As Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX), the American commercial aerospace and communications giant, marks one month since its listing on the US stock market, its stock price has experienced significant fluctuations, drawing widespread attention from the international capital market regarding the speculative risks associated with artificial intelligence (AI) and technology concept stocks. Market analysis indicates that as investors rationally reassess the company's core business revenue structure and actual profitability, the stock price has significantly retreated from its highs, leaving retail investors facing substantial unrealized losses.

Trading data shows that SpaceX officially entered the US public market on June 12 this year, with its IPO (Initial Public Offering) priced at $135 per share. Driven by market speculation, the stock price soared to $176 on its first trading day, ultimately closing at $160.95, setting the record for the largest IPO in the history of global capital markets. In the following week, the stock continued to attract capital, reaching an all-time high of $225 during trading, with its total market capitalization briefly surpassing that of Amazon and Microsoft.

Regarding the explosive rise in stock price, CFRA analyst Keith Snyder pointed out that aside from CEO Elon Musk's personal influence, the core catalyst was the market's positioning of the company as an "AI concept stock." Previously, SpaceX completed the acquisition of Musk's AI startup xAI (now renamed SpaceXAI) and began leasing data center computing power assets to other tech companies. Willy Lee, an investor at the primary market intermediary Neosteller, also confirmed that the market's earlier enthusiasm for the stock was essentially a capital hunt targeting the AI narrative.

However, the concept speculation failed to sustain its valuation premium in the long term. As SpaceX's actual revenue path gradually became clearer, market focus shifted back to its core business of manufacturing launch rockets and building the Starlink satellite communication network. Due to controversies surrounding local large data center projects, Starlink announced price reductions in the Memphis area of Tennessee, which directly triggered an 8% drop in SpaceX's stock price in a single day. Against the backdrop of an overall tech stock correction, SpaceX faced concentrated selling. On July 7, the stock was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index, with the Nasdaq closing down 1.7% that day, while SpaceX's decline reached as high as 4.4%. By the end of the first month of trading, SpaceX's stock price had retreated to around $145 per share, giving back about 35% from its historical peak.

Industry analysts generally believe that the current valuation correction has led to a shrinkage of assets for retail investors who bought in at high levels. Snyder noted that from the perspective of fundamental business performance, there is still a risk for SpaceX's stock price to further dip to $115, at which point its overall valuation would be approximately $1.5 trillion, with the current speculative characteristics somewhat resembling those of meme stocks driven by internet sentiment. Samuel Kerr, head of equity capital markets analysis at Mergermarket, added that while early institutional investors participating in the IPO allocation and internal shareholders still have unrealized gains, However, ordinary investors who bought in the early stages of the IPO have all been trapped.

Despite the sluggish stock price trend, Musk's long-term revenue expectations for the company remain aggressive. After the IPO boosted his personal fortune, Musk claimed that SpaceX would achieve an annual revenue of $1 trillion by 2030. According to financial data disclosed for compliance with the IPO, SpaceX's total revenue last year was only $18 billion, and it is currently still operating at a loss. The long-term revenue target proposed by Musk is about 55 times its current scale. Additionally, on June 16, when the stock price was at a high, SpaceX used its own shares as currency to fund a $60 billion acquisition of the AI programming startup Cursor in an all-stock transaction. Keer commented that this move completed an asset takeover through high-level cashing out, demonstrating a high level of capital operation skills.

Currently, international financial institutions and investors are closely watching SpaceX's first quarterly report after the IPO, expected to be released in early August. Investment bank Morgan Stanley maintained an optimistic outlook in a research report released last week, setting a target price of $300 for SpaceX. Market analysts emphasized that in addition to the earnings report in August, the company will also face the "unlocking period" for employee stock ownership, during which the increase in circulating shares and the disclosure of fundamental data may trigger a new round of capital games and significant volatility in the stock