股友zPViLl

HUYA was too strong today, surging nearly 20% at one point during the session. This kind of movement is basically driven by news catalysts + crazy turnover, giving off some 2021 vibes...

ASPI also rose slightly following the nuclear hype. Recently, sector rotations have been so fast you can't keep up even in slippers. GOVX's continuous tormenting pattern with its additional share issuance is no longer surprising, while UXIN and PSQH just get a casual glance with no major moves. In today's U.S. stock market, it's hard to say whether patience or luck matters more.

Recently reviewing the $Starbucks(SBUX.US), $McDonald's(MCD.US), $Walmart(WMT.US), $Coca Cola(KO.US), and $Procter & Gamble(PG.US) in my portfolio, I found that consumer blue-chips are now all about "executives selling on one hand while dividends cushion you on the other." Holding these big stocks now feels like being a defensive midfielder—no expectation of explosive gains, just aiming to hold the line, passively collecting dividends, lying down to earn but not daring to fantasize too much. Whether it's stability or boredom depends on your personality.

$AUNTEA JENNY(02589.HK) This trend, I admit I don't understand at all why tea drinks can surge so sharply. Just got a target price call from the broker and it directly bounced back above HKD 100. Who wouldn't be tempted by that?

$MNSO(09896.HK) Clearly the earnings report was a buy rating, but why is it still dipping slightly?

$NONGFU SPRING(09633.HK) and $MENGNIU DAIRY(02319.HK) are both quite stable. The news isn't exactly a hidden risk, but it's not exciting either.

As for $BAMA TEA(06980.HK), it just listed a few days ago and already crashed hard…

$NetEase(NTES.US)

Looking at this trend is really a bit exhausting. Others are rising, but this one is still hovering around $145. Yesterday, NetEase opened at $145.79, with a high of $145.79 and a low that even dropped to $143.2, closing back at $145.17. The trading volume was over 520,000 shares, with a turnover of nearly $75 million. Liquidity can only be described as normal to low, with no major moves. Maybe the recent macro pressure or lack of new game news is keeping funds away to other targets. The market seems stagnant, with occasional small rallies quickly followed by drops. I checked a few groups, and no one is discussing it—probably everyone has given up. But NetEase's valuation has indeed been low, with peers' P/E ratios higher than its. Maybe waiting a bit longer will bring a wave. Lately, I'm almost at my limit, about to give up😂

Comment on Tencent and Pinduoduo//:Reply: Indeed a brilliant point

Xiaomi Group-W (01810) is moving like an electrocardiogram. Xiaomi is awesome, with such huge volume, it can still move like an electrocardiogram.

$Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388)$ failed to break through the 270 yuan mark twice. Looks like I need to step in and give it a hand.

In July, I will switch the 2 million HKD in my small account from China Xinhua (HK) stocks back to Ping An (HK) stocks. My wife thought I shouldn't make the switch, and I followed her advice without thinking too much.

If I had switched, I would have made about 35% more, around 700k HKD. Today, my wife was upset and said, 'Indeed, you can't make money beyond your knowledge.'

I comforted her, saying, 'It's okay, there are plenty of opportunities in the stock market.'

I said, 'Knowledge is something that comes into play at critical moments. Through this experience, your knowledge has improved.'

She said: 'Yes, I feel my knowledge has improved a lot.'

I asked: 'What knowledge has improved?'

She said: 'I should trust my husband more.'

Me: '......'

#A Life Without Regrets#

#Market Thoughts 2024# An update on the dividend strategy: Most dividend ETFs are tied to oil and coal. In the short term, neither fundamentals nor market positioning make them the best choice. If you don't mind the hassle, it's better to build your own dividend stock basket, especially when combined with some pro-cyclical ideas—the results might be better. However, dividend ETFs will also perform well, unlike in the past when the market rose while dividends fell, because the signs of a gradually expanding market are becoming more evident. I don't like talking about bull or bear markets in the traditional sense. In a market with fewer retail investors, the intensity of such phenomena will also diminish.

Let's briefly discuss $SPDR S&P Biotech ETF(XBI)$ and $Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares(LABU)$ 、$ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$.

There are two main reasons for the high attrition of leveraged ETFs: 1. The underlying assets are a basket of futures, options and total return swaps, with daily settlement of gains/losses; 2. High management fees (~0.75%).

The fundamental reason LABU can't compare with TQQQ is that XBI's valuation, EPS growth, and dividends/buybacks can't keep up with QQQ over the long term. In other words, XBI's component stocks lack long-term endogenous growth and shareholder return capabilities, and are too affected by external factors (interest rates, policies) - these constitute the 'attrition'.

QQQ's annual EPS growth and buybacks have driven its net value steadily northward, creating a slow bull market.

Leveraged ETFs are particularly suitable for slow bull varieties: valuation, EPS growth, and business models all need to be excellent.

Below is the net value curve of LABU and TQQQ since 2018.

$Xindong Company (02400)$ People who engage in day trading are essentially betting on one scenario: that the stock will fluctuate within a certain range for a period of time. So if a day trader sells too early, it's hard for them to buy back in the short term because it doesn't align with their strategy. Unless there's a major positive change in fundamentals and the stock price hasn't risen too much (though such a sweet deal is rare).

This is basically like selling a put option—the day trader collects a premium betting that the stock won't rise too much within a certain period, because if it exceeds their premium gains, it means a loss.

Why do day traders like to show off their trades? It's not about bragging.

It's because showcasing their results makes more people believe the stock can't break out, leading more to start day trading. The more people day trade, the greater the resistance for the stock.

But this is a double-edged sword. Success reinforces day traders' belief that the stock price will always come back. Even if the stock goes through a big roller coaster and returns to 20, non-day traders can sell at 40/50—they have that opportunity. But day traders sell at 20, missing out on further gains.

Every strategy has pros and cons.

Those who day traded between 22-18 actually made money because the stock fluctuated in that range for a long time.

But those who day traded between 10-14 have gone silent.

From a long-term perspective, which has more certainty, Tencent or Kweichow Moutai?

There are very few people at Wuyi Square now. It was said that 100 million people came to Changsha before, but now young people seem to have disappeared, just like where all the money went—probably hiding. My relatives who run shops all say it's hard to make ends meet, with such high rents and almost everyone losing money. It's so idle that I helped my family with their business, and it's really tough. A year's earnings can't even compare to a fraction of my stock returns. A city with over 10 million people has such weak consumption power, and most cities are in the same situation. Only a very few industries and individuals are making money. Stocks are undoubtedly still the best opportunity to earn. Running a business or doing physical work is just working for the landlord. There are many reasons for this, and if these issues aren't resolved, consumption won't improve. There's definitely a lot of money out there—it's almost like we need helicopters to scatter cash. With interest rates so low and regulation so loose, anyone with a decent job can get a loan of millions to buy property or trade stocks, something unimaginable before. But now, people are unwilling to take loans and are scared of debt. Meanwhile, the few wealthy people are aging and have weak spending power, while the hundreds of millions of young people with strong consumption potential have no money. E-commerce has also dealt a massive blow to the real economy. Most likely, a large number of stores will have to close before business can improve a little.

Institutions have started leveraging with quasi-unlimited liquidity, opening the Pandora's box of M&A restructuring to begin the grand narrative of turning ugly ducklings into phoenixes. A decline needs justification, breaking book value requires market cap improvement... They might as well say the market can only go up. Have you ever seen such madness? 3000 points is a given, likely to be reached before the holiday. The previous high of 3200 is just a warm-up - I conservatively target 3500 for now. $Foxconn Industrial Internet(SH601138)$ $Zhongji Innolight(SZ300308)$ $Suzhou TFC Optical Communication(SZ300502)$

$TENCENT(00700.HK) 700 will return to 500 this year

小米大定可以随便退，这还叫大定么？

近期，小红书的直播带货带来了不小的轰动，其中董洁的三场直播总 GMV 超过了 1.4 亿元，成为了小红书直播带货界的佼佼者。但是，小红书在直播带货的上限也被董洁刷新了。此外，小红书虽然在种草、购物、搜索引擎等方向上有所布局，但直到现在都没有取得多大的进展，在商业化上也仍然处于广告业务占主导地位的 “瘸腿选手” 地位。而且，小红书的用户最终交易环节不在平台上，这也是其成长的瓶颈。与此同时，其他大厂们也将小红书作为研究对象，在产品和运营等方面进行模仿，以期孵化出自己的 “种草” 生态。尽管小红书一度在内容社区上更加著名，但现在也越来越难以成为大厂的对手。

大家好，今天我想和大家聊一下投资论坛上的一篇文章。这篇文章讲述了股市投资中的一些经验和教训，言语中充满了对市场的无奈和矛盾情感。文章中提到，控制仓位很重要，尽量少做多看，否则做的越多，亏的也就越多。在市场出现波动时，有时候我们也需要像鸵鸟一样把头埋起来，等待风暴过去。作者也坦言，每次市场出现大起大落时，他都会遭遇到一地鸡毛的局面，感到十分无奈。对于一些高位破位的股票，作者建议横着心，果断卖出，因为总会有更狠的人比你先走。最后，作者也用幽默的方式表达了期望大家能早日摆脱市场的苦海。在文章中，还列举了一些股票，包括科士达、中科曙光和凌云光。无论文章中所提到的股票是否值得关注，乃至投资市场是否如文章所述，我们都应该以客观、理性的态度对待投资，避免过度情绪化的行为。