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Google’s full-stack AI strategy has been unfolding for over a month, and cracks in OpenAI’s circular financing narrative have prompted a seemingly sudden shift in the AI storyline. For Google, this is a build-and-breakthrough arc: incremental upgrades compounded into a step-change, and more importantly, its business positioning has fundamentally shifted. As Anthropic places another 11bn TPU order and Meta advances a collaboration with Google on foundational language models...

Alphabet

GOOGL vs. NVDA: Is the comeback thesis credible?

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In our prior piece 'AI's Original Sin: Is NVIDIA the stimulant AI can’t quit?', Dolphin Research argued that the key shift for the AI supply chain in 2025 is the extreme upstream capture of value, which has thrown the system out of balance. This imbalance is reshaping incentives and risk-taking across the stack.With FOMO running high, AI spend keeps climbing, while rivalry among core players has become more explicit. Capital allocations are increasingly concentrated at the top of the chain.As the internet enters the AI era, regardless of how shifting inputs reshape bargaining power along the value chain, one ultimate question remains. After front-loaded investment in heavy capex, deep tech, and top talent with an approx. five-year depreciation cycle, is this ultimately a bubble?

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2026's Harsh AI Question: after bns AI Capex, Where will Returns Come From?

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The following is Dolphin Research's compiled earnings call Trans for Broadcom (AVGO) FY2025 Q4. For our earnings take, please see 'Broadcom: Calling out NVDA, but did the pioneer blink first?'AVGO fell after-hours as management struck a cautious tone during the discussion. Topics included the AI order outlook and progress with new customers and orders.1) AI orders: The total AI backlog for AI-related components and heterogeneous processors (XPUs) topped $73bn, slated for delivery over the next 18 months (six quarters). They then explained...

Apple

Coherent Corp.

GraniteShares 2x Long AAPL Daily ETF

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AVGO (Trans): Anthropic adds another 10bn;  73bn order is the floor

Financial Analysis

BYTED

MSFD

In the early hours of Dec 12 Beijing time, AVGO released its FY2025 Q4 results after the U.S. close. The quarter ended Oct 2025.1) Overall performance: Revenue was $18.0bn, up 28.2% YoY. This beat the Street's $17.5bn.Revenue rose $2.0bn QoQ, driven by AI-related demand. AI remained the key driver.GPM was 68%. Excluding acquisition amortization and restructuring costs, adj. GPM was 76.6%, down 17bps QoQ...

ByteDance

Direxion Daily MSFT Bear 1x Shares

AVGO vs. NVDA: Did the challenger blink first?

AVGO First Take: Revenue and GPM were in line with market expectations this quarter, with growth largely driven by AI. AI revenue reached $6.5bn, up $1.3bn QoQ on increased TPU volume ramp. On an operating basis, excluding acquisition-related amortization and restructuring, GPM was 76.6%, down slightly QoQ. The decline reflects a mix shift toward lower-margin ASIC. For next quarter, the company guided revenue to $19.1bn, above Street estimates, driven by AI. AI revenue is expected to reach $8.2bn (vs. Street $7.0–7.5bn), implying a $1.7bn QoQ increase. Despite a solid print and guide, investors are more focused on progress with new customers and orders for next year. Given the previously disclosed large AI wins, the market is watching the company's growth trajectory into next year and beyond, including whether it can secure additional customers and orders. With Google's Gemini performing well, it offers an alternative compute stack beyond NVIDIA. Investors also expect Broadcom to win share in AI chips, a view reflected in its top-tier valuation. As a result, the focus this quarter is on management's updates and outlook for AI order flow next year and beyond. For more, follow Dolphin Research's subsequent notes and management Trans. $Broadcom(AVGO.US)

Today’s Key News Recap

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1211 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) The Fed cut rates by 25bps to 3.50%-3.75%, the third cut this year, in line with market expectations. It also announced $40bn of short-dated Treasury purchases over the next 30 days.Powell ruled out further hikes, saying rates are at the upper end of neutral. The message signals a shift from fighting inflation to supporting growth, even preempting a recession.🐬 Single stocks 1) $Microsoft(MSFT.US). CEO Satya Nadella made public remarks in Bengaluru, India...

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Allianzim US Large Cap Buffer10 Mar ETF

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Direxion Daily MSFT Bull 2X Shares

T-Rex 2X Long Microsoft Daily Target ETF

Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Microsoft MSFT ETF

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Microsoft's Agent AI Debuts Friday; LVMH Greater China Head Joins Pop Mart | Daily News Recap

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1210 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) Market chatter suggests a RMB 400bn mortgage interest-subsidy program has been set. The standard subsidy rate would be 1%, while loans tied to risk regions and distressed developers could get 2%.No official document has been released yet. If implemented, it would directly lower borrowers' mortgage costs.Enhanced subsidies for risk regions and developer-linked loans would precisely ease localized housing-market stress and reduce developers' funding-chain risk. It would also support new-home demand...

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Mortgage subsidy rumors roil markets; Fed decision due tonight | Daily News Recap

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On Dec. 7, the long-running WBD sale neared the finish line as NFLX emerged as the buyer. The company agreed to acquire WBD's assets excluding cable TV for $72bn and to assume $10.7bn of WBD debt.The deal is still subject to regulatory approval due to antitrust concerns. About this acquisition...

Disney

Direxion Daily AMZN Bull 2X Shares

Paramount Skydance Corporation - CL B

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Paramount Global

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HSBC HOLDINGS

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HSBC HK SDR 5to1

NFLX breaks its own rules, makes an RMB 80bn bet to become No.1 in film & TV

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1208 ｜Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) The CPC Politburo met on Dec. 8 to discuss the 2026 economic agenda and reviewed the 'Regulations on the Party's Leadership over Law-Based Governance'. It set the tone for next year: fiscal policy to be more proactive, monetary policy moderately accommodative. 🐬 Single Stocks 1) $Robinhood(HOOD.US) Robinhood said in a Sunday blog post...

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Politburo sets 2026 economic agenda, HOOD pushes into SE Asia crypto | Daily News Recap

Alibaba

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AI glasses are regarded as the 'next-generation personal mobile gateway' and are also the most likely mobile terminal to challenge smartphones.

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Alibaba, ByteDance, and Li Auto are rushing into the market; are AI glasses becoming the 'next big thing'? (Minutes)

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