Deutsche Bank predicts that gold prices will be $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter, a decrease of more than one-fifth (22%) from previous forecasts; the fourth quarter forecast has also been lowered by 17% to $4,800 per ounce, as investors become increasingly cautious about the outlook for U.S. monetary policy and demand for gold investments weakens. However, even after Deutsche Bank revised these two target prices, it still suggests that gold prices are expected to rise from the current level of around $4,140, although its optimism is clearly lower than previous expectations.

Deutsche Bank stated that the repricing by the Federal Reserve, combined with the resilience of U.S. macroeconomic data, is the main factor driving gold prices down. The latest target price for the fourth quarter is based on the expectation that the Federal Reserve will continue to keep interest rates unchanged, but if interest rates are raised three to four times, gold prices could fall to $3,800 per ounce.

Deutsche Bank also mentioned that the continued sell-off of gold ETFs indicates that gold has lost its usual support. Meanwhile, the onshore price of gold in China has shown a discount compared to the New York Commodity Exchange price, meaning that imports will not be a supporting factor for the market. However, another positive factor is that central bank demand continues to provide strong support for gold, and this situation is expected to persist for some time.

Hong Kong gold mining stocks fell today (23rd) along with the market, with blue-chip Zijin Mining (02899.HK) currently at HKD 29.62, down 6.33%. Zijin Gold International (02259.HK) is currently at HKD 99.25, down 7.16%. Shandong Gold (01787.HK) is currently at HKD 19.69, down 4.32%. Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) is currently at HKD 18.13, down 4.23%. China Gold International (02099.HK) is currently at HKD 133, down 7.19%. Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) is currently at HKD 13.23, down 4.34%. Wanguo Gold (03939.HK) is down 5%, and Chifeng Gold (06693.HK) is down 5.2%