The expectation of lithium mine resumption has triggered a reverse fluctuation in the market: the power battery sector c…

Affected by the expectation of the resumption of production at the lithium mine project in Jiangxia, Ningde, on June 22, the power battery sector collectively surged, with stocks such as Ningde Times and EVE rising. Meanwhile, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures fell sharply by 7%, with spot prices declining simultaneously. Industry opinions suggest that although the market is experiencing reverse fluctuations, it is difficult to change the tight balance in the industry

Every reporter: Huang Xinxu Every editor: Pei Jianru

On June 22, the stock prices of the power battery industry chain sector collectively surged. By the close of that day, the stock price of CATL (300750.SZ) rose by 4.45%, EVE (300014.SZ) rose by 5.36%, and Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) rose by 3.88%.

In terms of news, the CATL Jianxiawo lithium mine project, which has attracted significant attention in the lithium market, is expected to resume production.

On June 18, the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources issued a piece of information regarding land use pre-examination and site selection administrative licensing, with the license name being "Construction Project Land Use Pre-examination and Site Selection Opinion." The name of the administrative counterpart is Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Yichun Times), which is an indirectly controlled subsidiary of CATL.

The announcement shows that the license is for the land use pre-examination and site selection of the lithium mining project in Zhenkouli, Yifeng County, and Jianxiawo, Fengxin County, Jiangxi Province. The above licensing decision will take effect from June 17, 2026, and is valid until June 17, 2029. The reporter from Daily Economic News sought verification from CATL, but had not received a response by the time of publication.

Image source: Jiangxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources

Although whether this resumption of production will have a significant impact on the lithium carbonate industry remains a question in the industry, trading in the futures market has already stirred waves. On June 22, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures fell by 7% at one point, reporting at 154,200 yuan/ton. On June 18, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures saw a significant correction, closing down 6.58% at 160,500 yuan/ton.

On the spot market, data from Shanghai Steel Union on June 22 showed that the intermediate price of MMLC battery-grade lithium carbonate (morning session) was reported at 156,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8,750 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day's price (16:30 data).

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In this regard, Mo Ke, founder of Zhenli Research, told reporters: "During each round of certain upward or downward cycles of lithium, there is generally a reverse fluctuation period of about one and a half to two months. The main reason is that the lithium market is not large, making it susceptible to inventory fluctuations, disturbances at the mining end, seasonal changes in major terminal markets, policy adjustments, and other factors. With the introduction of futures, it will also be influenced by the capital game in the futures market." The recent reverse oscillation roughly began on May 14 of this year. So far, the production of batteries and materials is still very strong, and there has been no significant change in the fundamentals."

Zhan Junhao, founder of Fujian Huace Brand Positioning Consulting, also told reporters that the Jiangxiawo lithium mine can only release a small amount of incremental supply this year, and almost all of it will supply CATL's own production lines. The new supply in the circulation market is very limited, and in the short term, it will only bring about emotional adjustments, without causing substantial strong impacts on lithium prices, making it difficult to change the current tight balance in the industry.

At the same time, Mo Ke believes that from the perspective of lithium supply and demand, the Jiangxiawo lithium mine project of CATL is expected to resume production, but its impact on the industry this year will not be significant.

"There are mainly two reasons. First, regarding the industry's judgment on the total lithium supply for this year at the beginning of the year, most industry insiders did not have high expectations for this project; second, even if CATL's Jiangxiawo lithium mine project receives key approvals, considering that relevant regulations, environmental assessments, and approval processes will take a lot of time, the difficulty of resuming production within this year is very high." Mo Ke believes that the capacity release of this lithium mine will have a certain lag.

Daily Economic News