morning_wind

$Meta Platforms(META.US)$Direxion Semicon Bull 3X(SOXL.US)My take on the Meta thing: Market-based measures have optimized the resource allocation efficiency of computing infrastructure, similar to how a planned economy is being adjusted. It doesn't affect the overall supply-demand imbalance issue of the entire silicon-based industry. Locally, it might even increase the tolerance for internal competition among various CSP/CAPEX spenders: computing power is still something to fight for; it's better to scale it up in your own hands; if you really can't scale it up, you won't lose out (you can still resell it).

If your account is still in the green in the first half of the year, don't be discouraged.

Because: May is poor, June is desperate, July sees a turnaround, September and October are golden, the year-end sprint is coming, and great doublings are all achieved in the second half of the year.

The first half is either a "youth trap" or a "children's trap," neither is very promising; the second half is the real deal: July turnaround, August consolidation, September surprise attack, October harvest, and a year-end sprint to new highs.

$LAIFUAL(03952.HK) actually broke its issue price in the morning session today. The discount compared to the A-share $Leaderdrive(688017.SH) is too exaggerated. Buying a bit to show support.

Anthropic: U$62B

OpenAI: U$40B

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The recent ARR situation of the two companies in June is still rising.

$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

If you think silicon-based is too risky and want to look at carbon-based, you should still be cautious about bottom-fishing in Chinese internet stocks in Hong Kong. Pharmaceutical leaders are relatively at low points and have the potential to emerge first.$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)$BEONE MEDICINES(06160.HK)$INNOVENT BIO(01801.HK)

$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) is officially going to list on the US stock market. Estimated date is July 10th. The new share issue price will be based on the closing price on the 23rd. Coincidentally, it plunged 12% in a single day on the 23rd. It's really hard to say if this big drop was intentional...

Last night, the market was speculating that Google's questioning of MAG7's massive bleeding investments might all be about practicing the Sunflower Manual (a risky, self-destructive strategy);

Today, it feels like they're realizing something's wrong while practicing and starting to live within their means, and hardware is going to suffer as a result.

Expressed dissatisfaction with the continuous large outflow of talent related to the model of $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), sold a portion today. Reallocated into $Intel(INTC.US) and $Cerebras(CBRS.US). The reason for buying Intel is also clearly buying into some narratives over the weekend (CEO interview). Still hold quite a bit of Google, but the main expectation is now only on cloud and TPU. The expectations for the model since last year's Q3 are now gone.

Let me summarize Mr. Dan Bin's recent activities for everyone. It's all public data, so I won't go on about risk warnings and such; just for your reference. $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) Nothing much to say, steadily hitting new all-time highs.

Assumption:

Will it open high and close low again today, just to trick us? $KLA(KLAC.US)$Direxion Semicon Bull 3X(SOXL.US). On the other hand, in the US stock market, it feels like the focus of urgent value is shifting even more towards hardware.

Current positions, for reference only.

Hold on! Hold the door!

$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) Data shows SK Hynix's depositary receipts rose 14% on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in Germany. Let's see how much we can recover tomorrow.

The number of daily trading orders is very high today. Sold $Meta Platforms(META.US), further increasing exposure to AI. Part of the buying is for short-term rebound catching, and part is for building positions in $KLA(KLAC.US) and $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) as long-term holdings. If the rebound goes smoothly, subsequent short-term positions will continue to be moved into $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH.US) for style distribution.

The first step is a significant increase in capex, occurring in the first 1-2 years. The second step is to continue increasing capex substantially, with free cash flow nearly exhausted or even turning negative, and dividends reduced, which is a matter for 2026. Now it seems the third step has begun. $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) wasn't satisfied with just long-term bond financing and even kicked off equity financing, and $Meta Platforms(META.US) surprisingly followed suit. It's very clear how FOMO the industry leaders are, showing a firm bullishness on AI. Considering the upcoming IPOs of three behemoths, the absorption of liquidity (whether by draining non-tech sectors, the crypto circle, or consuming macro liquidity) will be very fierce. Fluctuations in liquidity expectations will amplify market volatility. The overnight market is turbulent, just recording this.

$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) After a big rally, scary stories are bound to come. To preserve the interaction, nvda halved the memory allocation. First, it didn't cut HBM. Second, it did so because the memory was insufficient. Why is the memory insufficient? Because besides GPUs, now CPUs/XPUs also need it. This is a sign of shortage.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) can't stand it anymore. Sell a bit of $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) to support Dazi. The storage stocks next door are rising so happily, can HBM shipments directly turn into computing power? Without GPU shipments, where would HBM shipments come from?

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) Making a separate post to explain why I think it's rising: After the agent, the overall focus of AI chips has become more decentralized and diversified. Mobile, Apple, CPU, AMD, ARM, various ASICs, and HBM are becoming more balanced in terms of weight. On one hand, this has led to a broad-based rise; on the other hand, TSMC's production capacity is facing increasingly diverse demands from customers, all of which are urgent. Although TSMC has expanded capacity, after several months of transmission by the agent, the most critical bottleneck has finally reached the manufacturing and packaging stage. The demand for capacity is urgent, and it's not just NVDA dominating the market. What to do? Raise prices!

$JOYY(JOYY.US), cash equals market cap, a very aggressive dividend plan. Even if it's a cigarette butt, it's made of gold. Bought a position last night. Hope this can set an example for the old guard of Chinese concept stocks and kick things off. The $PDD(PDD.US) lottery results are out tonight, learn something from it.

$AMD(AMD.US) AMD and OpenAI are both racing towards trillion-dollar valuations. A few months ago, the two companies signed a bet, and now they are in the final stage of mutual commitment: OpenAI will deploy up to 6GW of AMD Instinct series GPUs in phases, with the first 1GW batch expected to start in the second half of 2026; in return, AMD will grant OpenAI up to 160M equity subscription rights (approximately 10%), linked to delivery/market cap milestones. The market reacted strongly to this deal, bringing a lot of upside potential, but it also comes with significant dilution, execution, and infrastructure risks.

In the CPU sector, almost all institutions missed the market rally in April$AMD(AMD.US)$Intel(INTC.US)

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)$Alphabet(GOOGL.US), thanks to the 13F, the quality of the two StockPro picks the OP is responsible for has been verified once again.