JP Morgan published a report indicating that Autohome-S (02518.HK) confirmed in its first-quarter performance that the ongoing automotive downturn continues to exert heavy pressure on its core revenue sources. According to the Passenger Car Association, retail sales of automobiles in mainland China fell by approximately 22% year-on-year in April, worsening from a decline of about 17% in the first quarter. The bank expects limited room for a significant recovery in the second quarter. The report maintains a "neutral" rating on Autohome, using a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 13 times for 2026 as the valuation basis, and lowers the target price from HKD 40 to HKD 32. The target price for Autohome (ATHM.US) in the US stock market is also reduced from USD 20 to USD 17.

The bank anticipates that media revenue declines will narrow quarter-on-quarter due to spending by car manufacturers related to the Beijing Auto Show, but under the industry's low profitability, lead generation revenue will continue to be under pressure. The new O2O transaction service business is still in a very early experimental stage, with low visibility for scaling up. The bank suggests waiting for clearer evidence of a recovery in dealer budgets or progress in new retail business before adopting a more positive outlook.

JP Morgan has lowered its non-GAAP earnings per share estimates for Autohome for 2026 and 2027 by 11% and 3%, respectively, reflecting first-quarter earnings that were below expectations, while revenue forecasts remain unchanged. The bank believes that shareholder returns remain a consistent priority for the company, and the current three-year plan (with annual dividends of no less than RMB 1.5 billion and additional buybacks) will continue until 2026, with discussions on a new three-to-five-year framework planned for the second half of this year