Aeva Tech

$SIVE 2025 annual report analysis.

TLDR: Extremely Bullish.

Sivers main growth vector is CPO, but they've TAM expansioned to pluggable transcivers + multiple new qualifications/development.

1. "We are currently seeing great interest... testing our DFB lasers across multiple manufacturers in pluggable transceivers"

For pluggable angle, we've seen this with $Jabil(JBL.US) 1.6T LRO already, but annual report hinted they're developing/qualifying with more hyperscaler suppliers.

"Our serviceable markets have now been expanded to include pluggable optical interconnects as well as scale-up and scale-out architectures for co-packaged" (TAM expansion)

2. "Discussions with hyperscalers and pluggable transceiver suppliers indicate a shortage of CW lasers in the coming years"

$Lumentum(LITE.US) already signaled CW laser bottlenecks, and they had to buy externally from competitors. So we kinda guessed CW Laser was a bottleneck.

And this confirmed it, so was wondering about Win semi.

"The partnership announced with high-volume supplier Win Semiconductor in March 2025 now gives us a strong position to meet growing demand"

$SIVE likely has capacity locked in with Win from this nuance, which is exactly what I wanted to know.

This positions Sivers in the CW laser as both a bottleneck and CPO laser architectural leader.

VOLUME PRODUCTION H2 INDICATIONS (BULLISH):

3. "The collaboration positions both companies to address the rapidly growing market for optical AI connectivity, with prototypes to be demonstrated to customers during the first half of 2026 and with the goal of scaling up production by the end of 2026"

H1 is more preproduction, H2 production signaled starting with names like $POET Tech(POET.US).

4. "We are pleased that our largest LIDAR customer will increase production starting in the fourth quarter of 2026"

$Aeva Tech(AEVA.US) start of volume production Q4 with $SIVE = bullish for both.

Revenue floor from LIDAR as their CPO scales.

5. Sivers announced a partnership with LIGHTIUM AG to integrate their CW lasers directly onto TFLN wafers. 3.2T+ cycle. (future proofing)

FYI no decent investor cares about last year's 2025 financials from development contracts aside from Swedish Media/Locals.

Especially when you're forward looking for the 2027-2028 CPO supercycle.

But the hint from you can take away from financials + geography that is $Nokia Oyj(NOK.US) is now the high confidence customer of $SIVE.

TLDR:

-> Win Semi implied capacity lock in during CW laser bottleneck

-> Hints of new group of hyperscaler suppliers testing/qualification for pluggable transcivers, which is massive TAM expansion.

-> New customers for CW lasers

-> Volume production scaling starting H2 for both photonics and lidar.

Source: Serenity

If you don't remember:

$Aeva Tech(AEVA.US) was my long for 4D Physical AI + World Models.

-> LG $50m in $Aeva Tech(AEVA.US) to co-develop FMCW 4D LiDAR, explicitly citing Humanoids

-> LG (Boston Dynamics vision spuplier).

But...

Guess who makes those CW lasers for FM-CW Lidar?

The very same company for scaling photonics with 1.6T+ pluggables with $Jabil(JBL.US) to CPO in $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) Celestial.

Is the likely 4D AI CW laser supplier for humanoids and 4D physical AI.

One highly possible mapping:

-> $SIVE -> $Aeva Tech(AEVA.US) -> $LG -> Boston Dynamics.

Both $SIVE and $Aeva Tech(AEVA.US) were my two longs, but frontier sectors in 4D Physical AI to photonics tend to overlap.

Source: Serenity