According to the Zheshang Securities research report, based on logistics data, since July and August, production areas represented by Guangdong and Yiwu have gradually started to adjust prices, with other surrounding provinces and cities following suit. As of now, the provinces and cities that have announced price increases account for about 80% of the national market share (based on 25H1 data). Based on the price increase trend since July and August, industry price hikes are expected to continue, and both franchisees and listed companies are likely to see performance recovery. With the arrival of the peak season in September, a broader stabilization and rebound in prices is anticipated, which may improve the operational pressure on franchisees and lead to a phased recovery in express delivery performance and sector sentiment.

The main points of Zheshang Securities are as follows:

"Anti-involution" policy defined, express delivery price increases spread across the north and south since July

On July 30, 2024, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China first proposed to strengthen industry self-discipline and prevent "involution-style" vicious competition. In December of the same year, the General Secretary attended the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing the comprehensive rectification of "involution-style" competition and regulating the behavior of local governments and enterprises. On July 1, 2025, the Central Financial Committee meeting reiterated the issue of "governing low-price disorderly competition among enterprises." On July 8, 2025, the Party Leadership Group of the State Post Bureau held a meeting, emphasizing the need to further strengthen industry regulation and improve market system rules in the postal and express delivery sector according to the basic requirements of "five unifications and one openness," clearly opposing "involution-style" competition and legally addressing issues of end-service quality.

According to logistics data, since July and August, production areas represented by Guangdong and Yiwu have gradually started to adjust prices, with other surrounding provinces and cities following suit

On August 4, Guangdong took the lead in issuing collective price increase notices, with the special price for a 0.1kg package from Tongda Rabbit rising to over 1.4 yuan per ticket, while continuously extending the customer lock period to stabilize market shares. In 25H1, Guangdong ranked first in the country with a business volume of 23.43 billion pieces, accounting for 24.5%.

On August 11, Zhejiang and Jiangsu began to adjust prices successively, with a 0.3 yuan increase per ticket for the whole kilogram segment in Yongkang, Zhejiang, and an average increase of 0.4 yuan in Donghai, Jiangsu. In the first half of 25, the express delivery volumes in Zhejiang and Jiangsu accounted for 16.9% and 7.9% of the national total, respectively.

On August 20, multiple express delivery companies in Fujian issued price increase notices to franchise outlets and customers, stating that the minimum price for packages under 0.3kg should not be lower than 1.5 yuan. In the first half of 25, Fujian's express delivery volume reached 3.26 billion pieces, accounting for 3.4% of the national total.

On August 28, express delivery companies in Hubei, Hunan, and Jiangxi successively issued notices to customers, with Hubei increasing prices for packages under 3kg in two phases, raising 0.2 yuan per ticket in September and October. Hunan's overall increase exceeded 0.3 yuan per ticket, while Jiangxi, like Hubei, adjusted prices in two phases, with each phase increasing by 0.2 yuan per ticket. The package volumes in these three provinces accounted for 3.4%, 2.4%, and 2.0% of the national total, respectively, avoiding customer overflow after price increases in Guangdong and Fujian.

On September 4, regions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Henan also began to respond with price adjustments. Starting September 5, all outbound express packages in Henan increased by 0.2 yuan per ticket; within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the receiving prices were adjusted based on enterprise costs, with packages under 0.3kg not to be lower than 1.4 yuan per ticket, and 1.5kg around 2.6 yuan Hebei and Henan are also major express delivery provinces, second only to Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, accounting for 6.0% and 5.7% of the national volume, respectively.

On September 8, the intelligent sorting system of Shandong YTO Express Linyi Smart Innovation Park updated its pricing parameters on time, automatically increasing the price of all outbound express packages by 0.2 yuan. Orders below the cost line were intercepted by the system in real-time. (As Linyi City is the first city in northern China to exceed 2 billion packages shipped annually, its price adjustment serves as a barometer for the northern e-commerce market).

As of now, the provinces and cities that have announced price increases account for about 80% of the national market share (according to 25H1 data statistics). Since the "anti-involution" measures in July, the express delivery price adjustment actions have achieved nationwide coverage from Yiwu in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta in Guangdong, to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and northern areas, with each region implementing targeted pricing strategies based on local conditions. This price adjustment in the express delivery industry is not only a short-term response to cost pressures but also a key step in establishing a long-term mechanism against involution.

Price Increase Elasticity Calculation

Based on the price increase trend since July and August, industry price hikes are expected to continue, and both franchisees and listed companies are likely to see performance recovery. With the peak season in September approaching, a broader stabilization and rebound in prices is anticipated, which may improve the operational pressure on franchisees and lead to a phased recovery in express delivery performance and sector sentiment. According to calculations by Zheshang Securities, assuming that for every 0.1 yuan increase in express delivery prices, the impact on listed companies' per-package express revenue is 0.05 yuan (with listed companies and franchisees each benefiting 50%), thus increasing the net profit attributable to the parent company per package by 0.0375 yuan. The price elasticity for Zhongtong/YTO/Yunda/Shentong when increasing prices by 0.1 yuan is 13%/25%/47%/82%, respectively.

Investment Recommendations

In the context of anti-involution, although the overall express delivery sector faced significant operational pressure in 25H1, with year-on-year performance declining, express delivery companies are expected to recover in performance against the backdrop of short-term price stabilization and long-term competitive ecosystem optimization. We continue to recommend J&T EXPRESS-W (01519) (with sustained package volume growth in Southeast Asia, coupled with expectations of price recovery against involution leading to performance recovery in the domestic market), Shentong Express (002468.SZ) (high performance elasticity), YTO Express (600233.SH), Yunda Corp. (002120.SZ), and Zhongtong Express-W (02057) (industry leader with clear market share targets).

Risk Warning

Economic downturn risks, industry growth lower than expected, worsening express delivery price wars, and incompleteness of statistical information