According to TrendForce's latest memory price survey, the overall DRAM landscape in Q3 continues to be extremely tight. However, due to the downward revision of consumer application demand and the high base effect, the increase in contract prices is expected to converge, with a projected quarterly increase of 13-18%. The main demand for NAND Flash is still supported by AI inference and the construction of large data centers, but since contract prices have reached historical highs, consumer clients have reached their limit in price tolerance amid slowing demand. It is estimated that the overall NAND Flash contract price will increase by 10-15% quarterly, a significant reduction compared to previous quarters.

In the Q3 PC DRAM market, the inventory replenishment demand from PC OEMs will support procurement momentum. However, as laptop inventory further rolls over to high-cost raw materials, it will drive up prices across the entire supply chain, impacting annual shipment volumes. Although manufacturers are delivering according to the agreed supply volume with PC OEMs and module manufacturers for 2026 on a quarterly basis, the continuous transfer of production capacity to server applications is compressing the supply scale of PC DRAM.

For Server DRAM, general-purpose servers equipped with x86 CPUs and RDIMM solutions focus on multitasking and continue to be the main memory configuration for agentic AI application scenarios. With the gradual improvement in CPU supply, it is estimated that server shipments will remain strong until 2027, supporting RDIMM consumption and inventory building needs in the second half of 2026. The supply-demand imbalance for server DRAM continues in Q3, but some buyers' procurement prices are limited by long-term agreement (LTA) regulations, resulting in a reduction in overall price increases.

In Q3, smartphone brands need to balance the high LPDRAM costs by raising end-user prices, which is detrimental to overall sales. Under the premise of more conservative production plans and procurement strategies, LPDRAM demand may further decline. However, due to manufacturers reallocating output ratios considering AI demand, LPDRAM supply is expected to remain tight, continuing to support upward contract prices.

In the Graphics DRAM segment, NVIDIA RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell did not create the expected new wave of GDDR7 demand, and with the overall shipment volume of laptops being revised down, the corresponding demand for GDDR6/7 is weak. On the other hand, manufacturers are flexibly shifting production capacity to other mainstream products, thus the overall supply of Graphics DRAM remains tight, with GDDR6/7 prices rising in line with mainstream DRAM products.

In Q3, demand for traditional consumer DRAM such as TVs and set-top boxes remains sluggish, but niche applications like automotive, server SSDs, and networking are performing relatively well. Additionally, the effect of major manufacturers accelerating their exit from consumer DRAM is still unfolding, with no significant shrinkage in actual demand. Furthermore, major manufacturers are implementing production reduction strategies, and Taiwanese companies' expansion of DDR4 production capacity cannot fill the gap left by the exit of major manufacturers, keeping contract prices on the rise Observing the client SSD market, due to PC OEM manufacturers having stocked up in advance in the first half of the year, and the end market being supported only by commercial models, OEM inventory levels are relatively high, significantly reducing the willingness to accept a new round of price increases. In this situation, manufacturers have begun to strategically adjust their pricing attitude towards client SSDs to maintain smooth shipments, leading to a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers compressing the contract price increase.

In the Enterprise SSD segment, buyers are gradually accumulating inventory due to CPU shortages, but manufacturers are expanding enterprise SSD production capacity. As the NVIDIA Vera Rubin platform gradually ships and consumer demand remains weak, supply of enterprise SSDs has increased. However, due to internal DRAM capacity shortages, the supply of small-capacity, high-speed enterprise SSD products remains tight, and overall prices continue to rise.

Smartphone brand manufacturers have completed most of their new device production and procurement in advance by the first half of 2026. In the second half of the year, apart from the flagship models with rigid upgrade demands for UFS 4.0, the stocking momentum for mid-to-low-end products is quite sluggish. Due to the overall weakening demand, the supply of eMMC/UFS, which had been severely compressed in the past, appears relatively sufficient in the third quarter, and the bargaining power of sellers is limited by the OEMs' inability to chase prices and weak demand, leading to a trend of flattening contract price increases for eMMC/UFS.

In the NAND Flash Wafer sector, demand for retail markets, USB drives, memory cards, and other consumer peripherals continues to be weak. Module manufacturers' clients are also unable to bear the high prices due to high upstream costs and a weak downstream market, keeping demand at a low point. Although manufacturers still prioritize high-margin AI and server product lines in their capacity allocation, the total amount of wafers released to the market remains limited. However, in the context of extremely low buying interest for wafers, the contract price increase will significantly converge