dongguaff

Lumentum is not without risks. There are many competitors, price wars have always existed, and customer concentration is high. Once major customers reduce orders, performance fluctuations are obvious. Market expectations are already much higher than last year. If demand recovery falls short of expectations later, the stock price may still be hit.

Gold, aluminum, non-ferrous metals, and the recently popular nuclear energy, the cyclical stocks in Hong Kong and A-shares all rose strongly today. Like CNNC International, directly a 6% leading sector with long legs, short-term hot money is steady. Gold veterans rely on safe-haven new highs, like China Gold and Zijin Mining making their presence felt again. Lingbao Gold went crazy a while ago, and now it's taking a breather. Looking back, it's others hitting new highs while I miss out. Cyclical excitement, but it feels like everyone around is short-term, holding long is still a dilemma, betting on the rhythm seems to be the way out.

$HASHKEY HLDGS(03887.HK) Another bearish candlestick. The blockchain sector has been hyping trends for years, but it never feels profitable. Reports may pump the price, but the market ultimately cares about real money.

$ZTE(00763.HK) This is even harder to swallow. Honestly, every time there's a bit of progress, they get hit with a "fine package". With constant external threats, I've long stopped expecting short-term surges. At this stage, just survive when you can.

Looking at $CAOCAO INC(02643.HK), the sector sentiment has picked up recently with institutional reports updating daily. However, the market is fluctuating violently, and people tend to cash out with just a slight rise, making it hard to decide whether to enter or exit. It always feels promising, but the capital isn't bold enough to charge in. Those holding positions probably just want to secure small profits and play it safe. I'll just keep watching for now.

Applied Optoelectronics is really confusing this time. Who would have thought that a single order could directly make it legendary? The stock price just shoots up when it wants to. It feels like a meme stock in the optical communication sector. Those who missed the boat can only drool from the back row, feeling uneasy but still tempted to take a gamble. The veteran retail investors console themselves: better play it safe.

IBM's AI news has been flooding the screen, but the stock price remains lukewarm. Outside institutions increasing their positions seem to be plotting something, and I don't feel secure just watching. Cisco has a bunch of executives reducing their holdings, while institutions are building positions instead—it's a bit odd. The rating says 'moderate buy,' but I can't believe nothing's happening. Verizon went up a bit, but while pensions are reducing positions and paying dividends, they still say 'moderate buy.' With a dividend yield of over 6%, I feel uncertain but still want to place an order 😅. Seagate's rise was absurdly high, and now there's a big pullback, yet institutions are still buying, and executives are reducing holdings... it all feels like a performance. Texas Instruments' directors are busy selling, and the P/E is over 32—no one's saying anything, so I don't have the courage to add more. The more I look, the messier it gets. I tell myself to stay calm, but my hands still tremble a bit.

Home Depot rebounded again today... Just a couple of days ago, I saw their new plans, and their recovery roadmap sounded so convincing, but I didn’t really buy it. They also came up with some 'Inspiration' or 'Creator' thing—why does it feel like every time they launch something new, it just pumps for a bit and then fizzles out? Walmart looks stable, with dividends + Nasdaq, and it still manages to pull off a 2% gain? The options are so active that it’s making me a little tempted, but my hands are shaking—I don’t dare go all in. Nike suddenly surged again because of the Fed rate cut, and even though its rating was downgraded, they still say the outlook is stable. Why does the market love deluding itself so much? Let me talk about Estée Lauder—it’s clearly negative in terms of price changes, but it’s been hitting new highs lately, which is kinda crazy. PG is just...messing around, not sure what they’re waiting for—the more I look, the more confused I get. 😵‍💫

$Home Depot(HD.US) $Walmart(WMT.US) $Nike(NKE.US) $Estee Lauder(EL.US) $Procter & Gamble(PG.US)

Hey, have you guys checked out Fiserv recently... with a market cap of over 30 billion dollars, it's quite large, and the stock price is now around 62 bucks, rising 1.99% on Tuesday for no obvious reason. It seems to cover everything in fintech, from payments to banking solutions, with decent revenue. The 2%+ turnover is interesting. There's a lot of discussion about this stock in the Longbridge community, and people have some complaints about the recent passive wait-and-see attitude of foreign capital and institutions 😅. Historically, its performance has been volatile, with almost no dividends or buybacks, and no major moves from institutions. Honestly, do you feel secure about this stock now?

What the hell are you writing? You should check your logic! XPeng has tens of thousands of orders in hand, and the delivery volume hasn't increased. What does that have to do with that matter? Moreover, the five-seater version of Aito M9 is not as popular as imagined.

Large-scale share buybacks have a substantial boosting effect. $Tencent Holdings (00700.HK)$

【The bull market is coming～Born in despair, grows in hesitation, matures in optimism, and dies in 狂热】

Today's rise is not significant, market participants are still 观望， but I personally believe the bull market has already started. Here are the reasons～

①The market has been declining since 2021, and it's been 4 years now. Time-wise, it's been long enough.

②Severely undervalued, the dividend yields of 优质 stocks in the market are all above 4%, a situation unseen in the past 30 years.

③The market has fallen from 3700 points. The drop may seem small, but in reality, blue-chip stocks have plummeted, with most good stocks halved in value. In terms of magnitude, it's been enough.

④Market participants are disheartened, with very few optimistic. Even confident people like me haven't traded for a long time, not even logging into accounts～numb from the fall.

⑤This round of stimulus isn't just lip service; it's real action, backed by the three giants. There's even a meeting to announce it, letting you know they're serious this time.

⑥The U.S. has entered a rate-cutting cycle, and global funds will flow into A-shares.

Bull market～

Born in despair, grows in hesitation, matures in optimism, and dies in 狂热

$Pien Tze Huang (SH600436)$ $Tasly (SH600329)$ $Yiling Pharmaceutical (SZ002603)$ Kweichow Moutai, Tongrentang, Yunnan Baiyao

Speaking about the experience of being a middle-class individual with both real estate and securities assets over the past few years:

Yesterday, I had a chat with a friend who said that a few years ago, money was easy to make—with hard work, one could earn one to two million a year. She made money like this for three to four years and invested most of it in real estate, thinking she could live a comfortable life on rental income. This mindset was probably a common investment belief back in 2016.

Unexpectedly, in recent years, especially after the pandemic, the situation has drastically changed. Residential property prices have dropped, and commercial properties are even harder to rent out. Among the properties she bought, only the one she currently lives in has retained its value—the others have suffered significant losses, and the commercial properties she purchased even required legal action to protect her rights.

Back then, many people would buy houses and commercial properties as soon as they made money. I once heard in a sales office that some people bought 10 or even 20 apartments and shops, dreaming of living off rental income in the future. These are the ones who have suffered the most in recent years, with their wealth severely shrinking and even burdened by heavy mortgage pressures.

The crazy years of real estate created many wealth miracles but also left behind many original sins.

In the past, China's middle class would typically invest their earnings in real estate and other investments, with daily consumption accounting for only a small portion.

Now, the middle class feels the pinch of shrinking real estate values and a perpetually bearish stock market. Their wealth has significantly diminished—how could they dare to spend lavishly? Now, they can only hope for a stock market rally to recover some of their losses.

#Long time no see! Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges see trading volume exceed one trillion yuan!# #A-shares surge with heavy trading volume—500 billion yuan traded in just one hour!# #Real estate stocks rally—property sector sees collective surge!# $GEMDALE(SH600383)$ $Vanke A(SZ000002)$ $Agile Group(03383)$

Reply: Run for your life, XPeng stock is not for you//:Reply: Keep hyping, it dropped 3 points against the trend

Xiaomi Group-W (01810)

The market performed quite well today, cooling things down a bit. Those who need money before the holiday will have to sell today, and with futures rising so much, the high opening was perfect for letting people exit—it doesn’t change the upward trend!

The policy of reducing existing mortgage rates was announced at yesterday's press conference, which is positive news, but implementation across different regions will take some time.

Therefore, Economic Observer published an article today: The reduction of existing mortgage rates should be swift and implemented in one go.

I agree—it's crucial to quickly pass on the benefits of lower mortgage rates to this group of people, alleviating their financial burden. These individuals, mostly aged from their twenties to forties or fifties, face significant pressure. Reducing their burden will help boost consumption.

If you don't dare to accelerate in extremely undervalued sectors like banks that directly benefit from this policy, it means risk appetite is simply not there, and the bull market hasn't been confirmed. Those chasing brokers and small caps for elasticity should be careful not to get stuck mid-air. To establish a bull market, undervalued financial sectors like banks and insurance must accelerate—just refer to the second half of 2014's trend!

Only when financial heavyweights accelerate can confidence and momentum grow. Otherwise, if heavyweights become dead weight, the index will slide, and those betting on small caps for elasticity will scatter like a disorganized mob.

Banks can both attack and defend—they rise whether there's a bull market or not, just a matter of speed. But for small caps and brokers, it's a life-or-death issue.

$China Merchants Bank(SH600036)$ $Jiangsu Bank(SH600919)$ $TF Securities(SH601162)$

Reply: Full industry chain doesn't necessarily mean profitability. Tesla doesn't have a full industry chain, yet it enjoys the highest profit margin in the industry.//:Reply: I think it's very difficult... BYD's net profit margin is only 5%, and this is under the condition of full industry chain self-research without suppliers taking a cut.

$Tencent Holdings (00700)$ Tencent has entered a technical bull market.

Completely liquidated my position in Heartcore (02400.HK) with a 10% profit. I bought it before Mid-Autumn Festival (as mentioned before), but this round of Hong Kong stock market rally completely left it behind...

I even sold my Bilibili (BILI) position to switch to this, and then Bilibili skyrocketed

Now I've truly become the 'big smart one', thanks to this joke stock.

Well, I'll take the loss like a gambler should, and blacklist this stock for good.

Enough talk, I need to hurry and check out other reliable opportunities in this recovery rally.

Heartcore shareholders, keep playing your 'winning theory' game here, hehe

$Heartcore (02400)$

Xiaomi Group-W (01810)

Hang Seng Index (HKHSI)

A touch of red among hundreds of flowers, you sneaky bastard.

$Alibaba(BABA.US) is doing great, I feel it's coming!

I bought at 110 in 2021, originally wanted to catch the bottom, but lost money for over two years. This time it feels real, the recent uptrend looks very promising!

Hold on, brothers! Persistence will lead to victory!

Is Nvidia going to be bullish or bearish tonight? I'm ready to add to my position.