Breaking: This is why conflicts of interest matter
Back on 2/10, President Trump bought up to $5M in Axon14 days later, ICE posted a $220M contract for 17,800 TasersAnd although the contract doesn't list Axon specifically, the specs match only one product: the Axon TASER 10It's worth noting, Axon makes 90% of all Tasers in the US$Axon Enterprise(AXON.US) stock is up 13% since Trump bought on 2/10The White House says there are no conflicts of interest
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$AppLovin(APP.US) | BofA Securities reiterates 𝐁𝐮𝐲 on 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐋𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐧, maintains 𝐏𝐓 𝐚𝐭 $𝟕𝟎𝟓
Analyst expects increased volatility for AppLovin into the summer with the launch of Axon's self-serve platform, noting their own estimates could be too high.
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All of the largest Trump trades from Q1 and their returns visualized
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APP (Trans): Multiple growth engines firing; ample runway for investment
Dolphin Research presents the earnings call Trans for $AppLovin(APP.US) Q1'26. For the full earnings read-through, cf. 'Applovin: still a sweetheart, has capital moved on?'.
Core highlights recap. 1) Shareholder returns: repurchased 2.23 mn shares in Q1 for $1.0 bn; quarter-end shares outstanding were 336 mn, with approx. $2.3 bn remaining under the buyback authorization.Capital allocation priorities unchanged: invest organically first, then return cash via buybacks. Focus remains on internal growth, with repurchases used to return excess capital.
ApplovinConference Minutes - D
$AppLovin(APP.US) rallied intraday and after-hours, driven by two catalysts. While neither has seen material progress or confirmation, they help ease recent negative sentiment tied to AI and competition with META.
(1) APP is considering building a social platform
This stems from a backend engineering role posted on APP's website to help design and build a next‑gen social platform, stating: 'As a founding Backend Engineer for this venture, you will architect the digital backbone of our next‑generation social platform.' The posting highlights a 'content distribution engine.'
The rationale is to secure 1P user data to improve e‑commerce ad targeting. This is not a one‑off idea; APP previously sought to bid for TikTok and may either build or acquire a social platform.
Dolphin Research has noted that AXON's edge in gaming comes from comprehensive 1P user data — amassed from hundreds of titles built by studios APP acquired, plus data obtained through Adjust's partnerships with game developers.
To deliver similarly strong ROI in e‑commerce, 1P data is also essential. In early tests, APP asked merchants to first spend $600k on META and share META's performance data for backtesting, offsetting its non‑gaming data gap.
(2) Rumor: OpenAI to partner with APP
The chatter originated from a post on X by finance influencer Jonah Lupton (himself long APP) after hours that quickly spread: 'OpenAI mentioned today on their capital raise call that they're now starting to work with $AppLovin(APP.US) (AppLovin) on monetizing ChatGPT through ads.'
Specifics remain unclear and there is no official confirmation yet. Operationally, collaboration faces no hard blockers; OpenAI's monetization push this year makes partnerships with mature ad platforms likely, potentially with multiple partners in parallel.
On APP's Q4 call, mgmt. noted AXON is highly effective for brand discovery among SMBs. That aligns with LLM‑driven insights into user preferences, enabling niche brand seeding and related marketing.
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APP: Shorts kick off the year with another act — what are they saying now?
$AppLovin(APP.US) has been targeted by another short report.
This time it comes from CapitalWatch, a Chinese-run finance outlet with a smaller platform.It lacks the clout of Muddy Waters. Western mainstream media have not followed up, and even the weekend teaser drew little chatter on X.That said, the thesis takes a different tack. For details, see CapitalWatch's website or request the PDF from the assistant. In short...
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Applovin (Minutes): Currently, the week-over-week growth rate of new user spending on the self-service advertising platform has reached 50%
The following is a summary of the 3Q25 earnings call minutes for $AppLovin(APP.US) organized by Dolphin Research. For financial report interpretation, please refer to "Without High Growth and Violent Aesthetics, Is Applovin Still Attractive?" 1. Review of Core Financial Information This Quarter: The upgrade of the core gaming business model drove revenue to increase by 68% year-on-year to approximately $1.405 billion; adjusted EBITDA reached $1.158 billion, up 79% year-on-year, with a profit margin of 82%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous quarter, mainly due to the leverage effect and the moderate alleviation of foreign exchange fluctuations...
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Without the high-growth violent aesthetics, is Applovin still appealing?
$AppLovin(APP.US) released its Q3 2025 financial report after the U.S. stock market closed on November 6th, Eastern Time. The performance slightly exceeded consensus expectations, including current revenue growth and margin optimization, as well as guidance for Q4. The Q4 guidance implies a slowdown in AppLovin's advertising growth, seemingly partially confirming the speculation that the initial response to the self-service advertising platform has been mediocre. Dolphin Research believes that considering the current self-service advertising is still in the testing phase in specific regions, the Q4 guidance alone cannot fully demonstrate the driving effect of self-service advertising...
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Applovin 3Q25 Quick Interpretation: Overall, it was a slightly better-than-expected strong growth, and the post-market reaction aligned with the extent of the surprise.
Before the earnings report, aside from the SEC's scrutiny risk, there were actually some disputes in the market regarding the actual effectiveness of the self-service platform. Some funds believed that merchant feedback was not as optimistic as expected (the number of merchant brands did not significantly increase, and the click-through rate of the Axon webpage did not show a noticeable spike), leading to a wave of valuation adjustments.
Dolphin Research believes that the current self-service platform is not fully launched and is in a specific range of invitation testing. Therefore, the Q4 guidance cannot fully reflect the true effect of the self-service platform. Attention can be paid to the management's related discussions and specific customer adoption disclosures during the conference call.
1. Revenue growth naturally slowed: Third-quarter revenue was $1.405 billion, up 17% year-on-year. If only looking at advertising, the actual growth rate was 68%, which slowed compared to the previous quarter. Fourth-quarter revenue guidance is $1.57-1.6 billion, calculated at the upper end of the range, up 60% year-on-year, continuing to slow slightly.
2. Profit margin continues to optimize: In the third quarter, due to cost control, the adjusted EBITDA profit margin increased by 1.5 percentage points, reaching 82%. This is evidently an extreme state, with the combined rate of the three expenses only at 10%.
This is the current profit level that Applovin has as a pure advertising intermediary platform. With subsequent cost recognition of the new platform and investment in new market expansion, the space for further improvement is relatively small. $AppLovin(APP.US)
