Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?
Complete. Here is the key summaryPolymarket traders assign a 70% probability that the S&P 500 will open higher on July 29, 2026. This expectation follows a 0.21% gain on Tuesday driven by rotation into old-economy sectors and falling oil prices. The anticipated rise precedes critical events, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and major tech earnings from Microsoft, Meta, and Qualcomm.
The S&P 500 edged higher on Tuesday as investors rotated into old-economy sectors while semiconductor stocks remained under pressure. Now, Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index will build on those gains at Wednesday’s open.
The S&P 500 closed 0.21% higher at 7,428.78, after opening at 7,395.55. The July 29 Polymarket contract implied a 70% probability that the index will open higher on Wednesday.
Why That Number Matters
Wednesday could prove to be one of the most consequential sessions of the earnings season, with the Federal Reserve set to announce its latest interest rate decision before Chairman Kevin Warsh‘s press conference.
Markets are also awaiting quarterly results from Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT), Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) and Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM) after the closing bell, following earnings earlier in the day from Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE:PG). Investors will be looking for updates on AI-related capital spending and corporate demand, with hyperscaler investment remaining a key driver of semiconductor stocks.
The Bull Case
Tuesday’s rally reflected continued rotation into sectors outside technology, helped by stronger-than-expected earnings and falling oil prices.
The Dow gained more than 500 points as Sherwin-Williams (NYSE:SHW) and Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) rallied after earnings beats, while easing crude prices following diplomatic discussions involving Iran, Saudi Arabia and Oman supported broader market sentiment.
Investors also expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, with CME FedWatch data indicating markets largely anticipate the central bank will remain on hold.
S&P 500 futures were modestly higher early Wednesday, climbing 0.18%.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The July 28 Polymarket contract attracted roughly $33,000 in traded volume, remaining relatively subdued compared with the elevated participation seen earlier this month. The S&P 500 opened at 7,395.55, below Monday’s close of 7,413.18, meaning the contract ultimately resolved “Down.”
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