MSFT260424C422500.US

In fact, it's impossible for a person to be right at every step. If you made a wrong choice, you made a wrong choice. Don't always bully your past self. He was standing alone in the fog back then, also very confused. The path he saw at that time was inherently blurry. Even if given another chance, with the knowledge he had then, he would still make the same choice. Don't use today's clarity to blame yesterday's self. The past cannot be changed, but the future is still within reach. Only by letting go of that person from the past can you fulfill the person you are today.

$Tesla(TSLA.US)$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Direxion Daily Korea Bull 3x Shares ETF(KORU.US)$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

It seems like a time when many people are panicking now, especially those holding leverage. Saying too much is useless right now; you can only trade drawdown for the chance to break even later. Don't cut your losses. If the distance to your cost basis is no more than three points and you can still bring yourself to sell, it's better to avoid the storm.

Financial consumption stocks are still rising, and Apple is also still rising. It's unlikely that capital will flow into the tech sector at this moment. You won't know when most institutions are bottom-fishing. By the time you realize it, the price has already risen. Then you start chasing highs and get trapped again.

There are plenty of opportunities in the AI era; it's just beginning. I was afraid of missing out on getting on board earlier, so I bought Microsoft at 420. After the subsequent earnings report, it plummeted, and I haven't broken even yet. So you can wait patiently without fear, provided you can hold on and the company's fundamentals are sound. If there's no earnings support and there are large expenses, then forget it.

If you currently have SK Hynix leverage positions and they've dropped significantly, don't watch the market anymore. It won't recover in the short term. Wait for an opportunity. If you have cash reserves, add to your position if it drops another 10 points. If not, stop watching for now. Focus on your work and life. Use the drawdown and time to win back your principal; that is the correct approach.

This is just my personal opinion for reference.

The judgment in January (inspired by Zhihu influencers: deep van and ai) is that Oracle's debt-financed investment is too large (under high interest rates), but there is currently no profit at all on the AI application side. Data center construction requires huge investment, but the returns are far off.

Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have other businesses, a solid internet foundation, and historical accumulation to support them. Oracle is in a precarious position! 😝

Comparing the current AI infrastructure investment boom to the 19th-century American railroad investment and construction frenzy, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) is more like the one selling rails, while Oracle is the one buying rails to build the railroad.

During the railroad investment frenzy, those building the railroads went bankrupt. The rail sellers made huge profits at first, but as infrastructure became overbuilt and demand fell, profits would be squeezed. However, the risk is lower than that of a company like Oracle, which borrows heavily and goes all-in on pure railroad construction with full leverage.