Key Points

• STI closed Monday at 5,675.23, up 0.3% (19.12 points), with the three local banks higher as oil slid.
• $DBS (D05.SG)$ rose 0.7% to S$77.36, $OCBC (O39.SG)$ gained 0.9% to S$31.67, and $UOB (U11.SG)$ added 0.8% to S$42.10.
• Overnight the Nasdaq hit a record (+2.26%) as Meta's AI agent Muse went viral, while WTI crude slid about 4%.
• Watch this week: a heavy slate of Fed speakers dominates the calendar, and Costco reports Thursday after the close.

Singapore Open

Singapore shares closed higher on Monday (Sep 21), tracking a firm regional session as easing oil prices lifted sentiment. The Straits Times Index (STI) added 0.3% or 19.12 points to 5,675.23, with decliners still edging advancers 282 to 262 as 1.2 billion securities worth S$1.6 billion changed hands.

The three local banks led the advance. $DBS (D05.SG)$ rose 0.7% or S$0.50 to S$77.36, $OCBC (O39.SG)$ gained 0.9% or S$0.29 to S$31.67, and $UOB (U11.SG)$ added 0.8% or S$0.32 to S$42.10. The sector keeps drawing support from the Fed's shift back to a higher-rate regime, which props up net interest margins; UOB is seen as the most rate-sensitive of the trio.

$Singapore Airlines (C6L.SG)$ stays under a cloud after UOB Kay Hian cut the carrier to a sell rating, citing jet fuel near all-time highs amid Middle East tensions; Brent still holds above US$100 a barrel despite the pullback. On the STI, Seatrium was the worst performer, down 3.3% to S$2.05, while DFI Retail Group led gainers, up 3.2% to US$3.22.

Singapore Macro

Singapore's economy is riding the AI trade hard. The September MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters lifted the median 2026 GDP forecast to 5.0% from 3.5% in June, powered by an electronics and semiconductor upcycle; non-oil domestic exports (NODX) growth was revised up to 17.0% from 6.1%, and manufacturing to 8.4% from 5.0%. Electronics exports have been surging as AI-related data-centre investment stays elevated, with one report putting the latest jump at 131.8%.

Inflation is contained, with 2026 headline inflation trimmed to 2.1% and core to 1.9%. But the policy angle is what matters for investors: 45% of forecasters now expect MAS to tighten at the October review, which would steepen the Singdollar NEER. The transmission is a bank-versus-REIT split: firmer local rates support bank net interest margins, while leveraged S-REITs face higher financing costs and a stronger Singdollar.

US Overnight

Wall Street rallied on Monday as sliding oil and AI optimism lifted mega-cap tech. The S&P 500 gained 1.49% to 7,764.70, the Dow added 366.19 points (0.71%) to 52,048.83, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.26% to a record 27,122.09, its first new high since June. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped 3 basis points to 4.96%.

The spark was $Meta (META.US)$, up 11.4%, its best day in over a year, after its AI assistant Muse topped Apple's US App Store and Google Play. The viral consumer-AI moment reignited the complex: $Intel (INTC.US)$ jumped 12.14% to $121.78, and $AMD (AMD.US)$ climbed about 10% to a record $615.52, taking its market value past US$1 trillion.

Cheaper oil did the rest. WTI crude sank more than 4% to around US$92 a barrel as US-Iran de-escalation efforts advanced. That eased inflation jitters even as last week's 25-basis-point Fed hike to 3.75%-4.00%, the first since 2023, stays front of mind; markets price roughly a 53% chance of another hike next month.

Asia Pre-Market

US futures are steady-to-slightly-firmer in early Asian trade after Monday's strong close. WTI holds near US$92 a barrel; gold futures settled at US$4,383.9 an ounce, down 0.9% on the prospect of more Fed tightening; Bitcoin climbed about 6% to roughly US$85,000 in a clear risk-on signal.

For the SGX open, the read-through is straightforward: cheaper oil supports $Singapore Airlines (C6L.SG)$ and the wider market, higher-for-longer US rates keep favouring the banks, and the AI-led Nasdaq record is a positive backdrop for Singapore's semiconductor and tech-services names.

This Week's US Earnings Calendar

Consumer names dominate a relatively light week. AutoZone reports before Tuesday's open; Costco is the heavyweight on Thursday.

Earnings Spotlight: Costco

$Costco (COST.US)$ is the week's headline print, due Thursday after the close (about 4am SGT Friday). Consensus calls for fiscal-Q4 earnings of about $6.53 per share, up 11.2% year on year, on revenue of roughly $94.9 billion, up 10.1%. The retailer has already pre-reported net sales near $93.9 billion with digitally enabled comparable sales up 19.5%, so the focus turns to margins, membership-fee income and any fee-hike update. Shares trade near a ~46x forward multiple and need a clean beat to justify that premium.

US Economic Calendar

It is a light data week but a heavy one for Fed speakers, with at least 10 policymaker appearances as markets hunt for the next rate signal. Times below are SGT, with ET in brackets.

One More Thing

This tape is being pulled by two opposing forces: falling oil, which is disinflationary and good for consumers, and a Fed that is hiking rather than cutting, which drags on duration-sensitive assets. For SGX investors the cleanest frame is the bank-versus-REIT split: higher rates lift bank net interest margins and the Singdollar, but raise financing costs for leveraged S-REITs. As long as the AI export boom keeps growth near 5% and oil keeps sliding, banks and manufacturing names should hold up; if inflation forces another hike, expect REITs and high-yield proxies to lag. Friday's durable goods and this week's Fed speakers are the next signposts.

Sources: The Business Times, CNBC, Barchart, Trading Economics.

This briefing is compiled with AI assistance from market data and wire reports, and reviewed by the Longbridge editorial team before publication.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.