是空小白啊

$Almonty Industries(ALM.US) went too far again today, opening directly at -6.27%, with trading volume of 11 million USD soaring, it seems like the intraday traders are all activated... It's only been a little over 4 months since its IPO, and the turnover rate of 0.78 is quite aggressive! I checked the announcements and there's no new news, wasn't there talk about a tungsten mine acquisition before? Maybe the aftereffects haven't been fully digested yet. Recently, the community hype has suddenly surged, the atmosphere is weird, feels like a bunch of people are taking turns hyping up themes, not sure when the next move will come🤔 Do you guys think there's still a chance for this drop to rebound?🔥

NioCorp is actually not a big company, with a market cap of just over 680 million. Recently, the hype around rare earth & raw materials has clearly reversed. Three days ago, signs of capital outflow were particularly obvious, with nearly 16 million USD withdrawn and a turnover rate exceeding 2%, indicating that major players are pulling out. The last time NB fell like this, it took about three days to recover. Right now, it's still a typical case of small-cap stocks being driven by sentiment, which is also a warning signal for the entire sector 🧐

To be honest, leveraged small-cap ETFs like KPDD.US have quite limited strategies. With a size of $6.9 million, although the turnover is high, it essentially relies solely on PDD's solo performance. Mainstream ETFs at least have more diversified sector baskets, but this one is fixated on a single stock, entirely driven by market sentiment🙃 Fees have always been high, and there's been basically no dividends since its IPO last year. It can't afford daily volatility - when sector trends shift, it immediately follows wildly. Are you all just playing around or waiting for daily moves?

Frankly speaking, I'm not that anxious about this round of Federal Reserve chair transition, focusing more on long-term inflation and asset pricing. Short-term volatility is indeed unavoidable, but the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong, and holding core assets gives me peace of mind. The market expects the new chair to be dovish, which may boost tech growth, but current valuations aren't cheap. I think gradual dollar-cost averaging is more stable. Historically, the first quarter of a new chair's term often presents opportunities amid volatility.

Xiaomi Group-W (01810) Every rise is so difficult, it can't even outperform the Hang Seng Tech Index, and major shareholders are still selling at high levels. There's no way your stock price can recover. I'm liquidating my position to buy XPeng and Meituan. Lei Jun, you're just a monkey trainer. Xiaomi, you'll never be recognized by the capital market in this lifetime.

Tencent Holdings (00700) The highest repurchase price of Tencent today shall not exceed 414 yuan

Xiaomi Group-W (01810) that acceleration instantly gave me a heart-stopping feeling

XPeng has already started a 5x rally

NVIDIA $123

Super Luding Gong: Such a big gap at the opening today, 180 points in two days, what has fundamentally changed? Years of experience have trained a group of people to cash out when the market rises, and with such a big rally, the "national team" won’t step in to prevent a drop. Plus, the shorts had already surrendered at the opening, so a consolidation is needed here.

The overall upward trend remains unchanged.

Personal thoughts: At the opening, shorts turned into longs, and day traders cashed out during the session. But overall, with the U.S. cutting rates and domestic policies rolling out intensively, the trend is definitely upward. So during the session, I chose Huadian Power International, switching from A-shares to H-shares, and even chased the rally with a small top-up—partly because the valuation is cheaper, and partly because U.S. rate cuts have a bigger impact on Hong Kong stocks than A-shares.

XPeng and Nio will soon increase their sales volume.

To save the economy and the market, when there is no other way, the only options are to issue government bonds or start the printing press. This is an ironclad rule, the same for all countries.

China has bid farewell to land finance and ushered in the era of government bond finance. Currently, with government bond yields being snapped up by the market, the yields are relatively low, making it an opportune time to issue bonds. Simply put, government bonds are a way for the state to borrow money from the wealthy to stimulate the economy. The three drivers of GDP are exports, investment, and consumption. Against the backdrop of a cooling global economy and increasingly frequent international trade disputes, it is difficult to significantly boost exports. As for investment, land finance is already unsustainable, leaving consumption stimulation as the only viable option. Moreover, consumption is directly linked to the well-being of the people and should be the primary focus of stimulation. Coupled with the ongoing trend of consumption tax reform, consumption will be the national priority for the next decade. With local governments gaining this new tax revenue source, the motivation to improve the consumption environment and promote spending will be strong.

Looking at the development history of various countries, the shift from emphasizing manufacturing to prioritizing consumption is universal, aiming to maximize domestic production and sales. The process of promoting consumption also coincides with the improvement of living standards for the people. My view differs from many investors in consumer stocks—I don’t believe that essential consumer companies are more worthy of investment than discretionary consumer companies. Investment worthiness depends on product differentiation, not whether the products are essential or discretionary. However, current market valuations are baffling. Essential consumer companies are inexplicably overvalued. For instance, Haitian Flavouring & Food Co. Ltd. (603288.SH), despite falling for nearly four years, still trades at a P/E (TTM) of 35. Similarly, Wilmar International (47 P/E TTM) and Nongfu Spring (22 P/E TTM) remain highly valued. Many valuations make no sense to me. Since these are essential consumer goods, they affect the lives of even the poorest families, and the products themselves lack significant differentiation. Where is the room for price hikes or consumption growth? With the population plateauing, there’s little room for expansion. How can the stability of net profits justify such high valuations, comparable to government bonds? These companies have never distributed 100% of their net profits as dividends, and their capital expenditures and maintenance costs are not low. Do they deserve such high valuations? Market valuations are irrational most of the time. Essential consumer stocks are severely overvalued, while discretionary consumer stocks are undervalued.

Value investors in China must capitalize on these market mispricings. During market downturns, the market often provides seemingly acceptable reasons for the less resolute and less insightful investors to sell, creating opportunities to acquire high-quality assets at attractive valuations. This nearly four-year correction has set the stage for another wealth redistribution—a feast for value investors. The real growth stocks are those that can generate excess profits, sustain future growth, require minimal capital expenditures, and offer generous dividends. Why bother with so-called pseudo-growth companies? Years of investment experience have shown that these pseudo-growth companies are mostly riding valuation roller coasters, with little real profit to show. The times are advancing, and technology is evolving, but not all cutting-edge technologies are worth investing in. Many require years of capital expenditure before reaching a stable harvest phase, with ongoing high costs. How many individuals can endure years of losses for an uncertain future?

$Tencent Holdings (00700.HK)$ $Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH)$ $Wuliangye Yibin (000858.SZ)$

$SenseTime-W(00020)$ The Hang Seng Index will announce its second-quarter adjustment on May 17. SenseTime's current market cap is approximately HK$52 billion.

Hang Seng Index constituents with market caps below HK$50 billion include: New World Development, Hang Lung Properties, Tingyi, Zhongsheng Group, Xinyi Glass, Xinyi Energy, Hengan International, Sinopharm, WuXi AppTec, Sunny Optical, and Country Garden.

Even if SenseTime isn't included in the Hang Seng Index this time, it should be a strong candidate for future inclusion.

Reasons:

1. The only representative AI company in Hong Kong stocks

2. AI is a major future development element

3. Massive capital inflows into global AI companies

4. Projected geometric growth in future market cap (post-Tencent era)

5. SenseTime is the first unicorn nurtured by the Hong Kong government (face-saving issue for HK government)

6. SenseTime accompanied the Chinese government to Germany (subtle government relations)

7. SenseTime's collaboration with Chinese government on civil projects (numerous implementation projects, smart driving is just one aspect)

8. Clean slate achieved

Which do you think has greater potential for market cap doubling - New World Development or AI stock SenseTime😂. Even if it rises to HK$3, it's only a HK$100 billion market cap, while OpenAI is already valued at $100 billion USD pre-IPO.

I saw a fellow investor say that looking at surface conditions, everything appears negative with no reason to buy. Absolutely true! So wait until you find a reason, wait for announcements, then rush in to buy🤣.

$Xiaomi Corporation-W(01810)$ $China Youzan(08083)$