股界无意烦

The market has been extremely focused these two days

After the evening of August 28th US time

on the earnings report from $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

The market is confident about

its performance over the past three months

Passing is not a problem

But the future development and profit outlook

to be released by its CEO Jensen Huang next

With profits continuously exceeding expectations

and stock prices hitting new highs

Merely meeting market expectations is no longer enough

It must far exceed expectations

for Nvidia to have the strength to break new highs

Otherwise, this could be the beginning of the AI bubble bursting

However, with the global economic slowdown in the US

are major brands and super tech platforms

still willing to continue investing

to pursue bigger dreams ahead

without considering short-term gains?

Or have they bought enough Nvidia GPUs?

If the US economy accidentally enters a recession

will these super companies continue buying GPUs?

We will keep observing

If the stock market crashes,

it might instead be the long-awaited long-term investment opportunity we've been waiting for 🤔

The US stock market experienced a day of opening high and closing low, with the technology sector particularly hard hit. The S&P 500 fell as much as 1%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.8%, and the Russell small-cap index also closed at its daily low, down about 1%. The chip stock index fell by 3.4%, while the China concept stock index declined by 1.5%. Among the tech giants, Nvidia$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) fell 3.7%, Tesla$Tesla(TSLA.US) dropped 5.7%. Meta$Meta Platforms(META.US), despite hitting a new high at one point, ended slightly lower. Baidu and Bilibili saw significant stock price volatility, while EHang Holdings bucked the trend with a rise of over 16%.

US economic data showed that the August Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest level this year, while the services sector performed slightly better than expected, with the services supplier price index dropping to its lowest since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week met expectations, while continuing claims remained above levels seen since last November.

In the bond market, the two-year US Treasury yield rose by 10 basis points, returning above 4%, while the ten-year US Treasury yield also saw a similar increase. This dynamic reflects the market's reassessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction.

The US dollar index rose strongly, with most major non-US currencies falling. The depreciation of the Japanese yen and offshore Chinese yuan against the dollar was particularly notable. The cryptocurrency market also came under pressure, with Bitcoin's price testing the $60,000 mark.

In the commodities market, while US natural gas futures prices fell, crude oil prices rebounded, with US oil prices briefly moving away from their lowest level in six months. Spot gold prices also declined, falling below the $2,500 mark, while major metal prices in the London Metal Market generally fell.

In Asia, Chinese stocks performed weakly overall, but treasury futures were strong. In Hong Kong, Xiaomi Group$XIAOMI-WR(81810.HK) saw significant gains after its earnings announcement.

Last night, against the backdrop of continued signs of cooling in the U.S. economy and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, risk aversion intensified on the opening day of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices declined after opening at highs, with the Nasdaq falling more than 2% at one point, led by the technology sector. Despite this, the Dow Jones and small-cap stocks performed relatively better, reflecting mixed market sentiment. Although the U.S. June JOLTS job openings report was better than expected, voluntary resignations and hiring both declined significantly, while layoffs decreased. Goldman Sachs analysis suggests that despite the rise in the unemployment rate, there is no need for excessive concern.

The chip industry suffered heavy losses, with the chip stock index falling nearly 4%, Nvidia dropping 7%, and Tesla declining about 4%. Cybersecurity company CrowdStrike plunged nearly 10% due to claims from Delta Air Lines, while Apple's major suppliers such as Corning and Qualcomm also fell about 7% each. Chinese concept stocks overall declined 1.5%.

Microsoft$Microsoft(MSFT.US)'s second-quarter earnings report showed that its revenue, EPS profit, and operating profit all increased by 10% year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed compared to the first quarter, and cloud revenue unexpectedly decelerated, causing its after-hours stock price to plummet by 8% at one point. In contrast, AMD$AMD(AMD.US)'s second-quarter AI revenue doubled, and it raised its full-year sales outlook, with its after-hours stock price rising 9%.

Arista's second-quarter performance and future outlook both exceeded market expectations, and its after-hours stock price achieved a V-shaped rebound. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg discussed the future possibilities of AI at the SIGGRAPH 2024 conference, further sparking interest in AI technology.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified market risk aversion, driving up the prices of U.S. Treasuries, gold, and the yen, but oil prices were not boosted, instead falling more than 1.4% to their lowest level since early June. Bitcoin prices also came under pressure, nearing the $65,000 low.

In the Asian market, A-shares experienced volatile declines, with energy and high-end liquor stocks such as Kweichow Moutai performing poorly, while the 30-year Treasury bond price hit a record high, reflecting the market's pursuit of long-term capital safety.

The stock market has been bloody these days, with tech and semiconductor stocks falling significantly.

Every time I see a market pullback, I first look at the overall market trend, especially QQQ, because when the market drops 5%-10%, individual stocks can drop 15% or more.

Looking at the weekly chart of QQQ, there are two obvious big red candles, dropping about 9.61% to near the MA20 level. The last time it fell to this level was in April. At the same time, it can be seen that every three-week pullback tends to rebound—let’s see if this time will be different.

In a bull market, an annual pullback of 5-10% is quite normal. Consolidation and position reshuffling are necessary for long-term growth—the market can’t rise forever.

During a bull market pullback, you need to know when to get in and buy bravely. Every well-timed pullback is a great buying opportunity, in my personal opinion.

苹果股价暴跌，拖累美股表现，道琼斯指数$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US)周五闭市急跌 150 点。

亚马逊$Amazon(AMZN.US)业绩爆棚，营收和盈利都高过市场预期，盘后股价喷 8%。能够如此之好，主要是撙节成本后，北美电商业务的赚幅增加。

北美电商业务

Operating margin

Q1- 1.2%

Q2 – 3.9%

Operating income

Q1 – 0.9b

Q2- 3b

要知道亚马逊的营收体量是千亿计算，只要增加 1% 的 margin，能够赚到的钱也会多非常多。

管理层在 Q1 给出的指引是，电商业务的 margin 可以回到疫情前的水平，大约是 4-5%。

美股连跌 2 天，道琼斯指数$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US)周四闭市挫 66 点。

有「全球资产定价之锚」之称的美国 10 年期公债殖利率升破 4%，创去年 11 月以来新高，也抑制了风险市场。而投资人於新一批企业财报和非农就业数据出炉前，保持谨慎，美股主指周四 (3 日) 收低。

Apple$Apple(AAPL.US)的业绩差强人意。

连续几个季度业绩都差过去年同期

CEO 也认为下季度的业绩也会差过同比。

主要是无论 IPhone, IPad 等硬体商品

都在下跌，IPhone 还好，下跌一点

但 IPad 和 IMac 的下跌是双位数。

还好服务业营收继续上升，

整体上苹果业绩还是比市场预期差。

股价看来不断破新高

但业绩追不上了，

那么股价回调是理所当然的事情。

全球最大公司业绩不如预期，

股价如果调整

那么 8，9 月美国股市调整是合情合理。

大家要小心啊。

大家等待 9 月发布的 IPhone 15，

还有 PC 行业的回升。

根据 Refinitiv 的报道，

在公布的 334 家标准普尔 500 指数 SPX 中，有 79.7％超过了市场的预期。

这个好的预期，

不是代表着盈利一定上升或者成长

很大可能是盈利下降的。

只是市场已经认为他们会跌好多

结果只是跌不多

就好过预期

好过预期大概率就股价上涨

但美股也上的太快

股价比业绩预期还要快

最近业绩好也没有什么力了。

美国国家信用评级

被 FitchRating 降级去 AA+

之前是无敌 AAA。

结果全球股市一片大跌

看到国际媒体打出 “黑色星期三”“

” 黑天鹅出现！“

其实这不是第一次美国政府信用被降级

在 10 多年前就被 S&P 降级过，一样是 AA+。

而且 5 月 FitchRating 已经警告过美国政府了

国债不断扩大，而且国会常常要辩论是否要提高上限

就会导致可能的 Default 没钱还债的风险

他们随时会降级美国的信用

既然是已经警告和不是第一次了。

在金融学上，这不是黑天鹅

黑天鹅是指突然发生不可测的坏事

只是一匹灰犀牛

灰犀牛是指已经知道潜在的坏事。

短短一天，大家都忘了这条是犀牛还是公牛，反正犀牛也有公的

就犀牛当公牛用

大跌就当成机会。

大家都忘了天鹅还是犀牛

都在看着到底是棕熊在吃苹果

还是西部狂牛在推着苹果树？

股市永远是牛熊交替，「五穷，六绝，七翻身」应验了吗？要怎麽做才能捉住牛市带来的赚钱机会？

机会是留给有准备的人，五六月低潮布局的投资者，已握有盈利，若市场进一步上涨，已经布局的人或许可以提早达到盈利目标。

＂五穷月＂即将结束，＂六绝月＂可能更加凶险，然而，最坏情况总会过去，投资者一定要随时做好准备，才能成为股市赢家。

美国债务上限谈判对美股影响减低，投资者重新布局，道琼斯指数$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US)周二曾下跌 200 点，闭市时缩窄至跌 50 点。

美股已经上扬了两天，恐是利多护盘，nasdaq , 明示要利多出尽。

恒指$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)终于跌穿（颈线）大户的目标路人皆见， 我就不多作解释。

这幅主力墙确实不能队穿， 但已成事实， 唯有想想破解方法。

方法一， 升穿 23000 点， 现时行走的（头肩顶）形态， 立时变成（头肩底）的右肩。方法二， 在这水平上上落落， 终极一插至 15000 点， 变成（双底）, 然后再爆上。

以上两个方案， 其中一项必须成真， 否则形态长在。

AMD$AMD(AMD.US)股价上升有点快我还预计下半年才会站稳 110，结果比想像快了不少。

这张图片像极了如今的美国股市，靠的只是 AI 力量在扶持着哈哈。

美国总统说他和美国众议院议长达成了初步预算上限协议。接下来的一天，双方最终敲定立法文本，然后提交给美国两院众议院和参议院通过。

美国众议院议长也发布周日应该可以完成起草法案，他预计美国时间周三带到国会投票。这代表着这个让股市下跌的闹剧，让许多认为他们最终会谈妥的投资者，带来很好的机会。

观察标普 500 的技术图，头也冒出来了，开始跟随纳斯达克的脚步突破阻力。然而，我看到标普的空头仓位却创了新高，空军现在应该很紧张。

过去一周，因为 Nvidia$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)交出劲爆的前瞻，老黄用 AI 之力，将半导体和科技股拉了起来，有点 2020/2021 的疯牛味道，反观道琼就普遍比较弱。现在似乎没人在乎债务上限和 pce。

Nasdaq100 指数日内上涨 2％，为自 2022 年 4 月以来的最高水平。这得感谢 AI 和 Chatgpt。

随期限迫近，美国政府债务上限谈判似又有进度，股市积极反应，道琼斯指数$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US)周五闭市涨 328 点。

如果从标准普 500 指数中剔除 META$Meta Platforms(META.US)、AMZN$Amazon(AMZN.US)、MSFT、AAPL、GOOGL $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)NVDA$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)和 TSLA，该指数今年仅上涨 1%。

仅这 7 只股票在一个指数中今年就上涨了 44%, 这意味着标准普尔 500 指数中其余 493 家公司今年迄今仅上涨 1%。

与此同时，标准普尔 500 指数年初至今上涨 10%, 少数股票控制了整个股市。

AI 強大的力量，加上美联储的加息周期接近尾声，促使 Citi 调升对美国市场的展望，华尔街正在转向。

Cathie Wood 今年一月以 Nvidia$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)估值过高而清仓 Nvidia ，是完全错过超过 100% 股价涨幅的颠覆行业专家。