玖玖er

$McDonald's(MCD.US) basically didn't move, $MIXUE GROUP(02097.HK) rose slightly. Both the US fast-food stocks and the Hong Kong new tea beverage stocks were very flat today. There haven't been any major catalysts in the dining sector recently, just grinding along with their respective market sentiment. After the IPO subscription hype passed, Mixue has also returned to quiet.

$QIYUNSHAN FOOD(02797.HK) dropped -40% on its second day of listing. The first southern sour jujube stock, which surged +205% on its debut, has completed a year's worth of roller coaster in just two days😵‍💫

The old script for Hong Kong small-cap IPOs: oversubscribed 1600 times, frenzied speculation on the first day, and a stampede on the second. A fundraising pool of just over 100 million simply can't handle the in-and-out flow of speculative capital. Southern sour jujube cake brings in 300 million in annual revenue and 50 million in profit—it's a solid small business, but has little to do with the peak market cap of 2.4 billion inflated by speculation.

At this current level, should we wait for it to fall back near the HK$8 issue price before reconsidering, or blacklist it from now on? I choose the former to observe—the fundamentals are real, it's just sentiment that's expensive.

$Chagee(CHA.US) fell more than three points, and $LAOPU GOLD(06181.HK) rose more than two points. Both are very popular new consumer Chinese concept stocks in the past two years, but one is digesting growth expectations, while the other is enjoying a premium. Their pricing logic is completely different—$Chagee(CHA.US) is still in a stage where its store expansion and franchise model are being repeatedly scrutinized, while $LAOPU GOLD(06181.HK) is more like a brand premium for high-end gold jewelry, supported by the story of high gold prices and consumption upgrades 😀

$LIULIUMEI(06658.HK) fell by more than six percentage points, and $MIXUE GROUP(02097.HK) fell by more than four percentage points. These two new consumption secondary listings in Hong Kong stocks have taken a relatively heavy hit in this wave 😔

$LIULIUMEI(06658.HK) once doubled on its first day of listing and was briefly hyped into a hot concept. Now that sentiment has retreated, the premium for secondary listings is being given back quickly. $MIXUE GROUP(02097.HK), as a leader in the new tea beverage sector, is relatively more solid, but it also can't withstand the overall sell-off. After this wave of speculation in new consumption secondary listings cools down, the process of valuation returning to fundamentals will still take some time to grind.

$Domino's(DPZ.US) and $HAIDILAO(06862.HK) both rose more than two percentage points today, sentiment in the restaurant chain sector is still okay; $Chagee(CHA.US) dipped slightly, the market is still weighing the competition and store expansion pace in the new tea drink segment. $MUYUAN(02714.HK) fell nearly four percentage points, the logic is different from the previous few stocks, the hog cycle is being discussed again—hog prices and capacity reduction are its main drivers, it's not the same story as these restaurant companies.

$HQVT(01392.HK) rose five points, $WENGE AI(01956.HK) edged up slightly. These two Hong Kong-listed AI software secondary new stocks are relatively strong. $KINGSOFT(03888.HK) dipped slightly, while $JUFEEL(08611.HK), a penny stock, rose over five points, but it's essentially a liquidity game. The batch of Hong Kong-listed AI software stocks showed some divergence today, with secondary new stocks and small-cap stocks having greater elasticity and volatility. The price movements of such stocks are more driven by shareholding structure and market sentiment. The rise of $HQVT(01392.HK) and $WENGE AI(01956.HK) also depends on whether subsequent commercialization can keep up. Purely theme-driven rallies typically lack strong sustainability.

$Luckin Coffee(LKNCY.US) rose over seven percentage points, driven by solid progress like New York store expansion and the launch of smart roasting factories; on the same day, $MIXUE GROUP(02097.HK) and $Chagee(CHA.US) both fell six to eight percentage points.

All are in the new tea beverage and coffee track, why can $Luckin Coffee(LKNCY.US) stand out and strengthen independently, while the other two are getting their valuations slashed? I lean towards the difference between overseas execution and domestic involution — $Luckin Coffee(LKNCY.US)'s growth story is overseas, while $MIXUE GROUP(02097.HK) and $Chagee(CHA.US) are still trapped in domestic market saturation and price wars. This divergence is highly likely to continue in the short term. When do you think the overseas story for $MIXUE GROUP(02097.HK) and others will kick in?

$NAYUKI(02150.HK) rose five points, $Domino's(DPZ.US) rose two points. Restaurant chains in both China and the US showed slight strength today. The new tea beverage segment has greater elasticity following the recovery in consumer sentiment, while the mature pizza chain is more stable. The key points in the restaurant sector still lie in same-store sales and the pace of store openings. Sentiment repair can bring short-term rebounds, but to establish a trend, it still depends on whether fundamental data can keep up 😀

$Crocs(CROX.US) has risen nearly three percentage points. The demand and channels for Crocs have been relatively stable recently, outperforming the other two small consumer stocks; $Beyond Meat(BYND.US) and $Chagee(CHA.US) have barely moved. The plant-based meat sector has been struggling for the past couple of years, with no improvement in demand or profitability, still waiting for demand to recover; $Chagee(CHA.US), as a relatively new tea beverage listing, is still slowly digesting the post-IPO hype. The situation varies among small consumer stocks. $Crocs(CROX.US) is supported by fundamentals, while the other two are each waiting for their own turning points.

$McDonald's(MCD.US) is stuck there not moving, while $MIXUE GROUP(02097.HK) fell over seven percentage points. Both are in the restaurant chain business, but the Hong Kong and US markets are playing out completely different scripts today — $McDonald's(MCD.US) is a stabilizer in the broad consumer sector, with funds rotating out when VIX converges; $MIXUE GROUP(02097.HK) is a new consumer stock in Hong Kong experiencing a pullback. It has already risen a lot in H1 2026 and is starting to digest gains at this level.

Is it $McDonald's(MCD.US) entering "reverse rotation" selling pressure, or $MIXUE GROUP(02097.HK) entering a new cycle of valuation digestion? It looks more like the latter — $MIXUE GROUP(02097.HK) is already at 40x PE, a huge gap compared to the 20x valuations of Haidilao and Jiulaojiu, and will likely continue grinding for the next six months.

$Draftkings(DKNG.US) surged +11.26%, catalyzed by the official launch of its own prediction market exchange DKeX.

Previously, since December, the prediction business had been operating on the CME derivatives track. Now, by building the entire pipeline in-house, it means contract design, operational economics, and customer service are fully controlled by themselves.

Annualized trading volume has already reached the $3.4B level; Citizens analysts raised the target price from $34 to $36 that day. Since the beginning of this year, this stock has fallen by over 30%. The launch of DKeX provides a thematic basis for a second growth curve in the second half of the year.

$Chagee(CHA.US) and $LIULIUMEI(06658.HK) both rose by two to three percentage points. Sentiment for new Chinese concept stocks in sectors like new tea beverages and snacks has warmed up a bit recently. The pressure from tariffs and consumption data has been largely digested, and capital is willing to give some premium to these new consumption stocks with brand stories and store expansion plans. However, they are still small caps, and sentiment can come and go quickly, so don't mistake it for a trend reversal.

The restaurant chain sector was generally weak today. $Domino's(DPZ.US) fell five to six percentage points, with demand and same-store sales data in the pizza segment being scrutinized again, making the drop more noticeable; $Chagee(CHA.US) fell three to four percentage points, as competition in the tea beverage track is still being priced in; $GUMING(01364.HK) and $HAIDILAO(06862.HK) were basically flat. Tea beverages, hot pot, and pizza each have their own cycles, with the pressure on the pizza side being more obvious today. In contrast, Chinese-style restaurants were relatively stable—there's basically no incremental capital in the consumer sector overall, it's mostly a game of existing capital 🙃

$NetEase(NTES.US) and $CHERY AUTO(09973.HK) basically didn't move, $Chagee(CHA.US) and $Grab(GRAB.US) rose slightly, and $Krne Csi China Internet(KWEB.US) also basically didn't move—the entire batch of Chinese concept stocks and Asian consumer stocks is trading sideways. Over here, the Hang Seng Index was pressured lower by the Fed's hawkish stance, and Chinese stocks lack independent catalysts. Gaming, new tea drinks, and Southeast Asian mobility are each moving slowly according to their own fundamentals. Southeast Asian platforms like $Grab(GRAB.US) have relatively more resilience, but overall, the macro sentiment is still weighing them down. There's a lack of a signal that could systematically bring capital back to Chinese stocks. Until that signal appears, it's this kind of narrow-range fluctuation.

$LAOPU GOLD(06181.HK) rose by over four percentage points, while $MIXUE GROUP(02097.HK) fell by over three percentage points instead. Both are labeled under the 'new consumption' banner, yet they moved in opposite directions today. I don't think this divergence is coincidental—high gold prices make a company like $LAOPU GOLD(06181.HK), which leans towards luxury goods and relies on brand premium pricing, more resilient or even beneficial, whereas $MIXUE GROUP(02097.HK) follows a high-volume, value-for-money model. The market is concerned about whether the single-store model can still support its valuation after the store expansion dividend peaks. These two trajectories are likely to continue diverging. Do you see any reasons for them to converge again?

$Chagee(CHA.US) and $MIXUE GROUP(02097.HK) both rose slightly. After the wave of new tea drink IPOs passed, both companies' stock prices entered a long period of valuation digestion. The store expansion data isn't bad, but the capital market is no longer paying for store opening speed alone.

What will truly make valuations jump again in the future is most likely the inflection point in the single-store model's profit margin, not the number of stores—which company will deliver this proof first? I'm betting on $MIXUE GROUP(02097.HK), which has a clearer path to supply chain cost dilution. The story for $Chagee(CHA.US)'s higher average ticket price awaits validation from its overseas stores.

$Chagee(CHA.US) rose more than seven percentage points. This wave of movement after its IPO has been really strong, and the scarcity value of new-style tea drinks in the U.S. stock market is still fermenting 💪

$Five Below(FIVE.US) also rose slightly. Discount retail actually has a customer flow logic in an environment with sticky inflation; $Procter & Gamble(PG.US) moved sideways, just lying flat like this among consumer stocks with no new story.

$Luckin Coffee(LKNCY.US) rose slightly, $MGM CHINA(02282.HK) also rose a bit, while $AUNTEA JENNY(02589.HK) fell by -11%—both are in offline consumption, yet they are worlds apart.

$AUNTEA JENNY(02589.HK) has seen its market cap drop below the 10 billion mark since listing, with its supply chain and net profit margin being pressured by peers. Every rebound looks more like a window to escape. $Luckin Coffee(LKNCY.US) is at the other extreme, still expanding its store network and refining its single-store model. In the same bubble tea and coffee track, the pricing power gap spans an era. For $AUNTEA JENNY(02589.HK), which has fallen so much, are there any odds for a turnaround? Unless the franchisee ecosystem stabilizes first, even high odds mean catching a falling knife.

$MNSO(09896.HK) rose slightly by two points, with value-for-money retail showing relative resilience in this wave; $Chagee(CHA.US) fell by over two points, as the new tea beverage sector is giving back earlier gains; $MGM Resorts(MGM.US) and $CTG DUTY-FREE(01880.HK) were basically flat, with gaming and duty-free staying quiet.

When wallets are tight, essential value-for-money items hold up better than discretionary indulgences. The trend of consumption stratification is highly likely to continue in the short term. Have you seen any signs of a recovery in discretionary consumption?

D-Wave has dropped by seven or eight points, and IONQ has also dropped by over four points. Both quantum computing stocks are weakening together 🤔. The sentiment that was driven up by AI and policy funds a while ago is now in a digestion phase. Real commercialization is still far away, and without new milestones, there is a lack of follow-up funds.

Should we take advantage of the pullback to set up a position, or wait for the next technology or order milestone? It looks more like we have to wait — for a pure milestone-driven track like quantum computing, sideways movement and gradual declines often last longer than imagined. Better entry points usually appear around major progress announcements, not halfway through the sentiment ebb.

Chagee barely moved, Trip.com and Coca-Cola both dipped slightly — these three stocks cover new Chinese concept tea drink stocks, Chinese concept travel, and US defensive consumption, and they all performed weakly today.

This kind of secondary new stock like Chagee lacks continuous catalysts, Trip.com's pre-peak season expectations haven't fully fermented yet, and Coca-Cola is a high-dividend defensive consumption play affected by the sideways US dollar environment.

Is the consumption sector waiting for the next driving signal? It looks more like — before the three key points of 618, summer travel, and Q2 earnings reports, this consumption line is highly likely to continue grinding at low levels.

Mixue fell by two percentage points, while Chagee rose by over four percentage points—both are new forces in the tea beverage sector, yet one fell in Hong Kong stocks while the other rose in U.S. stocks. Is it due to Hong Kong stock liquidity issues causing Mixue's drop, or are the pricing logics of the tea beverage track completely independent between Hong Kong and the U.S.? The answer is most likely the latter—Mixue, having just IPOed, is still undergoing valuation recovery, while U.S. capital is more willing to buy into the "globalization of Chinese tea beverages" narrative for Chagee. The capital profiles on both sides are different.

Haidilao flat, Guming slightly down — both Hong Kong-listed restaurant chains are quiet. After the tea beverage IPO hype subsided, valuations have entered a relatively quiet digestion period 👀

Shanghai Aunty fell nearly six percentage points, which is quite eye-catching. The new tea beverage Hong Kong stocks have been performing very weakly over the past two months, and they've been hit again 😔.

Anta Sports basically didn't move, Pepsi and Uber declined slightly, and Giant Biogene fell nearly four percentage points.

Leapmotor fell a little over one percentage point, consistent with the Hong Kong industrial manufacturing sector.

Overall, essential consumption and new consumption in Hong Kong stocks are waiting for the tariff situation to be finalized. Blue-chip leaders like Anta still have ballast-like properties, while small-cap new consumption stocks like Shanghai Aunty and Giant Biogene are more a result of liquidity crowding out and exiting.

Mixue Group rose slightly; Chow Tai Fook Jewellery fell three percentage points. On the Chinese consumption side, the catering sector is stable, while jewelry is pulling back due to a lack of new narratives in gold prices 😀. Mixue is about scale expansion and the single-store model story, while Chow Tai Fook is about gold price beta; they are two different consumption rhythms.