巨米有财

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a security warning, and some people have started to uninstall Lobster. Will the Tencent free Lobster craze take a sharp downturn? 

$Critical Metals(CRML.US) has indeed had a lot of drama recently: rare earths hitting new highs, additional share issuance, and even coinciding with insider selling, both positive and negative news have come around.

It feels like riding a roller coaster. The story is good, but the volatility is really not something to play with. Actually, seasoned investors like us know very well that additional share issuance isn't a good thing; insiders selling is the real signal. A quick short-term trade is okay, but holding long-term feels a bit shaky....

Cognex was on fire today, soaring straight up +36% to the sky. Anyone who missed this wave of machine vision hype is going to regret it for a while. I was too slow; I was still hesitating whether to chase it a couple of days ago, and now I can only watch others feast. Celestica, despite all the AI tailwinds, ended up plummeting. Got caught right in the trap and got schooled by the market again, feeling like cutting my losses. Old-timers like AT&T and Sony are so stable it's almost boring; holding them won't bring any big surprises. Amphenol, on the other hand, has been quietly outperforming the market. That's just how the market is: those who don't move wait for the wind, those who move get struck by lightning. Lol.

Uranium mining has been really frustrating lately. URA and UUUU are all green again today. It feels like no matter how positive the nuclear power news is, the market just ignores it. Goldman Sachs also joined in to hype UUUU, and it opened lower right away. Can't help but laugh at myself: "Big banks are bullish, I'm shaking and turning bearish." My position is just drifting along. It's not the time to cut losses, and I'm hesitant to add more. How to put it? The bull market of the era still needs time to return. If anyone still has faith, keep commenting. I'll lay low for now.

I personally observe $Direxion FTSE China Bear 3X(YANG.US) and focus on three key points: first, the expectation of RMB and macro liquidity; second, the trend of Chinese tech stocks' weight; third, global risk appetite. It does not purely reflect China's economy but is sensitive to overseas capital sentiment. Therefore, sometimes even when there's no significant change in fundamentals, it can suddenly strengthen due to fluctuations in US dollar interest rates or global risk assets. Many mistakenly believe it's a pure fundamental tool, and this misconception needs to be corrected.

OSCR has been a bit of a roller coaster lately. The sudden departure of the major shareholder scared me, and I thought it would plummet, but then analysts started singing its praises. It feels like the market suddenly has a soft spot for OSCR. Although the gains aren't huge, just not crashing is a blessing. Right now, it's all about cautious holding and waiting. After all, in the health insurance sector, there's prestige but also volatility—lately, it's been like sitting on the edge of your seat watching a show.

This wave of new energy is really making people itch to get in. Stocks like NVX and EOSE have been skyrocketing, leaving no chance to board. By the time you look back, it's all gains.

As for uranium, UUUU pulled back, but I chickened out and didn't add. NNE surged on two pieces of news, but seeing insider selling made me too scared to chase.

Only CEG remains relatively stable. Maybe the nuclear sector still has potential? Sigh, new energy is always like this—missed opportunities and dilemmas. What you hold drops, and what you didn't buy rises.

To be honest, I'm a bit overwhelmed by this pile of new energy stocks. First Solar started rising before I could even react to the last wave. I was just thinking of adding some on the pullback, but it got pulled away again in the blink of an eye. The earnings forecast revision is nice, but the 涨幅... The next second I'm hesitating if I'm being too timid. NextEra's P/E ratio looks expensive at first glance and keeps getting target price adjustments. Investing in such big projects seems way bolder than me. The fundamentals are good, but I just can't get into it. Bloom Energy's momentum is surprisingly strong - the daily highs almost stunned me. This hydrogen energy theme... sigh, I say I don't believe but still clicked in to check. Vistra suddenly surged up in one go, credit ratings pulled up too. Buying natural gas in such large amounts is really something, just looking at it makes me nervous. Constellation is already at 380 but still moving with such extreme volatility - can the market give us a break? The more it's like this, the more I don't want to move but my hands are itchy 🙃 Who's going to stabilize first?

$BIDU-SW(09888.HK) announced that ERNIE is now free and the stock surged. It's all about speculation now; like how Light Chaser Animation might be hyped to an unreasonable level, we should embrace the bubble.

After reading "Capital Returns," it's easy to understand why Marathon Capital has never invested in A-shares and H-shares. Even the legendary investor "T 神" only bought two stocks with very small positions after reviewing many A-shares and H-shares. The fundamental reason is the lack of shareholder returns, which is the core source of investment returns. The main reasons for insufficient shareholder returns include: first, excessive capital liquidity; second, the absence of a capital return culture; and third, excessively high valuations leading to a low base for capital returns.

However, the fact is that Warren Buffett invested in PetroChina in 2003, with an average cost of around HKD 1.62 per share. At that time, PetroChina's P/E ratio was 6.36x in 2002 and 4.3x in 2003. It's hard to argue that PetroChina's macro environment was significantly different from other companies back then—it was still in an era of capital excess and poor capital return culture, making long-term capital returns uncertain. But when prices are cheap enough, a sufficiently large capital return base can already deliver substantial current shareholder returns, making the decision much simpler.

While qualitative analysis is important, quantitative analysis remains quantitative—only hard numbers can support final investment decisions.

Yesterday, I came across an inspiring signature worth sharing: "Be more data-dependent... Stories must always be quantified into valuations."

$BYD(SZ002594)$ The hottest selling car recently is actually the 2025 Han model. After the new version came out, even content creators didn't test it... The promotion was mediocre, but orders keep exploding. The Han EV doesn't even have e3.0evo, let alone CTB...

As for the rumored Han L, the super flagship personally overseen by Chairman Wang, which incorporates the most advanced technologies from the pool, refined over and over again. According to several influencers, this car's appeal is no less than Z9's E3 platform. Combined with the earlier executives' personal share purchases, there's reason to believe Han L will make a huge splash and create another sedan benchmark comparable to the E3 platform

Reply: Brother Li bought PDD, will PDD also be sanctioned? //:Reply: What's the current equity structure of WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics?

$Tencent Holdings (00700)$ Tencent Holdings is not performing well. Your brother Tencent ADR (TCEHY) has risen 7 points. Keep it up!

$China Tianrui Cement (01252)$

First: After reviewing the financial report, other receivables suddenly increased to over 19 billion by the end of 2023, compared to only 5 billion in the interim report and 9 billion at the end of 2022.

This means an increase of 10 billion, which might have been borrowed out. Whether the cash is still there is questionable...

Second: It's a typical case of high debt, and the fundamentals of the cement industry are currently very poor. Moreover, the major shareholder underwent a company swap operation at the end of 2023...

Third: There might have been broker margin calls, triggering a sell-off. Essentially, it's still a liquidity issue....

Fourth: The current price of around 5 yuan is still not low enough compared to the previous high of over 8 yuan (considering other cement stocks have dropped by 90%). This might lead to some funds exiting at the close, but with insufficient buying support, the price could plummet, triggering broker margin call sell-offs.

Finally, there might be some recovery after the resumption of trading, but it's not worth participating in.

保利发展曾经和欧盟一样想去美元化，但欧盟野心太大，一开始就想把美元挤出去，结果被美国搞残了。中国这一次牵头搞的去美元化则更加谨慎，采用货币互换的方式，大家交易都用本国货币，这样美国也不好插手。虽然进展会很慢，不像欧元区一道政令下来就可以全部采用欧元，但是整个基础非常夯实。我们是用贸易的形式来慢慢扩展人民币，逐渐增加人民币在各国中的外汇池。这样，人民币国际化的过程是不可逆的，且最终会导致人民币升值。由于中国对外贸易基本都是顺差，因此在货币互换中我们可以买入对方的农产品、矿石等，而对方则是买我们的工业品。当对方手头上的货币不足以交易时，我们不再继续互换货币，而是指引其跟其他国家贸易，最终实现人民币国际化。在此过程中，美国没有插手的空间，因为整个交易过程没有经过美国的任何体系。趋势是我们会和越来越多的国家签订货币互换协议和互相用本国货币结算的协议，促进人民币国际化。到时候，如果全世界都缺人民币了，就得重新签订协议了。这个过程不会那么快，但我们用贸易的形式扩展人民币，在世界中的外汇池会越来越多，为人民币国际化夯实基础。