hectic

i think that investors are looking at the right things such as AI capex getting higher and the price correcting downwards makes sense. for SPCX, it might require a longer time horizon to be a good investment, especially considering that there will be many shares flooding the market after friday

great earnings that prove that AI is having positive economic impact has brought the market back up, plus the hope for the strait being under US control leading to a higher chance the conflict can be resolved is what has driven this move up. we are still in a headline sensitive environment so we should still be aware and manage our risk properly, nothing can continue going up forever but we must stay invested to be part of the gains

my predicted closing price is $103.83. i believe that earnings will not be able to show that it is a profitable company as of current and would need much more time to become profitable. also, i believe that the lock up period expiring will weigh down on sentiment even before those shares are eligible to be sold on 6 aug

yesterday’s risk on session where MSFT and memory names surged feels like it can be attributed to both earnings proving that AI capex can translate as well as investors buying the dip from days prior. i am hopeful for continued upward momentum

MSFT has been rewarded by AI spending converting more visibly into Azure growth, Copilot adoption and a large backlog, while META faces heavier free cash flow problems due to commitment to AI capex. META’s ad engine is still working and the future ROI on AI capex leads me to believe that there is still growth, not all doom and gloom for META

i think yesterday’s market showed a clear split, AAPL pushing towards 5 trillion valuation while semis stayed under pressure tells me that investors are willing to pay for quality mega cap defensiveness but are less forgiving on chips. the earnings coming in the next few days will probably cause big headline moves and dictate the direction of the market thereafter

i think investors are getting a bit more cautious as seen by NVDA’s fall and the weakness in memory stocks which suggest the AI trade may not be as straightforward as before. adding on CXMT’s debut to add more pressure and the market may now be looking more closely at who can still hold margins and pricing power.

$Intel(INTC.US)

Semis look to be recovering after a much needed reset, and Intel can finally benefit if the broader chip tape keeps improving into earnings week. The stock still has to prove that the turnaround is real, but the setup is better than it was a few weeks ago because investors are starting to reward names tied to AI infrastructure, server demand, and manufacturing execution again. Intel reports Q2 results on July 23, with revenue expectations around $14.3 billion to $14.4 billion and a key focus on gross margin, guidance, and whether management can show real progress on its foundry and product ramp.

What makes this interesting is that Intel does not need perfection to move higher, it just needs to show the story is continuing to improve. If guidance holds up and the company can point to stronger server CPU demand, better yields, and steadier execution, the market may start treating Intel less like a underperformee and more like a rebuilding beneficiary of the same AI spending wave lifting the rest of semis. The main risk is that expectations are already elevated, so any margin miss or weak outlook could quickly cool the relief rally.

semis look to be recovering after a much needed and will continue to rise as long as AI spending signals from TSLA and GOOGL support the story. NVDA’s production momentum will help to seal the deal and drive these stocks upward