Morning Trend | China Merchants Bank shows increased volume in a pullback, is a major player movement opportunity coming?
Yesterday, at the end of the trading session, China Merchants Bank stood out remarkably: there was a sudden surge in volume during the session, and the stock price stabilized at several important support levels where bulls and bears had previously been locked in a stalemate. The activity level in the market significantly increased, and the signs of institutional entry became increasingly clear. In the past two trading days, the 20-day moving average has firmly supported the price, and there is a noticeable sense of locking in short-term positions. Especially during the sudden surge yesterday afternoon, the trading volume surged as if a valve had been opened, and many short-term traders noticed the abnormal capital movements in the market—there was a significant increase in order cancellations and re-submissions, and the market sentiment clearly warmed up during the session.
Looking back at the fundamentals, the main theme of market fluctuations this week is still policy winds, especially the unexpectedly released credit data by the central bank last night, which caused a shift in capital flows within the banking sector. The biggest confidence for bulls now lies in the ample liquidity at the end of the year and the hot expectations for stable growth. The banks, which have been quietly waiting for years, have finally welcomed the benefits of provisioning and interest margin recovery, and both funds and speculative capital are looking for undervalued banks to rotate into as a point of attack.
In the past two days, rumors about major shareholders pledging stocks stirred market sentiment, but there was no obvious panic selling observed in the market. The mainstream view is that "reasonable arrangements + deep safety cushions from large banks" instead provided expectations for left-side funds to avoid risks. However, ultimately, for the rebound to continue, it still depends on the confidence—trading volume! If this wave of price increase cannot sustain a surge in volume and relies on existing funds for repeated speculation, a heavy sell-off by the main force near the highs could easily lead to a pullback or even pressure for funds to retreat. This requires close monitoring of abnormal movements in the market, such as whether the surge is accompanied by large orders sweeping in and whether there are increasing divergences in the intraday charts
Technical Forecast·
