On June 22, Century Securities released a research report on the machinery and equipment industry, indicating that the prices of lithium carbonate and photovoltaics have declined.

In the last week, the indices for machinery equipment, automobiles, and power equipment fluctuated by 9.15%, 0.68%, and 4.16%, ranking 4th, 13th, and 7th among the 31 Shenwan first-level industries, respectively; during the same period, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fluctuated by 3.44%.

1. Lithium Battery: The price of lithium carbonate continues to be under pressure, and EVE's interim performance exceeded expectations. In terms of lithium carbonate prices, the average spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has dropped to the range of 68,000–70,000 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of about 3%–5%, with some low-price transactions even reaching 67,000 yuan/ton. The decline in lithium carbonate prices last week was mainly due to the resumption of production in Jiangxi and a surge in import volumes, leading to concentrated supply pressure. In the short term, lithium prices may continue to fluctuate weakly, with high downstream demand in June providing essential support. Future attention should be paid to the turning point of warehouse receipts, the rhythm of Zimbabwean mines arriving at ports, and the fulfillment of production schedules. EVE pre-disclosed its first interim report for the lithium battery sector last week, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.13 billion to 3.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 95%-110%; the net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to be 2.43 billion to 2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110%-125%. In terms of revenue, operating income is expected to grow by about 60% year-on-year; in terms of profitability, the company has proactively implemented front-end management, diversified its supply chain layout, strategically planned procurement, and prudently used financial instruments, effectively buffering the fluctuations in raw material costs and ensuring the stability of its main business profitability. The company's energy storage battery orders have been scheduled through 2027, with an expected energy storage shipment target of about 110 GWh for the entire year of 2026 (71 GWh for energy storage shipments in 2025). Currently, both supply and demand for lithium batteries are strong, especially with sustained high growth in energy storage demand, and the lithium battery industry chain remains optimistic.

2. Photovoltaics: The prices of the main photovoltaic chain have declined. Last week, prices across various segments of the main chain faced pressure. Since June, as the southwestern region has entered the flood season, the electricity costs for polysilicon companies in resource-rich areas such as Sichuan and Yunnan have significantly decreased, and some previously suspended production capacities have begun to resume operations. Some leading companies are expected to bring about a supply increase of approximately 3,000 tons in June due to production resumption, maintaining the monthly silicon material output at 90,000–91,000 tons. Meanwhile, the total inventory in the silicon material industry remains high at around 520,000 tons, with no substantial reduction observed. On the downstream component side, current market procurement is mainly focused on essential restocking and the delivery of previously awarded orders, with limited release of new terminal demand, leading to a strong overall wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Looking ahead, it is recommended to focus on the profitability recovery of leading component manufacturers, new technology iterations, and opportunities in overseas high-premium markets