- Emerging economies are facing increased pressure from the ongoing Middle East conflict and a potential strong El Niño.
- The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects an 81% likelihood of a severe El Niño from October to December.
- This weather event could lead to rising food prices and hinder economic growth in these vulnerable regions.
- Emerging markets are often analyzed using fundamental charts that include performance, valuations, and earnings revisions.
- These analyses overlook the significant influence of AI-driven companies like TSMC, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Tencent, and Alibaba, which constitute over one-third of the index.
- The article emphasizes that despite these factors, emerging markets have seen no substantial growth over the past 17 years.
- EMXC and FRDM have increased by 39% and 41% in 2026, significantly surpassing the S&P 500's 9% rise.
- Traditional EM benchmarks allocate 30% to China, while ex-China funds shift focus to Taiwan, India, and South Korea, which achieved returns over 55% in 2025.
- FRDM employs a freedom screen to exclude authoritarian regimes and has returned 82% year-to-date.