MS-O

I don't like or dislike $SIVE:

The information discovery edge & forward bull narrative has been priced in:

Where Sivers makes a genuinely necessary component, InP external lasers that silicon can't replace, w/ four legit AI design-ins:

1. Ayar light source

2. $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) reference design

3. $POET Tech(POET.US) Optical Interposer ELS

4. $Jabil(JBL.US) 1.6T LRO pluggable module

That is the true, defensible bull case + it's not a mirage.

Further highlighted by:

- JP Morgan disclosed a ~5% stake

- index inclusions have happened

- multiple analysts now publish

But now:

You're essentially betting on Sivers' conversion.

I.e. will the design-ins turn into qualified volume revenue, and when?

The same story has repeated itself with hundreds of growth names over the years - $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) and early $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) etc.

Sivers aren't an early stage start-up, and management have acknowledged huge, growing interest in the company now.

So the pressure should be on them to deliver volume ramps in accordance with widely porported timelines of 2027-2028.

Another collaboration announcement like $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) wouldn't signal that, but it could definitely lead to another re-rate higher given their tiny MC.

But ideally, at some point soon, you do wanna see some sort of POs etc that confirms their $799M "opportunity" pipeline.

No idea when that happens given all the conflicting info this week on CPO timelines (SemiAnalysis, MS etc).

Imo, it's turned into a waiting game for Ayar / $Jabil(JBL.US) / $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) - which then go to ship to end customers like $AMD(AMD.US) / $Microsoft(MSFT.US) / $Amazon(AMZN.US).

And what % of the TAM Sivers can secure given they all multi-source laser supply from other places like $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) or $Macom Tech(MTSI.US) or $Lumentum(LITE.US) - who are known to have laser shortages.

Will continue to hold my position - don't see any point in liquidating large % gains rn.