强子论市

The reason why $Xiaomi Group-W(01810)$ has lagged behind the broader market these past two days is likely still due to interference from the product launch event. As a traditional practice for Xiaomi, a few days before every launch event, there's always capital lying in wait, only to front-run and sell off right before the event. Now that tonight's launch is over, tomorrow should see a return to normal rhythm.

$Meituan-W(03690)$ Which expert can estimate whether the average closing price in October will be lower than that in September.

Haha, autonomous driving is a matter of life and death. Based on common sense, I also believe in Huawei.

First, the depth of technology. Huawei is awesome in China and even globally, with end-to-end solutions from underlying chips, operating systems, development tools, computing servers, to autonomous driving algorithms, etc.

Second, fully self-developed across the entire industry chain. Without American technology, there is no risk of backdoors being left in autonomous driving chips, like what happened with Lebanon's pagers.

$Seres Group(SH601127)$

Tesla's goal is autonomous driving, which requires a large number of cars on the road. This is something luxury cars cannot achieve due to their limited sales volume, so they don't need as many factories.

This should be used to regulate Tesla. Is Musk ready with Moutai?

None of the samples in my fund pool outperformed the CSI 300 Index today, with the closest being Zhang Heng's Wanjia Yihe A at 4.24%.

If during the previous decline in the CSI 300, funds like Da Cheng Advantage Enterprise that had accumulated substantial excess returns were not present, then such a sudden surge would be a nightmare for actively managed equity funds focused on relative returns (the same applies to actively managed equity funds in Hong Kong). Additionally, funds that have maintained low positions for a long time would see their excess returns eroded even faster if the market rally proves sustainable.

However, the current issue is that many people don't seem to believe this rally will last long. I also tend to hold long-term expectations while trading short-term sentiment. #Chinese assets surge! Chinese concept stocks rally collectively!#

英伟达继续新高，一天涨出 “阿里 + 百度 + 京东”。。。

这里有一个称作 “格里芬” 的人，他是全球对冲基金之王城堡基金的创始人。这个基金在过去 32 年中仅有两年亏损，年化收益率高达 19%。他们采用了量化多交易策略，成为了市场上的武器库。2022 年，格里芬为客户赚取了 160 亿美元的利润，打破了保尔森在 2008 年做空时创造的 150 亿美元的记录。

但是事实上，大多数普通人无法享受指数的全盈段，核心原因在于一般人往往在买高价时卖低，从而亏本。因此，在阅读 “投资者因市场下跌而亏损” 之类的新闻时，我们应该微笑看待，将其编辑为 “当市场下跌时，退出的人亏损，而坚定的投资者会获得利润”。这是老巴 1997 年的名言。

格里芬希望我们能从他在 2008 年的教训中学到一些东西。当时城堡基金遭受了重大的打击。为了避免类似的事情再次发生，格里芬采取了一个棘手的措施——禁止大部分投资者在未来十个月内赎回资金，而且即使是可以赎回的资金也要支付高额的费用。这一策略的成功，是他在 1994 年学到的一个重要课程。

总之，要想获利并不容易，需要我们精心谋划。希望我们能够坚定自己的投资信仰，成为真正的投资者，获得更高的收益。

【冰火两重天的可不仅是股市】

今年股市的冰火两重天让很多投资者哭爹骂娘，但两重天的极致却是在楼市。

昨天我老妈给我电话，说老家旁边的碧桂园 17 年时候精装修 1.2w 一平的小区现在毛坯 4.7k 一平了，还送车位，要不要考虑买一套，只要 50w 一套了。6 年不到，房价基本是腰斩两次，跌了 60% 多，这是什么概念？

这两年在股市看过也经历过了不少股票跌去 60~70% 的，比如平安恒瑞等等，但是权益资产流动性好，只要公司不差，基本两年左右就能涨回来七七八八，但是房子这种高价值低流动性长周期的资产就不一样了，想要再回到之前价格五年十年内可能都没机会的，所以这种下跌是极其悲剧的，当年 1.2w 买了的如果现在还在还贷真的比 21 年买了中公教育（当年大 A 跌幅第一）的还要惨很多很多，因为正常没人中公教育买 100 多 w 仓位的吧？比如我当时就有中公教育，小仓位也就只亏了 1.8w。而且股市还可以补仓降低成本，楼市呢？再买一套吗？

来看看另一重天啥样。这两天我好朋友非常郁闷，他在认筹浦东一个热门楼盘，名字不说了，不重要，认筹第一天寒风冷雨中（那天上海突然降温 + 下雨）排队 5 小时，室内等待 + 认筹 5 小时，一共搞了 10 小时，快凌晨才认筹完，中间冻得不行还让他老妈专程去送衣服保暖，结果这两天发现自己的积分（好像接近 70 分裸分，也不低的）已经基本被枪毙了，因为 300 多套房已经有 1500 多组认筹了，比赛还没开始他就被退赛了，认筹金交了 100w 也就纯给开发商去赚利息了。

楼市的割裂比股市更加恐怖吧。。。

我认为未来只要和资本相关的无论股市还是楼市，冰火两重天都将是常态了，机会永远有，但是危险会更多。楼市是区域分化，股市是注册制效应，无论投资什么，认知的重要性都变得更加重要。以前随便买什么，只要有耐心候个牛市，都能大赚，现在呢，看不准方向候到的就只能是别人的牛市。

蘑菇目前的方向供参考：短期（3 个月之内）证券保险充电桩，中期（半年到一年）半导体医药造船，一直守着的是中药。$SSE Index(000001.SH) $Wanma Co., Ltd(002276.SZ) $ChiNext(399006.SZ)