0818 | Dolphin Focus

🐬 Macro/Industry

1. The 30Y UST yield rose to 5.32%, the highest since 2007, with the 10Y nearing 5%. US-Iran talks broke down, driving a three-day oil rally, while global stocks and bonds weakened and Japan equities fell over 2%.

Long-end rates face triple headwinds from wider fiscal deficits, oil-driven inflation, and large-scale AI infra issuance, weighing on equity multiples and risk appetite. Higher long-end yields compress valuations for long-duration tech growth, while geopolitics lifting oil reinforces sticky inflation, keeping risk assets under pressure near term. Ongoing financing for compute infra adds to UST supply, tilting flows toward short duration and cash-flow-certain assets.

🐬 Single Stocks

1.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Nvidia announced a $1.5bn investment in SB Energy, securing an 8GW AI compute campus in Ohio, with OpenAI as the sole tenant under a long-term compute lease. The deal marks Nvidia’s move upstream from pure GPU supply into LPS (land/power/shell), using equity to bind OpenAI’s long-term compute procurement and lock in foundational AI factory resources. This strengthens its compute ecosystem moat and is a landmark execution of the AI infra model.

2.$Tesla(TSLA.US)

Media report Tesla plans to open Cybercab for public access in Austin as early as Aug; the vehicle has no steering wheel or brake pedal and is positioned as a Robotaxi. Cybercab is the core vehicle for Tesla’s AV commercialization loop, shifting from closed tests to public trials and marking a key milestone. However, AV regulation, operating costs, and ramp timing remain uncertain, so the commercialization timeline needs close tracking.

3.$Meta Platforms(META.US)

Twenty-nine US states jointly sued Meta, alleging addictive product design on Facebook and Instagram that induces teen dependence, with the case set for an Aug 18 hearing; the maximum penalty could reach $1.4tn. The $1.4tn is a theoretical cap, and the market broadly expects a much lower eventual payout. If the ruling goes against Meta, it could force changes to core features like infinite scroll, hitting ad traffic fundamentals and dampening risk appetite near term.

4. Dolphin on earnings and calls

Huazhu: 'Huazhu: Withstanding Pressure, Showing True Leadership' and 'Huazhu Group (Trans): $2.5bn Return, Store Openings On Track'

Geely: 'Geely: Overseas Surge, Replaying the Next BYD?' and 'Geely Auto (Trans): Near-RMB 10bn Net Profit, New CEO Targets 920k Exports'

Xiaomi and Hesai report tonight. BIDU will also release results.

🐬 Top Gainers

A-shares: agricultural products, food distributors, tobacco.

HK: agricultural products, insurance brokers, research & consulting services.

US: textiles, electronic components, copper.

🐬 Watch Tomorrow

1) Kuaishou will report results. Focus Media will also release.

Risk disclosure and statement. Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure