Hwabao WP CSI All Share Investment Banking & Brokerage ETF

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April's inflation rate has surged, with a three-month annualized rate of 7.1%, prompting calls for decisive action from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The Consumer Price Index shows a year-over-year increase of 3.8%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target. Rising energy costs, driven by the Iran war, are contributing to this inflation spike. The Fed has maintained steady rates, but economists warn that inaction could lead to entrenched inflation expectations. Monetary policy rules suggest a federal funds rate target above 5%, indicating a need for rate increases to combat rising inflation effectively.

- The article discusses the urgent need for decisive action from new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh regarding inflation and interest rates, especially given the rising three-month annualized inflation rate of 7.1%.  
- It highlights growing concerns among Americans about living costs, evidenced by dissatisfaction with the current administration's handling of inflation, and notes that supply shocks, particularly from the Iran conflict, are exacerbating price increases.  
- The author argues that without a clear data-driven policy, the Fed risks further escalating inflation expectations, leading to higher borrowing costs and diminished affordability for households.

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April's inflation spike leaves Warsh and the Fed zero excuses not to raise rates

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President Trump issued an executive order increasing scrutiny on non-citizens' banking activities, directing the Treasury to identify red flags related to tax evasion and illegal account ownership. The order is less extensive than a previous proposal requiring banks to collect citizenship data, which industry executives warned would be burdensome. Analysts view the changes positively, as they aim to maintain financial access while enhancing immigration controls.

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Thomson Reuters

Trump backs down from idea of banks collecting citizenship information

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The US economy added 115,000 jobs in April, surpassing expectations of 65,000, easing concerns about a labor market slowdown. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%. Despite a rise in energy prices due to geopolitical tensions, the job growth signals a potential stabilization in the labor market. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current policy stance, with no immediate plans for rate cuts following this positive jobs report. Private payroll growth slowed to 123,000, down from 190,000 in March, but overall job growth appears to be improving.

- The US economy added 115,000 jobs in April, exceeding expectations of 65,000 and indicating resilience in the labor market.  
- Total nonfarm payrolls revisions showed improvements, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%.  
- The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current policy stance as the latest job growth alleviates concerns about a cooling labor market amid rising energy prices.

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Bank of Montreal

April Nonfarm Payrolls Top Views; Fed Seen Holding Rates Again

The U.S. labor market is stabilizing after a year of fluctuations between job gains and losses. Despite challenges such as an energy shock from the Iran war and related uncertainties, the labor market is showing resilience. This stabilization is significant as it indicates a shift away from the previous volatility in employment trends.

- The U.S. labor market shows signs of stabilization after a year of fluctuations in job gains and losses.  
- This stabilization occurs despite challenges from an energy shock linked to the Iran war and uncertainty due to the ongoing conflict.  
- The anticipated damage from these external factors has not materialized as feared, indicating resilience in the labor market.

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After a year of whiplash, US jobs market is stabilizing

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US April CPY 3.8% y/y vs 3.7% expected

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UBS and Morgan Stanley have issued positive outlooks on Chinese equities, highlighting earnings recovery, AI momentum, and low sensitivity to oil price swings. The Shanghai Composite has reached an 11-year high, with China's economy growing 5% year-on-year in Q1. UBS noted that China's power sector relies on oil and gas for only 3% of its needs, providing a buffer against oil price volatility. Morgan Stanley projected significant growth in China's AI sector, estimating it could add 3 percentage points to productivity and boost GDP by 3.5 points by 2035.

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UBS and Morgan Stanley bullish on Chinese stocks amid AI and resilience story

Feds Collins indicated that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation pressures, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a restrictive policy for an extended period. She expressed concerns about inflation not cooling until 2027 and highlighted the risks posed by a prolonged Middle East conflict. While she hopes for potential rate cuts later this year, her overall stance remains hawkish, focusing on the need to anchor inflation expectations amid ongoing economic challenges.

Feds Collins:It’s possible the Fed will need to hike rates to cool inflation pressures

Kevin Warsh is set to lead the Federal Reserve with a reform agenda focused on gradual changes to its balance sheet and inflation analysis. His approach may involve a shift back to a more opaque communication style, moving away from the transparency established post-2007-2009 financial crisis. Warsh faces challenges balancing President Trump's rate-cut demands with current economic data, as inflation remains above the Fed's target. Initial steps may include internal reviews and potential changes to bank reserve rules and communication tools, but significant reforms are expected to take time.

Warsh has big plans for the Fed, but results may take time

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Cleveland Federal Reserve President Harker, who is a voting member of the FOMC in 2026, is scheduled to deliver a speech in ten minutes. According to Jin10, this address is anticipated to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy stance and future economic outlook.

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Cleveland Fed President Harker to Speak in Ten Minutes

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CITIC Securities forecasts a structural bull market for A-shares in late 2026, driven by structural prosperity and concentrated capital. Investors are advised to adopt a strategy focused on 'prosperity as the main theme,' emphasizing two key areas: 'computing power bull' and 'recovery bull.' The AI computing power sector is not yet in a bubble, while the recovery bull is supported by 'PPI-external demand.'

CITIC Securities Co., Ltd.

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STOCKS | CITIC Securities Predicts Structural Bull Market for A-Shares in Late 2026

Hwabao WP CSI All Share Investment Banking & Brokerage ETF(512000.SH)