneous pressure. There wasn't much independent catalyst for the fintech sector today; it just followed the broader market's rhythm.🙃

21Vianet rose over four points, Hong Kong stock IDC continues to strengthen under the expectation of AI computing power localization; HPE basically didn't move — also related to AI servers/computing power, 21Vianet's elasticity is much greater than HPE's, the low valuation starting point of Hong Kong stock IDC is still being repriced👀

The Hong Kong stock market's innovative drug sector as a whole lacks new catalysts and is showing weakness: Innovent Biologics rose slightly today, BeiGene was basically flat, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group fell slightly, and Junshi Biosciences also declined; RemeGen fell more than 4%, making it the biggest decliner today, possibly due to profit-taking from previous accumulated gains.

LABU fell 0.5%, VIXY fell 3.3%. The biotechnology index was basically flat today, with some individual stocks surging but unable to lift the overall index, and the decay from the 3x ETF is eating away; on the VIXY side, the VIX is around 19, not rising further, and the decay for those holding long VIX positions is rapid today.