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Minimax 1H26 First Take: In 1H26, Minimax was anchored by the coding boom and the launch of its M3 model. Its valuation slid from a peak of over $55 bn at the start of the year to $13.5 bn, suggesting it may have slipped out of China's top-tier independent model cohort.

That said, the 1H print was not as weak as feared. Enterprise-facing API and the Coding Plan generated $74 mn of revenue in 1H, up 700%+ YoY.

Elsewhere, GPM was under 20%, which is low. R&D spend reached $300 mn, slightly above expectations.

The key, in our view, is the $74 mn B2B revenue in 1H, up 700% YoY. That helps square the post-drop $13.5 bn valuation, which we do not see as unreasonable. After all, Keling secured an $18 bn primary-market valuation even with flattish near-term ARR.

Ultimately, the swing factor is whether Minimax discloses its latest ARR. The company still targets $1 bn by end-26, while some offshore sources estimate Aug ARR at $600 mn. $MINIMAX-W(00100.HK)